ITWS microburst prediction algorithm performance, capabilities, and limitations
Lincoln Laboratory, under funding from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Doppler Weather Radar program, has developed algorithms for automatically detecting microbursts. While microburst detection algorithms provide highly reliable warnings of microbursts. there still remains a period of time between microburst onset and pilot reaction during which aircraft are at risk. This latency is due to the time needed for the automated algorithms to operate on the radar data, for air traffic controllers to relay any warnings and for pilots to react to the warnings. Lincoln Laboratory research and development has yielded an algorithm for accurately predicting when microburst outflows will occur. The Microburst Prediction Algorithm is part of a suite of weather detection algorithms within the Integrated Terminal Weather System. This paper details the performance of the Microburst Prediction Algorithm over a wide range of geographical and climatological environments. The paper also discusses the full range of the Microburst Prediction Algorithm's capabilities and limitations in varied weather environments. This paper does not discuss the overall rationale for a prediction algorithm or the detailed methodology used to generate predictions.