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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 7 report

February 12, 2020
  |
Project Report
Author:
Christopher Edwards
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-444
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

This report details the Required Time of Arrival (RTA) performance of B757 aircraft arriving at various meter fixes across a range of altitudes from 33,000' down to 3,000' above ground level (AGL). The system tested demonstrated less than ±10 second arrival error in at least 95% of flights at meter fixes down to 7,000' AGL regardless of the forecast quality provided. Below 7,000' AGL, RTA performance significantly degraded demonstrating around 80% compliance under the best forecast and operating conditions. This report also provides a comprehensive lexicon of aviation and air traffic control related "wind" terms.
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Summary

This report details the Required Time of Arrival (RTA) performance of B757 aircraft arriving at various meter fixes across a range of altitudes from 33,000' down to 3,000' above ground level (AGL). The system tested demonstrated less than ±10 second arrival error in at least 95% of flights at meter...

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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 7 report

Wind information requirements for NextGen operations, phase 5 report

August 22, 2017
  |
Project Report
Author:
Christopher Edwards
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-439
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

NextGen applications with time-based control elements, such as required time of arrival (RTA) at a meter fix under 4D trajectory-based operations (4D-TBO)/time of arrival control (TOAC) procedures or assigned spacing goal between aircraft under Interval Management (IM) procedures, are subject to the quality of the atmospheric forecast utilized by participating aircraft. The work described in this report summarizes the major activities conducted in the current phase of this program which builds upon prior work. The major objectives were: 1. Support RTCA Special Committee-206 Aeronautical Information and Meteorological Data Link Services and co-chair a sub-group responsible for developing the document "Guidance for Data Linking Forecast and Real-Time Wind Information to Aircraft." 2. Analyze the performance of publicly available forecast as compared to in-situ reported atmospheric conditions, specifically comparing Global Forecast System (GFS) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast data to recorded in-flight weather Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS) data. 3. Analyze current and future Flight Management Systems (FMSs) to conduct operations at significantly lower altitudes than previous studies. 4. Evaluate potential sources of aircraft-derived winds to better support 4D-TBO activities. 5. Provide recommendations for high-value future work.
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Summary

NextGen applications with time-based control elements, such as required time of arrival (RTA) at a meter fix under 4D trajectory-based operations (4D-TBO)/time of arrival control (TOAC) procedures or assigned spacing goal between aircraft under Interval Management (IM) procedures, are subject to the quality of the atmospheric forecast utilized by participating...

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Wind information requirements for NextGen operations, phase 5 report

Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 4 final report

March 6, 2017
  |
Project Report
Author:
Christopher Edwards
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-431
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The success of many NextGen applications with time-based control elements, such as Required Time of Arrival (RTA) at a meter fix under 4D-Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO/Time of Arrival Control (TOAC) procedures or compliance to an Assigned Spacing Goal (ASG) between aircraft under Interval Management (IM) procedures, are subject to the quality of the atmospheric forecast utilized by participating aircraft. Erroneous information derived from provided forecast data, such as the magnitude of future headwinds relative to the headwinds actually experienced during flight, or forecast data that is insufficient to fully describe the forthcoming atmospheric conditions, can significantly degrade the performance of an attempted procedure. The work described in this report summarizes the major activities conducted in Fiscal Year 2015.
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Summary

The success of many NextGen applications with time-based control elements, such as Required Time of Arrival (RTA) at a meter fix under 4D-Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO/Time of Arrival Control (TOAC) procedures or compliance to an Assigned Spacing Goal (ASG) between aircraft under Interval Management (IM) procedures, are subject to the...

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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 4 final report

Wind Information Requirements for NextGen Applications - Phase 2 Final Report(7.63 MB)

May 1, 2014
  |
Project Report
Author:
Thomas G. Reynolds
…
Published in:
Project Report ATC-418, MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to some of the critical future air traffic concepts envisioned under the FAA’s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) initiative. In the first phase of this work, a Wind Information Analysis Framework was developed to help explore the relationship of wind information to NextGen application performance. A refined version of the framework has been developed for the Phase 2 work.
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Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to some of the critical future air traffic concepts envisioned under the FAA’s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) initiative. In the first phase of this work, a Wind Information Analysis Framework was developed to help explore the relationship of wind information to...

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Wind Information Requirements for NextGen Applications - Phase 2 Final Report

Airport surface traffic management decision support - perspectives based on tower flight data manager prototype

May 20, 2013
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Project Report
Author:
Vineet Mehta
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-398
Topic:
decision support
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

This report describes accomplishments and insights gathererd during the development of decision support tools as part of the Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) program. This work was performed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory and sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The TFDM program integrated flight data, aircraft surveillance, information on weather and traffic flow constraints, and other data required to optimize airport conguration and arrival/departure management functions. The prototype has been evaluated in both human-in-the-loop simulations, and during operational tests at Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport. In parallel, the Laboratory estimated future national operational benefits for TFDM decision support functions, using analysis and performance data gathered from major airports in the US. This analysis indicated that the greatest potential operational benefits would come from decision support tools that facilitate: i) managing runway queues and sequences, ii) tactical management of flight routes and times, impacted by weather and traffic constraints, and iii) managing airport configuration changes. Evaluation of TFDM prototype decision support functions in each of these areas provided valuable insights relative to the maturity of current capabilities and research needed to close performance gaps.
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Summary

This report describes accomplishments and insights gathererd during the development of decision support tools as part of the Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) program. This work was performed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory and sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The TFDM program integrated flight data, aircraft surveillance, information on...

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Airport surface traffic management decision support - perspectives based on tower flight data manager prototype

Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 1: 4D-trajectory based operations (4D-TBO)

February 20, 2013
  |
Project Report
Author:
Thomas G. Reynolds
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-399
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework has been developed to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is described and then applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using simplified versions of the framework's elements to demonstrate its utility. Realistic ranges of wind information accuracy in terms of wind forecast and Flight Management System wind representation errors are studied. Their impacts on 4D-TBO performance in terms of Required Time of Arrival compliance and fuel burn are presented. Interpretations of the findings to give insights on wind information requirements are provided, together with an outline of the planned next phase of the study to further refine the outputs.
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Summary

Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework has been developed to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is described and then applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using...

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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 1: 4D-trajectory based operations (4D-TBO)

Characterization of traffic and structure in the U.S. airport network

October 24, 2012
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Conference Paper
Author:
Vineet Mehta
…
Published in:
CIDU 2012: Conf. on Intelligent Data Understanding, 24-26 October, 2012.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

In this paper we seek to characterize traffic in the U.S. air transportation system, and to subsequently develop improved models of traffic demand. We model the air traffic within the U.S. national airspace system as dynamic weighted network. We employ techniques advanced by work in complex networks over the past several years in characterizing the structure and dynamics of the U.S. airport network. We show that the airport network is more dynamic over successive days than has been previously reported. The network has some properties that appear stationary over time, while others exhibit a high degree of variation. We characterize the network and its dynamics using structural measures such as degree distributions and clustering coefficients. We employ spectral analysis to show that dominant eigenvectors of the network are nearly stationary with time. We use this observation to suggest how low dimensional models of traffic demand in the airport network can be fashioned.
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Summary

In this paper we seek to characterize traffic in the U.S. air transportation system, and to subsequently develop improved models of traffic demand. We model the air traffic within the U.S. national airspace system as dynamic weighted network. We employ techniques advanced by work in complex networks over the past...

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Characterization of traffic and structure in the U.S. airport network

Wind information requirements to support Four Dimensional Trajectory-Based Operations

September 17, 2012
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Conference Paper
Author:
Yan Glina
…
Published in:
12th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conf. and 14th AIAA/ISSM, 17-19 September 2012.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using simplified versions of the framework's elements to demonstrate its utility. Realistic ranges of wind information accuracy limitations in terms of wind forecast and Flight Management System wind representation errors are studied. Their impacts on 4D-TBO performance in terms of Required Time of Arrival compliance and fuel burn are presented. Interpretations of the findings to determine wind information requirements are provided.
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Summary

Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using simplified versions of the...

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Wind information requirements to support Four Dimensional Trajectory-Based Operations

Establishing wind information needs for four dimensional trajectory-based operations

June 26, 2012
  |
Conference Paper
Author:
Thomas G. Reynolds
…
Published in:
1st Int. Conf. on Interdisciplinary Science for Innovative Air Traffic Management, ISIATM, 26 June 2012.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to the delivery of benefits from future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described in this paper and its utility for assessing wind information needs for a four-dimensional trajectory based operations application is demonstrated.
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Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to the delivery of benefits from future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described in this paper and its utility for assessing wind information needs for a four-dimensional trajectory based operations application is demonstrated.

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Establishing wind information needs for four dimensional trajectory-based operations

A tree-based ensemble method of the prediction and uncertainty quantification of aircraft landing times

January 22, 2012
  |
Conference Paper
Author:
Yan Glina
…
Published in:
10th Conf. on Artificial and Computational Intelligence, 22 January 2012.
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Accurate aircraft landing time predictions provide situational awareness for air traffic controllers, enable decision support algorithms and gate management planning. This paper presents a new approach for estimation of landing times using a tree-based ensemble method, namely Quantile Regression Forests. This method is suitable for real-time applications, provides robust and accurate predictions of landing times, and yields prediction intervals for individual flights, which provide a natural way of quantifying uncertainty. The approach was tested for arrivals at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport over a range of days with a variety of operational conditions.
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Summary

Accurate aircraft landing time predictions provide situational awareness for air traffic controllers, enable decision support algorithms and gate management planning. This paper presents a new approach for estimation of landing times using a tree-based ensemble method, namely Quantile Regression Forests. This method is suitable for real-time applications, provides robust and...

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A tree-based ensemble method of the prediction and uncertainty quantification of aircraft landing times
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