Hazard alerting based on probabilistic models
March 1, 2012
J. Guidance, Control, Dynamics, Vol. 35, No. 2, March-April 2012, pp. 442-450.
Hazard alerting systems alert operators to potential future undesirable events so that action may be taken to mitigate risk. One way to develop a hazard alerting system based on probabilistic models is by using a threshold-based approach, where the probability of the undesirable event without mitigation is compared against a threshold. Another way to develop such a system is to model the system as a Markov decision process and solve for the hazard experiments reveal that an expected utility approach performs better than threshold-based approaches when the dynamic stochasticity is high, where accounting for delays or changes in the alert becomes more important. however, for certain system parameters and operating environments, a threshold-based approach may provide comparable performance.