LLWAS II and LLWAS III performance evaluation
Summary
Low level wind shear has been identified as a cause or contributing factor in a significant number of aviation accidents. Research has shown that the most dangerous type of wind shear is the microburst (Fujita, et al., 1977 and 1979). Briefly, a microburst is an intense local downdraft that results in a strong divergent outflow near the surface. The diameter of the outflow region may vary from 3 to 10 Km. Although many of these accidents were nonfatal, six of them resulted in a total of 550 lives lost. During the past 17 years, the mainstay of the effort by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to provide wind shear warnings to pilots has been the Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS). The system has been redesigned, based on extensive operational experience and new knowledge about the nature of the aviation wind shear hazard (Goff and Gramzow, 1989). In parallel development, the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) has provided a capable alternative for ground-based microburst detection (Turnbull, et al., 1989). Recent studies on the integration of LLWAS with TDWR have established the value of a combined TDWR/LLWAS wind shear detection system (Cole and Todd, 1993) The LLWAS system is being developed in four phases, I, II, III, and IV, which reflect the chronology of operational deployments. The original LLWAS, now called LLWAS I, was designed for the detection of frontal shears under the assumption that hazardous wind shear is associated with large-scale meteorological features (Goff and Gramzow, 1989). This system was deployed at 110 airports between 1977 and 1987. LLWAS I had no microburst detection capability and had excessive false alerts. LLWAS II was developed to reduce the false alert rate of LLWAS I and to provide a modest microburst detection capability. It is a direct response to recommendations by the National Research Council (NRS-NAS, 1983), following the 1982 microburst crash in New Orleans. This upgrade, deployed by modifying the software in LLWAS I, provided an improvement that would not suffer the delays and costs of the major construction that is required for off-airport LLWAS III sensors. These upgrades to LLWAS I were installed between 1988 and 1991. LLWAS II will be the operational wind shear detection system at many airports until the late '90s. LLWAS III was developed in response to the requirements that LLWAS have a microburst detection capability (NRS-NAS, 1983). This system was designed by a combination of computer simulation studies (Wilson and Flueck, 1986) and a successful field test of a prototype at Stapleton International Airport, Denver in Augist 1987 (Smythe, et al., 1989 and Wilson et al., 1991). LLWAS III combines a dense sensor network and a sophisticated Wind Shear/Microburst (WSMB) detection algoritohm to provide a substantial microburst detection capability. The prototype LLWAS III has continued to operate at Stapleton International Airport, Denver since 1987 and has been credited with the "save" of a commercial airliner on July 8, 1989. Nine LLWAS IIIs are being installed this year. LLWAS IV will be deployed at 83 airports in the late '90s. The LLWAS IV wind shear and microburst detection algorithms will be identical to LLWAS III. This system features a full hardware upgrade. Major imporvements include an ice-free sensor and hardware that is more reliable and maintainable. This report provides an evaluation of the effectiveness of LLWAS II and LLWAS III. The TDWR operational test bed at Orlando International Airport, Orlando (MCO) provides a unique data set for this evaluation. This test-bed features data from a 14-sensor LLWAS, the prototype TDWR, FL-2C, operated by MIT/LL, and the University of North Dakota meteorolgical radar (UND). Data from this test bed in the summers of 1991 and 1992 are used to provide an evaluation of LLWAS II and LLWAS III. Since LLWAS IV uses the same wind shear detection algorithm, it is expected that LLWAS III and LLWAS IV will have comparable wind shear detection capabilities.