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Modeling probability of alert of Bluetooth low energy-based automatic exposure notifications

Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ACTA-4

Summary

BLEMUR, or Bluetooth Low Energy Model of User Risk, is a model of the probability of alert at a given duration and distance of an index case for a specific configuration of settings for an Exposure Notification (EN) system.The Google-Apple EN framework operates in the duration and Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) signal attenuation domains. However, many public health definitions of "exposure" to a disease are based upon the distance between an index case and another person. To bridge the conceptual gap for public health authorities (PHAs) from the familiar distance-and-duration space to the signal attenuation-and-duration space, BLEMUR uses BLE signal attenuation as a proxy for distance between people, albeit an imprecise one. This paper will discuss the EN settings that can be manipulated, the BLE data collected, how data support a model of the relationship between measured attenuation and distance between phones, and how BLEMUR calculates the probability of alert for a distance and duration based on the settings and data.
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Summary

BLEMUR, or Bluetooth Low Energy Model of User Risk, is a model of the probability of alert at a given duration and distance of an index case for a specific configuration of settings for an Exposure Notification (EN) system.The Google-Apple EN framework operates in the duration and Bluetooth Low Energy...

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COVID-19 exposure notification in simulated real-world environments

Summary

Privacy-preserving contact tracing mobile applications, such as those that use the Google-Apple Exposure Notification (GAEN) service, have the potential to limit the spread of COVID-19 in communities, but the privacy-preserving aspects of the protocol make it difficult to assess the performance of the apps in real-world populations. To address this gap, we exercised the CovidWatch app on both Android and iOS phones in a variety of scripted realworld scenarios, relevant to the lives of university students and employees. We collected exposure data from the app and from the lower-level Android service, and compared it to the phones' actual distances and durations of exposure, to assess the sensitivity and specificity of the GAEN service configuration as of February 2021. Based on the app's reported ExposureWindows and alerting thresholds for Low and High alerts, our assessment is that the chosen configuration is highly sensitive under a range of realistic scenarios and conditions. With this configuration, the app is likely to capture many long-duration encounters, even at distances greater than six feet, which may be desirable under conditions with increased risk of airborne transmission.
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Summary

Privacy-preserving contact tracing mobile applications, such as those that use the Google-Apple Exposure Notification (GAEN) service, have the potential to limit the spread of COVID-19 in communities, but the privacy-preserving aspects of the protocol make it difficult to assess the performance of the apps in real-world populations. To address this...

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The Simulation of Automated Exposure Notification (SimAEN) Model

Summary

Automated Exposure Notication (AEN) was implemented in 2020 to supplement traditional contact tracing for COVID-19 by estimating "too close for too long" proximities of people using the service. AEN uses Bluetooth messages to privately label and recall proximity events, so that persons who were likely exposed to SARS-CoV-2 can take the appropriate steps recommended by their health care authority. This paper describes an agent-based model that estimates the effects of AEN deployment on COVID-19 caseloads and public health workloads in the context of other critical public health measures available during the COVID-19 pandemic. We selected simulation variables pertinent to AEN deployment options, varied them in accord with the system dynamics available in 2020-2021, and calculated the outcomes of key metrics across repeated runs of the stochastic multi-week simulation. SimAEN's parameters were set to ranges of observed values in consultation with public health professionals and the rapidly accumulating literature on COVID-19 transmission; the model was validated against available population-level disease metrics. Estimates from SimAEN can help public health officials determine what AEN deployment decisions (e.g., configuration, workflow integration, and targeted adoption levels) can be most effective in their jurisdiction, in combination with other COVID-19 interventions (e.g., mask use, vaccination, quarantine and isolation periods).
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Summary

Automated Exposure Notication (AEN) was implemented in 2020 to supplement traditional contact tracing for COVID-19 by estimating "too close for too long" proximities of people using the service. AEN uses Bluetooth messages to privately label and recall proximity events, so that persons who were likely exposed to SARS-CoV-2 can take...

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Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) Data Collection for COVID-19 Exposure Notification

Summary

Privacy-preserving contact tracing mobile applications, such as those that use the Google-Apple Exposure Notification (GAEN) service, have the potential to limit the spread of COVID-19 in communities; however, the privacy-preserving aspects of the protocol make it difficult to assess the performance of the Bluetooth proximity detector in real-world populations. The GAEN service configuration of weights and thresholds enables hundreds of thousands of potential configurations, and it is not well known how the detector performance of candidate GAEN configurations maps to the actual "too close for too long" standard used by public health contact tracing staff. To address this gap, we exercised a GAEN app on Android phones at a range of distances, orientations, and placement configurations (e.g., shirt pocket, bag, in hand), using RF-analogous robotic substitutes for human participants. We recorded exposure data from the app and from the lower-level Android service, along with the phones' actual distances and durations of exposure.
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Summary

Privacy-preserving contact tracing mobile applications, such as those that use the Google-Apple Exposure Notification (GAEN) service, have the potential to limit the spread of COVID-19 in communities; however, the privacy-preserving aspects of the protocol make it difficult to assess the performance of the Bluetooth proximity detector in real-world populations. The...

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Radar-optimized wind turbine siting

Author:
Published in:
IEEE Trans. Sustain. Energy, Vol. 13, No. 1, January 2022, pp. 403-13.

Summary

A method for analyzing wind turbine-radar interference is presented. A model is used to derive layouts for siting wind turbines that reduces their impact on radar systems, potentially allowing for increased wind turbine development near radar sites. By choosing a specific wind turbine grid stagger based on a wind farm's orientation relative to a radar site, the impacts on that radar can be minimized. The proposed changes to wind farm siting are relatively minor and do not have a significant effect on wind turbine density. With proper optimization of radar clutter mitigation, radar tracking performance above such wind farms can be significantly increased. Both present-day and potential future or upgraded radar systems are analyzed. The reduction in radar performance due to wind turbine clutter is approximately halved using this method. The developed method is robust with respect to controlled variations in wind turbine placement caused by potential obstructions.
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Summary

A method for analyzing wind turbine-radar interference is presented. A model is used to derive layouts for siting wind turbines that reduces their impact on radar systems, potentially allowing for increased wind turbine development near radar sites. By choosing a specific wind turbine grid stagger based on a wind farm's...

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Utility of inter-subject transfer learning for wearable-sensor-based joint torque prediction models

Published in:
43rd Annual Intl. Conf. of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine & Biology, 31 October 2021-4 November 2021.

Summary

Generalizability between individuals and groups is often a significant hurdle in model development for human subjects research. In the domain of wearable-sensor-controlled exoskeleton devices, the ability to generalize models across subjects or fine-tune more general models to individual subjects is key to enabling widespread adoption of these technologies. Transfer learning techniques applied to machine learning models afford the ability to apply and investigate the viability and utility such knowledge-transfer scenarios. This paper investigates the utility of single- and multi-subject based parameter transfer on LSTM models trained for "sensor-to-joint torque" prediction tasks, with regards to task performance and computational resources required for network training. We find that parameter transfer between both single- and multi-subject models provide useful knowledge transfer, with varying results across specific "source" and "target" subject pairings. This could be leveraged to lower model training time or computational cost in compute-constrained environments or, with further study to understand causal factors of the observed variance in performance across source and target pairings, to minimize data collection and model retraining requirements to select and personalize a generic model for personalized wearable-sensor-based joint torque prediction technologies.
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Summary

Generalizability between individuals and groups is often a significant hurdle in model development for human subjects research. In the domain of wearable-sensor-controlled exoskeleton devices, the ability to generalize models across subjects or fine-tune more general models to individual subjects is key to enabling widespread adoption of these technologies. Transfer learning...

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Detecting pathogen exposure during the non-symptomatic incubation period using physiological data: proof of concept in non-human primates

Summary

Background and Objectives: Early warning of bacterial and viral infection, prior to the development of overt clinical symptoms, allows not only for improved patient care and outcomes but also enables faster implementation of public health measures (patient isolation and contact tracing). Our primary objectives in this effort are 3-fold. First, we seek to determine the upper limits of early warning detection through physiological measurements. Second, we investigate whether the detected physiological response is specific to the pathogen. Third, we explore the feasibility of extending early warning detection with wearable devices. Research Methods: For the first objective, we developed a supervised random forest algorithm to detect pathogen exposure in the asymptomatic period prior to overt symptoms (fever). We used high-resolution physiological telemetry data (aortic blood pressure, intrathoracic pressure, electrocardiograms, and core temperature) from non-human primate animal models exposed to two viral pathogens: Ebola and Marburg (N = 20). Second, to determine reusability across different pathogens, we evaluated our algorithm against three independent physiological datasets from non-human primate models (N = 13) exposed to three different pathogens: Lassa and Nipah viruses and Y. pestis. For the third objective, we evaluated performance degradation when the algorithm was restricted to features derived from electrocardiogram (ECG) waveforms to emulate data from a non-invasive wearable device. Results: First, our cross-validated random forest classifier provides a mean early warning of 51 ± 12 h, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.93 ± 0.01. Second, our algorithm achieved comparable performance when applied to datasets from different pathogen exposures – a mean early warning of 51 ± 14 h and AUC of 0.95 ± 0.01. Last, with a degraded feature set derived solely from ECG, we observed minimal degradation – a mean early warning of 46 ± 14 h and AUC of 0.91 ± 0.001. Conclusion: Under controlled experimental conditions, physiological measurements can provide over 2 days of early warning with high AUC. Deviations in physiological signals following exposure to a pathogen are due to the underlying host’s immunological response and are not specific to the pathogen. Pre-symptomatic detection is strong even when features are limited to ECG-derivatives, suggesting that this approach may translate to non-invasive wearable devices.
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Summary

Background and Objectives: Early warning of bacterial and viral infection, prior to the development of overt clinical symptoms, allows not only for improved patient care and outcomes but also enables faster implementation of public health measures (patient isolation and contact tracing). Our primary objectives in this effort are 3-fold. First...

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A neural network estimation of ankle torques from electromyography and accelerometry

Summary

Estimations of human joint torques can provide clinically valuable information to inform patient care, plan therapy, and assess the design of wearable robotic devices. Predicting joint torques into the future can also be useful for anticipatory robot control design. In this work, we present a method of mapping joint torque estimates and sequences of torque predictions from motion capture and ground reaction forces to wearable sensor data using several modern types of neural networks. We use dense feedforward, convolutional, neural ordinary differential equation, and long short-term memory neural networks to learn the mapping for ankle plantarflexion and dorsiflexion torque during standing,walking, running, and sprinting, and consider both single-point torque estimation, as well as the prediction of a sequence of future torques. Our results show that long short-term memory neural networks, which consider incoming data sequentially, outperform dense feedforward, neural ordinary differential equation networks, and convolutional neural networks. Predictions of future ankle torques up to 0.4 s ahead also showed strong positive correlations with the actual torques. The proposed method relies on learning from a motion capture dataset, but once the model is built, the method uses wearable sensors that enable torque estimation without the motion capture data.
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Summary

Estimations of human joint torques can provide clinically valuable information to inform patient care, plan therapy, and assess the design of wearable robotic devices. Predicting joint torques into the future can also be useful for anticipatory robot control design. In this work, we present a method of mapping joint torque...

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Development of a field artifical intelligence triage tool: Confidence in the prediction of shock, transfusion, and definitive surgical therapy in patients with truncal gunshot wounds

Summary

BACKGROUND: In-field triage tools for trauma patients are limited by availability of information, linear risk classification, and a lack of confidence reporting. We therefore set out to develop and test a machine learning algorithm that can overcome these limitations by accurately and confidently making predictions to support in-field triage in the first hours after traumatic injury. METHODS: Using an American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program-derived database of truncal and junctional gunshot wound (GSW) patients (aged 1~0 years), we trained an information-aware Dirichlet deep neural network (field artificial intelligence triage). Using supervised training, field artificial intelligence triage was trained to predict shock and the need for major hemorrhage control procedures or early massive transfusion (MT) using GSW anatomical locations, vital signs, and patient information available in the field. In parallel, a confidence model was developed to predict the true-dass probability ( scale of 0-1 ), indicating the likelihood that the prediction made was correct, based on the values and interconnectivity of input variables.
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Summary

BACKGROUND: In-field triage tools for trauma patients are limited by availability of information, linear risk classification, and a lack of confidence reporting. We therefore set out to develop and test a machine learning algorithm that can overcome these limitations by accurately and confidently making predictions to support in-field triage in...

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Geographic source estimation using airborne plant environmental DNA in dust

Summary

Information obtained from the analysis of dust, particularly biological particles such as pollen, plant parts, and fungal spores, has great utility in forensic geolocation. As an alternative to manual microscopic analysis, we developed a pipeline that utilizes the environmental DNA (eDNA) from plants in dust samples to estimate previous sample location(s). The species of plant-derived eDNA within dust samples were identified using metabarcoding and their geographic distributions were then derived from occurrence records in the USGS Biodiversity in Service of Our Nation (BISON) database. The distributions for all plant species identified in a sample were used to generate a probabilistic estimate of the sample source. With settled dust collected at four U.S. sites over a 15-month period, we demonstrated positive regional geolocation (within 600 km2 of the collection point) with 47.6% (20 of 42) of the samples analyzed. Attribution accuracy and resolution was dependent on the number of plant species identified in a dust sample, which was greatly affected by the season of collection. In dust samples that yielded a minimum of 20 identified plant species, positive regional attribution improved to 66.7% (16 of 24 samples). Using dust samples collected from 31 different U.S. sites, trace plant eDNA provided relevant regional attribution information on provenance in 32.2%. This demonstrated that analysis of plant eDNA in dust can provide an accurate estimate regional provenance within the U.S., and relevant forensic information, for a substantial fraction of samples analyzed.
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Summary

Information obtained from the analysis of dust, particularly biological particles such as pollen, plant parts, and fungal spores, has great utility in forensic geolocation. As an alternative to manual microscopic analysis, we developed a pipeline that utilizes the environmental DNA (eDNA) from plants in dust samples to estimate previous sample...

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