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Evaluation of the Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) Tool 2011 prototype

May 3, 2012
  |
Project Report
Author:
Richard A. DeLaura
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-388
Topic:
decision support
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) tool combines convective weather impact forecasts from the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) with departure demand forecasts from the MITRE tfmCore system to aid traffic managers in formulating plans to mitigate volume congestion in fair weather and during convective weather impacts. An initial prototype was deployed in the summer of 2010 for a very limited field evaluation. A second, more comprehensive field evaluation of the "Phase 2" IDRP prototype was performed in the summer of 2011. The key focus of IDRP is the planning and implementation of departure reroutes to avoid weather impacts and volume congestion on departure fixes and routes. This evaluation assesses three facets of the IDRP prototype critical to the successful realization of its concept of operations: 1. performance of weather impact forecasts from RAPT and departure demand forecasts from tfmCore, 2. effectiveness of reroute decisions, and 3. potential impacts on procedures and decision making based on observations of IDRP use in the field. The evaluation concludes with suggestions for future enhancements to improve the performance and realization of potential benefits in operational use of IDRP.
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Summary

The Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) tool combines convective weather impact forecasts from the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) with departure demand forecasts from the MITRE tfmCore system to aid traffic managers in formulating plans to mitigate volume congestion in fair weather and during convective weather impacts. An initial prototype...

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Evaluation of the Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) Tool 2011 prototype

Hazard alerting based on probabilistic models

March 1, 2012
  |
Journal Article
Author:
James P. Chryssanthacopoulos
…
Published in:
J. Guidance, Control, Dynamics, Vol. 35, No. 2, March-April 2012, pp. 442-450.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Hazard alerting systems alert operators to potential future undesirable events so that action may be taken to mitigate risk. One way to develop a hazard alerting system based on probabilistic models is by using a threshold-based approach, where the probability of the undesirable event without mitigation is compared against a threshold. Another way to develop such a system is to model the system as a Markov decision process and solve for the hazard experiments reveal that an expected utility approach performs better than threshold-based approaches when the dynamic stochasticity is high, where accounting for delays or changes in the alert becomes more important. however, for certain system parameters and operating environments, a threshold-based approach may provide comparable performance.
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Summary

Hazard alerting systems alert operators to potential future undesirable events so that action may be taken to mitigate risk. One way to develop a hazard alerting system based on probabilistic models is by using a threshold-based approach, where the probability of the undesirable event without mitigation is compared against a...

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Hazard alerting based on probabilistic models

U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Field Demonstration #2: Final Report for Staffed NextGen Tower (SNT)

March 1, 2012
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Project Report
Author:
Maria Picardi Kuffner
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-389
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Staffed NextGen Towers (SNT), a research concept being developed and validated by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), is a paradigm shift to providing air traffic control services primarily via surface surveillance approved for operational use by controllers instead of the existing out-the-window (OTW) view at high-density airports. SNT was exercised as a prototype installed at the Dallas-Fortworth International Airport (DFW) during a two-week demonstration in the spring of 2011. MIT Lincoln Laboratory conducted this demonstration for the FAA in coordination with DFW air traffic control (ATC) and the DFW airport authority. This proof-of-concept demonstration used live traffic and was conducted by shadowing East tower operations from the DFW center tower, which is a back-up facility currently not typically used for air traffic control. The objective of this SNT field demonstration was to validate the supplemental SNT concept, to assess the operational suitability of the Tower Information Display System (TIDS) display for surface surveillance, and to evaluate the first iteration of prototype cameras in providing visual augmentation. TIDS provided surface surveillance information using an updated user interface that was integrated with electronic flight data. The cameras provided both fixed and scanning views of traffic to augment the OTW view. These objectives were met during the two-week field demonstration. DFW air traffic provided twelve controllers, three front line manager (FLMs), and three traffic management coordinators (TMCs) as test subjects. The twelve National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) DFW controllers "worked" the traffic according to their own techniques, using new hardware and software that included high resolution displays of surveillance data augmented by camera views. This equipment was designed to provide enhanced situational awareness to allow controllers to manage increased traffic volume during poor visibility conditions, leading to increased throughput. Results indicated that the likelihood of user acceptance and operational suitability is high for TIDS as a primary means for control, given surface surveillance that is approved for operational use. Human factors data indicated that TIDS could be beneficial. However, major technical issues included two display freezes, some incorrectly depicted targets, and display inconsistencies on TIDS. The cameras experienced numerous technical limitations that negatively influenced the human factors assessment of them. This report includes the percentages of human factors and technical success criteria that passed at DFW-2.
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Summary

Staffed NextGen Towers (SNT), a research concept being developed and validated by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), is a paradigm shift to providing air traffic control services primarily via surface surveillance approved for operational use by controllers instead of the existing out-the-window (OTW) view at high-density airports. SNT was exercised...

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U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Field Demonstration #2: Final Report for Staffed NextGen Tower (SNT)

A tree-based ensemble method of the prediction and uncertainty quantification of aircraft landing times

January 22, 2012
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Conference Paper
Author:
Yan Glina
…
Published in:
10th Conf. on Artificial and Computational Intelligence, 22 January 2012.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Accurate aircraft landing time predictions provide situational awareness for air traffic controllers, enable decision support algorithms and gate management planning. This paper presents a new approach for estimation of landing times using a tree-based ensemble method, namely Quantile Regression Forests. This method is suitable for real-time applications, provides robust and accurate predictions of landing times, and yields prediction intervals for individual flights, which provide a natural way of quantifying uncertainty. The approach was tested for arrivals at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport over a range of days with a variety of operational conditions.
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Summary

Accurate aircraft landing time predictions provide situational awareness for air traffic controllers, enable decision support algorithms and gate management planning. This paper presents a new approach for estimation of landing times using a tree-based ensemble method, namely Quantile Regression Forests. This method is suitable for real-time applications, provides robust and...

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A tree-based ensemble method of the prediction and uncertainty quantification of aircraft landing times

A new approach for designing safer collision avoidance systems

January 1, 2012
  |
Journal Article
Author:
Mykel J. Kochenderfer
…
Published in:
Air Traffic Control Q., Vol. 20, No. 1, January 2012, pp. 27-45.
Topic:
collision avoidance
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System significantly reduces the risk of mid-air collision and is mandated worldwide on transport aircraft. Engineering the avoidance logic was costly and spanned decades. The development followed an iterative process where the logic was specified using pseudocode, evaluated in simulation, and revised based on performance against a set of metrics. Modifying the logic is difficult because the pseudocode contains many heuristic rules that interact in complex ways. With the introduction of next-generation air traffic control procedures and surveillance systems, the logic will require significant revision to prevent unnecessary alerts. Recent work has explored an approach for designing collision avoidance systems that will shorten the development cycle, improve maintainability, and enhance safety with fewer false alerts. The approach involves computationally deriving optimized logic from encounter models and performance metrics. This paper outlines the approach and discusses the anticipated impact on development, safety, and operation.
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Summary

The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System significantly reduces the risk of mid-air collision and is mandated worldwide on transport aircraft. Engineering the avoidance logic was costly and spanned decades. The development followed an iterative process where the logic was specified using pseudocode, evaluated in simulation, and revised based on...

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A new approach for designing safer collision avoidance systems

Position validation strategies using partially observable Markov decision processes

October 16, 2011
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Conference Paper
Author:
Mykel J. Kochenderfer
…
Published in:
Proc. 30th IEEE/AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference, DASC, 16-20 October 2011, pp. 4A2.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The collision avoidance system that is currently deployed worldwide relies upon radar beacon surveillance. With its broad deployment over the next decade, aviation surveillance based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) reports may reduce the need for frequent beacon interrogation over the communication channel, but there is a risk of ADS-B providing erroneous data to the collision avoidance system, resulting in a potential collision. Hence, there is a need to use beacon interrogation to periodically validate ADS-B position reports. Various threshold-based validation strategies based on proximity and closure rate have been suggested to reduce channel congestion while maintaining the reliability of the collision avoidance system. This paper shows how to model the problem of deciding when to validate ADS-B reports as a partially observable Markov decision process, and it explains how to solve for the optimal validation strategy. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated in simulation.
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Summary

The collision avoidance system that is currently deployed worldwide relies upon radar beacon surveillance. With its broad deployment over the next decade, aviation surveillance based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) reports may reduce the need for frequent beacon interrogation over the communication channel, but there is a risk of ADS-B...

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Position validation strategies using partially observable Markov decision processes

The Tower Flight Data Manager prototype system

October 16, 2011
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Conference Paper
Author:
Vineet Mehta
…
Published in:
DASC 2011, 30th IEEE/AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference, 16-20 October 2011, pp. 2C5.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) will serve as the next generation air traffic control tower automation platform for surface and local airspace operations. TFDM provides three primary enhancements over current systems: consolidation of diverse data and information sources into a single platform; electronic data exchange, including flight data entries, within and outside the tower cab; and a suite of decision support capabilities leveraging TFDM's access to external data sources and systems. This paper describes a TFDM prototype system that includes integrated surveillance, flight data, and decision support display components. Enhancements in airport configuration management, runway assignment, taxi routing, sequencing and scheduling, and departure route assurance are expected to yield significant benefits in delay reduction, fuel savings, additional capacity, improved access, enhanced safety, and reduced environmental impact. Data are provided on system performance and air traffic controller acceptance from simulation studies and a preliminary field demonstration at Dallas / Ft. Worth International Airport.
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Summary

The Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) will serve as the next generation air traffic control tower automation platform for surface and local airspace operations. TFDM provides three primary enhancements over current systems: consolidation of diverse data and information sources into a single platform; electronic data exchange, including flight data entries...

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The Tower Flight Data Manager prototype system

A field demonstration of the air traffic control Tower Flight Data Manager prototype

September 19, 2011
  |
Conference Paper
Author:
Hayley J. Reynolds
…
Published in:
HFES 2011, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 55th Annual Mtg., 19-23 September 2011, p. 61-65.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The development and evaluation process of the Tower Flight Data Manager prototype at Dallas Ft. Worth airport is described. Key results from the first field evaluation are presented, including lessons learned about making electronic flight information acceptable to controllers. Iteration of the field evaluation methods are discussed for practitioner benefit.
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Summary

The development and evaluation process of the Tower Flight Data Manager prototype at Dallas Ft. Worth airport is described. Key results from the first field evaluation are presented, including lessons learned about making electronic flight information acceptable to controllers. Iteration of the field evaluation methods are discussed for practitioner benefit.

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A field demonstration of the air traffic control Tower Flight Data Manager prototype

Concept of operations for the Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) tool

September 12, 2011
  |
Project Report
Author:
Hayley J. Reynolds
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-379
Topic:
decision support
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

A concept of operations for the Integrated Departure Route Planner (IDRP) tool is proposed to address issues in the area of departure route management. By combining information about weather and departure demand, IDRP can both identify potential demand/capacity imbalances and recommend a rerouting option, if appropriate. To effectively implement IDRP into the operational environment, a twophase approach is suggested. The first phase appends IDRP functionality onto the CIWS/RAPT platform, combining departure demand information with the convective weather information, creating a live prototype. This initial phase allows a gradual introduction of functionality into an existing display and enables the gathering of operational data to appropriately evolve IDRP to phase 2. The second phase involves introducing airline route preferences, along with any operational improvements discovered during the initial phase.
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Summary

A concept of operations for the Integrated Departure Route Planner (IDRP) tool is proposed to address issues in the area of departure route management. By combining information about weather and departure demand, IDRP can both identify potential demand/capacity imbalances and recommend a rerouting option, if appropriate. To effectively implement IDRP...

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Concept of operations for the Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) tool

Hazard alerting based on probabilistic models

August 8, 2011
  |
Conference Paper
Author:
James P. Chryssanthacopoulos
…
Published in:
AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technologies Conf., 8-11 August 2011.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Hazard alerting systems alert operators to potential future undesirable events so that action may be taken to mitigate risk. One way to develop a hazard alerting system based on probabilistic models is by using a threshold-based approach, where the probability of the undesirable event without mitigation is compared against a threshold. Another way to develop such a system is to model the system as a Markov decision process and solve for the hazard alerting strategy that maximizes expected utility. This paper analyzes and compares these two methods. The experiments reveal that an expected utility approach performs better than threshold-based approaches when the dynamic stochasticity is high, where accounting for delays or changes in the alert becomes more important. However, for certain system parameters and operating environments, a threshold-based approach may provide comparable performance.
READ LESS

Summary

Hazard alerting systems alert operators to potential future undesirable events so that action may be taken to mitigate risk. One way to develop a hazard alerting system based on probabilistic models is by using a threshold-based approach, where the probability of the undesirable event without mitigation is compared against a...

READ MORE
Hazard alerting based on probabilistic models
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