Publications
An approach for estimating current and future benefits of airport surface congestion management techniques
September 17, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
12th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conf. and 14th AIAA/ISSM, 17-19 September 2012.
Summary
Airport surface congestion can be a cause of significant increases in taxi times, fuel burn and emissions at major airports. Various surface congestion management techniques are being developed to help mitigate these issues at different airports, typically by holding aircraft at the gate during times of high congestion to reduce the number of aircraft on the active movement area. This paper presents an approach to estimate the benefits in terms of reductions in active taxi time and fuel burn of applying such techniques at a subset of US airports, both under current and expected future operations. Results show that the benefits of surface congestion management translate to billions of gallons of reduced fuel burn and huge environmental impact reduction over the next twenty years.
Summary
Airport surface congestion can be a cause of significant increases in taxi times, fuel burn and emissions at major airports. Various surface congestion management techniques are being developed to help mitigate these issues at different airports, typically by holding aircraft at the gate during times of high congestion to reduce...
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Air traffic decision analysis during convective weather events in arrival airspace
September 17, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
12th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conf. and 14th AIAA/ISSM, 17-19 September 2012.
Summary
Decision making during convective weather events in the terminal area is shared among pilots and air traffic management, where uninformed decisions can result in wide-spread cascading delays with high-level impacts. Future traffic management systems capable of predicting terminal impacts will mitigate these unnecessary delays; however in order to realize this vision, it is important to understand the decision mechanisms behind convective weather avoidance. This paper utilizes an arrival adaptation of the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) to investigate the catalysts for arrival traffic management decision making. The analysis is broken down by category of terminal airspace structure in addition to the type of decision. The results show that pilot behavior in convective weather is heavily dependent on the terminal airspace structure. In addition, pilot and air traffic management decisions in convective weather can be discriminated with large-scale weather features.
Summary
Decision making during convective weather events in the terminal area is shared among pilots and air traffic management, where uninformed decisions can result in wide-spread cascading delays with high-level impacts. Future traffic management systems capable of predicting terminal impacts will mitigate these unnecessary delays; however in order to realize this...
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Evaluation of the Convective Weather Avoidance Model for arrival traffic
September 17, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
12th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conf. and 14th AIAA/ISSM, 17-19 September 2012.
Summary
The effective management of traffic flows during convective weather events in congested air space requires decision support tools that can translate weather information into anticipated air traffic operational impact. In recent years, MIT Lincoln Laboratory has been maturing the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) to correlate pilot behavior in the enroute airspace with observable weather parameters from convective weather forecast systems. This paper evaluates the adaptation of the CWAM to terminal airspace with a focus on arrival decision making. The model is trained on data from five days of terminal convective weather impacts. The performance of the model is evaluated on an independent dataset consisting of six days of convective weather over a variety of terminal areas. Model performance in different terminal areas is discussed and the sensitivity of prediction accuracy to weather forecast horizon is presented.
Summary
The effective management of traffic flows during convective weather events in congested air space requires decision support tools that can translate weather information into anticipated air traffic operational impact. In recent years, MIT Lincoln Laboratory has been maturing the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) to correlate pilot behavior in the...
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Wind information requirements to support Four Dimensional Trajectory-Based Operations
September 17, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
12th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conf. and 14th AIAA/ISSM, 17-19 September 2012.
Summary
Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using simplified versions of the framework's elements to demonstrate its utility. Realistic ranges of wind information accuracy limitations in terms of wind forecast and Flight Management System wind representation errors are studied. Their impacts on 4D-TBO performance in terms of Required Time of Arrival compliance and fuel burn are presented. Interpretations of the findings to determine wind information requirements are provided.
Summary
Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using simplified versions of the...
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Multifunction phased array radar (MPAR) spectral usage analysis
July 24, 2012
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-395
Topic:
R&D area:
Summary
This report addressed two technical risks associated with replacing current air traffic and weather surveillance radars with a single type of multifunction phased array radar (MPAR). The first risk is whether radio spectrum usage would increase with the MPAR network and whether the allocated band will have enough spectral space. This question is addressed in two steps. First, single-radar spectrum usage is estimated based on certain assumptions regarding the radar design. Second, locations based on a previous radar placement study are used together with a terrain-dependent propagation model to compute the number of frequency channels needed at each site. We conclude that the overall spectrum usage is likely to increase with MPAR, but that the targeted window in S band will be able to accommodate the occupancy at all sites. The second risk is whether self-interference will limit the ability of the MPAR to operate asynchronously and adaptively on different antenna faces. This question is addressed by employing a simple bistatic ground clutter model to characterize the interference between adjacent faces. We conclude that some interference is unavoidable, but it would likely only occur during times when a transmit beam is at its maximum off-broadside angle (~2% of the time).
Summary
This report addressed two technical risks associated with replacing current air traffic and weather surveillance radars with a single type of multifunction phased array radar (MPAR). The first risk is whether radio spectrum usage would increase with the MPAR network and whether the allocated band will have enough spectral space...
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A preliminary investigation of Tower Flight Data Manager safety benefits
July 21, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics Conf., 21 July 2012.
Summary
Improvements to current air traffic management technologies and techniques are required to move toward the next generation air transportation system (NextGen). The Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) is a prototype air traffic control system consisting of the: (1) Flight Data Manager (FDM) facilitating interaction with electronic flight data, (2) Tower Information Display System (TIDS) providing enhanced surveillance information, and (3) Supervisor Display providing a means for front line managers and traffic management coordinators to interact with strategic and tactical planning and decision support tools. Given that TFDM aims to enable safe and efficient operations under NextGen, it is critical to analyze potential safety impacts and determine what types of real-world safety issues can be prevented or mitigated by TFDM. With this goal in mind, we reviewed 560 National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) reports focusing on commercial air carrier operations over a five year period. Over 100 reports were deemed relevant to TFDM and further analyzed to determine the likelihood that these safety-related events could have been mitigated or prevented by the key TFDM capabilities outlined above. A systematic method for generating probabilistic estimates of benefits for a technology not yet deployed was utilized to produce effectiveness ratings for the various TFDM components.
Summary
Improvements to current air traffic management technologies and techniques are required to move toward the next generation air transportation system (NextGen). The Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) is a prototype air traffic control system consisting of the: (1) Flight Data Manager (FDM) facilitating interaction with electronic flight data, (2) Tower...
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Data-driven evaluation of a flight re-route air traffic management decision-support tool
July 21, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics Conf., 21 July 2012.
Summary
Air traffic delays in the U.S. are problematic and often attributable to convective (thunderstorms) weather. Air traffic management is complex, dynamic, and influenced by many factors such as projected high volume of departures and uncertain forecast convective weather at airports and in the airspace. To support the complexities of making a re-route decision, which is one solution to mitigate airspace congestion, a display integrating convective weather information with departure demand predictions was prototyped jointly by MIT Lincoln Laboratory and the MITRE Corporation. The tool was deployed to twelve air traffic facilities involved in handling New York area flights for operational evaluation during the summer of 2011. Field observations, data mining and analyses were conducted under both fair and convective weather conditions. The system performance metrics chosen to evaluate the tool's effectiveness in supporting re-route decisions include predicted wheels-off error, predicted wheels-off forecast spread, and hourly departure fix demand forecast spread. The wheels-off prediction errors were near zero for half the flights across all days, but the highest 10% errors exceeded 30 minutes on convective weather days. The wheels-off forecast spread exceeded 30 minutes for 25% of forecasts on convective weather days. The hourly departure demand forecast spread was 9 flights or less for 50% of departures across all days except one. Six out of the seven days having the highest hourly departure demand forecast spreads occurred in the presence of long-lived weather impacts.
Summary
Air traffic delays in the U.S. are problematic and often attributable to convective (thunderstorms) weather. Air traffic management is complex, dynamic, and influenced by many factors such as projected high volume of departures and uncertain forecast convective weather at airports and in the airspace. To support the complexities of making...
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Establishing wind information needs for four dimensional trajectory-based operations
June 26, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
1st Int. Conf. on Interdisciplinary Science for Innovative Air Traffic Management, ISIATM, 26 June 2012.
Summary
Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to the delivery of benefits from future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described in this paper and its utility for assessing wind information needs for a four-dimensional trajectory based operations application is demonstrated.
Summary
Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to the delivery of benefits from future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework is described in this paper and its utility for assessing wind information needs for a four-dimensional trajectory based operations application is demonstrated.
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Towards the detection of aircraft icing conditions using operational dual-polarimetric radar
June 25, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
7th European Conf. on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology, ERAD, 25-29 June 2012.
Summary
In anticipation of the dual-polarimetric upgrade to the National Weather Service operational radar network (WSR-88D) research is being conducted to utilize this extensive new data source for remote aircraft icing detection. The first challenge is to accurately locate the melting layer. A new image-processing-based algorithm is proposed and demonstrated. The next challenge is to use the dual-polarimetric data above the melting level to distinguish regions containing super-cooled liquid water, which constitutes an aviation icing hazard, from regions of pure ice and snow. It has been well documented that the S-band dual-polarimetric radar signatures at individual range gates of super-cooled liquid water and ice crystals overlap significantly, complicating the identification of icing conditions using individual radar measurements. Recently several investigators have found that the aggregate characteristics of dual-polarimetric radar measurements over regions on the order of several kilometers show distinguishing features between regions containing super-cooled liquid and those with ice only. In this study, the features found in the literature are evaluated, extended and combined using a fuzzy-logic framework to provide an icing threat likelihood. The results of this new algorithm are computed using data collected in Colorado from the Colorado State University CHILL radar and the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-Pol radar (collectively called FRONT – The Front Range Observational Testbed) collected in the winter of 2010/2011 in coordination with the NASA Icing Remote Sensing System (NIRSS) and compared to pilot reports on approach or departure from nearby airports. The preliminary results look encouraging and will be presented. The ultimate goal is to produce an end-to-end algorithm to produce a reliable icing threat product that can then be combined with existing icing detection systems to improve their performance.
Summary
In anticipation of the dual-polarimetric upgrade to the National Weather Service operational radar network (WSR-88D) research is being conducted to utilize this extensive new data source for remote aircraft icing detection. The first challenge is to accurately locate the melting layer. A new image-processing-based algorithm is proposed and demonstrated. The...
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NextGen surveillance and weather radar capability (NSWRC) siting analysis
May 22, 2012
Project Report
Published in:
Project Report ATC-391, MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Summary
As the current radars that perform weather and aircraft surveillance over the United States age, they must be sustained through service life extension programs or replaced. In the latter case, the radars can be replaced by multiple types of radars with different missions or they can be replaced by scalable multifunction phased array radars (MPARs). State-of-the-art active phased array systems have the potential to provide improved capabilities such as earlier detection and better characterization of hazardous weather phenomena, 3D tracking of noncooperative aircraft, better avoidance of unwanted clutter sources such as wind farms, and more graceful performance degradation with component failure. As the U.S. aviation community works toward realizing the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), achieving improved capabilities for aircraft and weather surveillance becomes critical, because stricter observation requirements are believed to be needed. Hence, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is considering the MPAR as a possible solution to their NextGen Surveillance and Weather Radar Capability (NSWRC). Cost is one hurdle to the deployment of a modern phased array radar network. One way of lowering the overall cost is to reduce the total number of radars. Because of the overlap in coverage provided by the current radar networks, a unified MPAR replacement network can potentially decrease the total number of radars needed to cover the same airspace. An earlier analysis conducted by MIT Lincoln Laboratory concluded that 510 legacy radars could be effectively replaced by 334 MPARs over the contiguous United States (CONUS). There was, however, some uncertainty whether the spatial resolution used in the terrain blockage calculations was fine enough to accurately depict radar coverage, and also if terminal area coverage was being adequately addressed. This study revisits the siting analysis using a much finer spatial resolution, expands the coverage domain to include all fifty states and U.S. territories, adds the Air Force long-range surveillance radars (FPSs) to the legacy pool, and allows scaling by number of faces per radar. The aim is to provide an estimate of the minimum number of MPARs needed to replace the existing radar coverage. We also provide an extensive statistical compilation of legacy versus MPAR coverage for various observational performance parameters.
Summary
As the current radars that perform weather and aircraft surveillance over the United States age, they must be sustained through service life extension programs or replaced. In the latter case, the radars can be replaced by multiple types of radars with different missions or they can be replaced by scalable...
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