Publications

The Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT) was formed in 1996 as part of the reorganization of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program, to provide an effective way to conduct critical applied research in a collaborative and rational fashion. Detecting and predicting convective weather is extremely important to aviation, since approximately half of the national airspace delay in the warm season is caused by thunderstorms. Reliable 0--6 hr storm predictions are essential for aviation users to achieve safe and efficient use of the airspace, as well as for future air traffic control automation systems. Our goal on this PDT is to direct our research and development activities toward operationally useful convective weather detection and forecast products, and delivery of those products, so that users can receive benefits on an immediate and continual basis. Given that we have many more initiatives than funding, we have chosen to prioritize our activities according to near-term achievable benefits to users. Our hope is that the success of initial planned demonstrations will help the FAA identify a consistent level of long-term R&D funding, so that we can make real progress towards achieving our full set of goals. In this paper, we present our statement of the FAA Convective Weather Forecasting problem, evidence of the need for forecasts in the National Airspace System (NAS), and an illustration of the air traffic delay caused by convective weather. We then discuss our research plan and rationale, and outline our main initiatives for the upcoming year.

Accurate, short-term forecasts of where thunderstorms will develop, move and decay allow for strategic traffic management in and around the aviation terminal and enroute airspace. Pre-planning to avoid adverse weather conditions provides safe, smooth and continuous air traffic flow and savings in both fuel cost and time. Wolfson, et. al ( 1997) describe the problem of convective weather forecasting for FAA applications. In 1995, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT-LL) and National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) scientists and engineers agreed to collaborate on the development of a convective weather forecasting algorithm for use in airport terminal areas. Each laboratory brings special strengths to the project. NCAR has been developing techniques for precise, short-term (0-60 minutes) forecasts of thunderstorm initiation, movement and dissipation for the FAA over the past ten years and has developed the Auto-Nowcaster software. MIT-LL has been developing real-time algorithms for the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS), including techniques for storm tracking, gust front detection, and calculating storm growth and decay (as part of predicting microbursts) . NSSL has been working on the NEXRAD Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm, and on understanding the predictive value of the storm cell information. Thus by using the latest research results and best techniques available at each laboratory, the collaborative effort will hopefully result in a superior convective weather forecasting algorithm. Our goal in the immediate future is to develop a joint algorithm that can be demonstrated to users of terminal weather information, so that the benefits of convective weather forecast information can be realized, and the remaining needs can be assessed. As a first effort in the collaboration, the laboratories fielded their individual algorithms at the Memphis ITWS site. This paper gives an overview of our collaborative experiment in Memphis, the system each laboratory operated, some preliminary analysis of our performance on one case, and our plans for the near future.