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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 7 report

Summary

This report details the Required Time of Arrival (RTA) performance of B757 aircraft arriving at various meter fixes across a range of altitudes from 33,000' down to 3,000' above ground level (AGL). The system tested demonstrated less than ±10 second arrival error in at least 95% of flights at meter fixes down to 7,000' AGL regardless of the forecast quality provided. Below 7,000' AGL, RTA performance significantly degraded demonstrating around 80% compliance under the best forecast and operating conditions. This report also provides a comprehensive lexicon of aviation and air traffic control related "wind" terms.
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Summary

This report details the Required Time of Arrival (RTA) performance of B757 aircraft arriving at various meter fixes across a range of altitudes from 33,000' down to 3,000' above ground level (AGL). The system tested demonstrated less than ±10 second arrival error in at least 95% of flights at meter...

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Wind Information Requirements for NextGen Operations Phase 5 Report(13.64 MB)

Published in:
Project Report ATC-439, MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Summary

NextGen applications with time-based control elements, such as required time of arrival (RTA) at a meter fix under 4D trajectory-based operations (4D-TBO)/time of arrival control (TOAC) procedures or assigned spacing goal between aircraft under Interval Management (IM) procedures, are subject to the quality of the atmospheric forecast utilized by participating aircraft. The work described in this report summarizes the major activities conducted in the current phase of this program which builds upon prior work.
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Summary

NextGen applications with time-based control elements, such as required time of arrival (RTA) at a meter fix under 4D trajectory-based operations (4D-TBO)/time of arrival control (TOAC) procedures or assigned spacing goal between aircraft under Interval Management (IM) procedures, are subject to the quality of the atmospheric forecast utilized by participating...

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Wind Information Requirements for NextGen Applications - Phase 2 Final Report(7.63 MB)

Published in:
Project Report ATC-418, MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to some of the critical future air traffic concepts envisioned under the FAA’s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) initiative. In the first phase of this work, a Wind Information Analysis Framework was developed to help explore the relationship of wind information to NextGen application performance. A refined version of the framework has been developed for the Phase 2 work.
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Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to some of the critical future air traffic concepts envisioned under the FAA’s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) initiative. In the first phase of this work, a Wind Information Analysis Framework was developed to help explore the relationship of wind information to...

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Characterization of traffic and structure in the U.S. airport network

Summary

In this paper we seek to characterize traffic in the U.S. air transportation system, and to subsequently develop improved models of traffic demand. We model the air traffic within the U.S. national airspace system as dynamic weighted network. We employ techniques advanced by work in complex networks over the past several years in characterizing the structure and dynamics of the U.S. airport network. We show that the airport network is more dynamic over successive days than has been previously reported. The network has some properties that appear stationary over time, while others exhibit a high degree of variation. We characterize the network and its dynamics using structural measures such as degree distributions and clustering coefficients. We employ spectral analysis to show that dominant eigenvectors of the network are nearly stationary with time. We use this observation to suggest how low dimensional models of traffic demand in the airport network can be fashioned.
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Summary

In this paper we seek to characterize traffic in the U.S. air transportation system, and to subsequently develop improved models of traffic demand. We model the air traffic within the U.S. national airspace system as dynamic weighted network. We employ techniques advanced by work in complex networks over the past...

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Wind information requirements to support Four Dimensional Trajectory-Based Operations

Published in:
12th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conf. and 14th AIAA/ISSM, 17-19 September 2012.

Summary

Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using simplified versions of the framework's elements to demonstrate its utility. Realistic ranges of wind information accuracy limitations in terms of wind forecast and Flight Management System wind representation errors are studied. Their impacts on 4D-TBO performance in terms of Required Time of Arrival compliance and fuel burn are presented. Interpretations of the findings to determine wind information requirements are provided.
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Summary

Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using simplified versions of the...

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Establishing wind information needs for four dimensional trajectory-based operations

Published in:
1st Int. Conf. on Interdisciplinary Science for Innovative Air Traffic Management, ISIATM, 26 June 2012.

Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to the delivery of benefits from future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described in this paper and its utility for assessing wind information needs for a four-dimensional trajectory based operations application is demonstrated.
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Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to the delivery of benefits from future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described in this paper and its utility for assessing wind information needs for a four-dimensional trajectory based operations application is demonstrated.

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A tree-based ensemble method of the prediction and uncertainty quantification of aircraft landing times

Published in:
10th Conf. on Artificial and Computational Intelligence, 22 January 2012.

Summary

Accurate aircraft landing time predictions provide situational awareness for air traffic controllers, enable decision support algorithms and gate management planning. This paper presents a new approach for estimation of landing times using a tree-based ensemble method, namely Quantile Regression Forests. This method is suitable for real-time applications, provides robust and accurate predictions of landing times, and yields prediction intervals for individual flights, which provide a natural way of quantifying uncertainty. The approach was tested for arrivals at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport over a range of days with a variety of operational conditions.
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Summary

Accurate aircraft landing time predictions provide situational awareness for air traffic controllers, enable decision support algorithms and gate management planning. This paper presents a new approach for estimation of landing times using a tree-based ensemble method, namely Quantile Regression Forests. This method is suitable for real-time applications, provides robust and...

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