Publications
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Modeling convective weather avoidance of arrivals in the terminal airspace
Summary
Summary
For several years the NASA sponsored Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) has been under development at Lincoln Lab to correlate pilot behavior with observable weather parameters available from convective weather systems. To date, the current CWAM has focused primarily on the enroute airspace used by aircraft at cruise altitude. At...
Observations of a 25 January 2010 gravity wave in the New York City metropolitan area and its impact on air traffic
Summary
Summary
A strong low pressure system moved through the Northeast United States on 25 January 2010. As the day progressed, a north-south line of convection formed ahead of an approaching cold front and intensified very rapidly as it passed over the four major New York City airports. Exceptionally strong winds and...
Predictive modeling of forecast uncertainty in the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT)
Summary
Summary
MIT Lincoln Laboratory has developed the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT), which provides automated convective weather guidance to air traffic managers of the NYC metro region. Prior studies of RAPT have shown high-accuracy guidance from forecast weather, but further refinements to prevent forecast misclassification is still desirable. An attribute set...
Severe weather avoidance program performance metrics for New York departure operations
Summary
Summary
When operationally significant weather affects the National Airspace System (NAS) a Severe Weather Avoidance Program (SWAP) is initiated. Each SWAP event is a unique mix of demand, weather conditions, traffic flow management (TFM) initiatives and traffic movement. Following a SWAP, the day's events are reviewed and the TFM initiatives used...
Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) -- weather integration
Summary
Summary
Time-based flow metering (TBFM) of traffic to capacity-constrained areas such as airport runways and arrival fixes is considered a key element of the Next Generation (NextGEN) Air Transportation System operational concept for managing high density air traffic. The principal operational TBFM system today is the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). TMA...
Investigating a new ground delay program strategy for coping with SFO stratus
Summary
Summary
Dozens of Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) are implemented each summer for San Francisco International Airport (SFO) in order to cope with reduced capacity caused by the presence of warm-season stratus in the approach zone. The stratus prevents the use of dual approaches to SFO's closely-spaced parallel runways, which essentially reduces...
The 2008 CoSPA forecast demonstration (Collaborative Storm Prediction for Aviation)
Summary
Summary
Air traffic congestion caused by convective weather in the US has become a serious national problem. Several studies have shown that there is a critical need for timely, reliable and high quality forecasts of precipitation and echo tops with forecast time horizons of up to 12 hours in order to...
Measuring the uncertainty of weather forecasts specific to air traffic management operations
Summary
Summary
In this paper, we develop a novel way to measure the accuracy of weather forecasts based upon the impact on air traffic flows. This method uses new techniques developed as part of the CWAM that consider the complicated interaction between pilots, air traffic controllers and weather. This technique, known as...
Modeling convective weather avoidance in enroute airspace
Summary
Summary
It is generally agreed that effective management of convective weather in congested airspace requires decision support tools that translate the weather products and forecasts into forecasts of ATC impacts and then use those ATC impact forecasts to suggest air traffic management strategies. In future trajectory-based operations, it will be necessary...
Key research issues for near term operational use of integrated convective weather-ATM decision support systems
Summary
Summary
Thunderstorm-related delays dominate the overall U.S. airspace delay statistics and continue to increase, even though a number of new weather information systems and air traffic management (ATM) decision support tools have been deployed since 1999. Operational decision makers must mitigate the network congestion that arises from rapidly varying capacity loss...