Advances in the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA)
January 18, 2010
Convective storms are responsible for causing a predominant number of delays in the summer when air traffic peaks. Several studies have shown that there is a critical need for timely, reliable, and high-quality forecasts of precipitation and echo tops with forecast time horizons of up to 12 hours in order to predict airspace capacity (Robinson et al. 2008; Evans et al. 2006; FAA 2007). While a variety of convective weather forecast systems are available to strategic planners of the National Airspace System (NAS), these products don't meet Air Traffic Management (ATM) needs fully. In addition, a multitude of forecast products increases the potential of having conflicting information available in the planning process, which can cause situational awareness problems between the operational facilities, ultimately leading to more potential delays and perhaps safety problems.