Evaluation of Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) 0-8 hour convective weather forecast using the airspace flow program blockage-based capacity forecast ("The Matrix")
November 9, 2011
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-385
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Summary
The CoSPA 0-8 hour convective weather forecast provides deterministic forecast products that can be used by strategic traffic management planners, and can be readily translated into forecasts of aviation capacity impacts for use in automated decision support tools. An operational CoSPA prototype was evaluated at several FAA Air Traffic Control facilities during the summer of 2010. As part of this evaluation, CoSPA forecasts were translated into forecasts of capacity impacts on traffic flows through two Flow Constrained Areas (FCAA05 and FCAA08) commonly used to control arrival traffic into the highly congested northeastern United States. This report describes an objective and operationally relevant evaluation of the accurancy of CoSPA-based forecasts of FCA capacity.