Summary
Within the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP), the Terminal Ceiling and Visibility Product Development Team (TC&V PDT) is responsible for development of forecast guidance products to mitigate the loss of terminal operating capacity associated with low ceiling and visibility restrictions. In particular, accurate anticipation of the onset and cessation of Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC) allows the opportunity for air traffic managers to effectively regulate traffic to utilize available capacity. The TC&V PDT approach is to develop forecast guidance solutions that are specific to individual high volume terminals that experience substantial loss of capacity. Due to the inter-hub dependencies of traffic flow, efficiency gains at individual key airports translate to a general reduction of total aircraft delay through the entire National Airspace System. The first key airport targeted was San Francisco International Airport (SFO). A system was developed to provide forecast guidance of the clearing time of stratus cloud that frequently restricts approach capacity during the summer months (Clark, 2002). This prototype system was transferred to the National Weather Service in 2004 (Ivaldi et al., 2006) The current focus of the Terminal C&V PDT is on ceiling and visibility restrictions associated with synoptic-scale transient weather systems that regularly impact the Northeast U.S. during the winter months, typically from November through April. The runway configuration and instrumentation at many of the major northeast terminals (Boston, New York Laguardia and Kennedy, Newark, Philadelphia, etc.) are very susceptible to IMC weather, resulting in a dramatic reduction in operating capacity. The multitude of phenomena contributing to IMC (e.g. frontal cloud shields, advection and radiation fog, precipitation of varying intensity and type, etc.) poses a difficult forecasting challenge. The Terminal C&V PDT is pursuing a variety of candidate technologies that will be integrated to provide a comprehensive solution. Trials of these forecast technologies are being developed using the NYC airspace as an experimental domain for both weather and operations. Development is progressing on two fronts: 1) improvement in the delivery of existing C&V information, and 2) development of new forecast technologies. The ultimate objective is integration of forecasts with operational information to provide a complete decision guidance tool. This paper introduces an experimental display tool and distribution mechanism for delivering C&V data and forecasts, focused on the NYC airspace. Initially, this tool relies on routinely available weather observations and forecasts. The intent of providing such a tool early in the product development stage is to engage the operational community (forecasters, dispatchers, and traffic managers) in the assessment and selection of candidate forecast technologies that are most appropriate for supporting operational decision making. During development, these technologies will be inserted into the display framework to evaluate their effectiveness in real time trials. An overview of the technologies under consideration is provided.