Publications
Wind prediction to support reduced wake separation standards for closely spaced parallel runway departures
October 4, 2004
Conference Paper
Published in:
11th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, 4-8 October 2004.
Summary
Wake vortices are a by-product of lift generated by aircraft. The vortices from the wings and other lift surfaces such as flaps spin off and trail behind an aircraft (see Figure 1). These vortices can be a hazard to other aircraft, especially lighter aircraft that are following at low altitude. For this reason, numerous air traffic control standards require increased aircraft separation when wake vortex avoidance is a concern. These separation standards provide the required safety: there has never been a fatal accident in the U.S. due to wake vortices when wake vortex separations were provided by air traffic controllers. Wake vortex behavior is strongly dependent on atmospheric conditions, giving rise to the possibility that wake behavior can be predicted with enough precision to allow reduced use of wake vortex avoidance separations. Because vortices can not be seen, and their location and strength are not currently known or predicted, separation standards and air traffic procedures are designed to account for the worst case wake behavior. Because of this, the imposed aircraft separations are larger than required much of the time, reducing terminal capacity and causing increased traffic delay. If procedures or technologies can be developed to reduce the use of wake avoidance separations, terminal area delay reduction may be achieved. A prototype wind dependent wake separation system is operating in Frankfurt, Germany for arrivals into closely spaced parallel runways. The system uses wind prediction at the surface to determine when separation for wake vortex avoidance must be used and when the extra separation does not need to be used [Konopka, 2001][Frech, et al., 2002]. This led the FAA to ask the question: does the wind prediction algorithm used in Frankfurt, or perhaps another algorithm, have sufficient performance to consider it for possible use in the US for a closely spaced parallel runway departure system? This paper reports on a research effort to answer that question. This is part of a larger FAA and NASA research effort [Lang et al., 2003].
Summary
Wake vortices are a by-product of lift generated by aircraft. The vortices from the wings and other lift surfaces such as flaps spin off and trail behind an aircraft (see Figure 1). These vortices can be a hazard to other aircraft, especially lighter aircraft that are following at low altitude...
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Potential benefits of reducing wake-related aircraft spacing at the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport
July 12, 2002
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-304
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Summary
Measurements and modeling of wake vortices reveal that the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) minimum separation requirements for departing aircraft are often overly conservative. If the separation times following heavy aircraft can be safely reduced, considerable savings will be realized. The Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) experiences departure delays daily. Banks of departing aircraft often create a significant queue at the end of the runway, with aircraft waiting between 10-20 minutes to depart. Additional delays occur during weather recovery operations after the terminal airspace has been impacted by thunderstorms. This report produces projected delay and cost benefits of implementing reduced wake spacing for departing aircraft at DFW. The benefits are calculated by simulating aircraft departures during both clear weather and weather recovery operations, using current and possible reduced spacings. The difference in delay values using different separation standards is used to calculate a cost savings to the airlines. The benefits for a single day are extended to a yearly approximation based on the estimated number of days that the separation criteria could be safely reduced. Departure information from February 19, 2001 is analyzed for clear weather operations. The simulation reveals a savings of $4.7 million/yr when the separation criteria is reduced from the current practice of 110 seconds to 90 seconds. A further reduction in the separation criteria to 60 seconds pushes the maximum savings to almost $10 million/yr. The daily savings for a weather recovery operation is $19,600 for weather impacts between 15-60 minutes and a reduction in spacing fiom the current 110 seconds to 90 seconds. The average increases to $36,200 when the spacing is reduced to 60 seconds. Significant thunderstorm events impacted the DFW terminal airspace 59 times during 2001 leading to projected yearly savings of greater than $2.1 million for a 60 second separation criteria following heavies.
Summary
Measurements and modeling of wake vortices reveal that the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) minimum separation requirements for departing aircraft are often overly conservative. If the separation times following heavy aircraft can be safely reduced, considerable savings will be realized. The Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) experiences departure delays daily. Banks...
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A comparison of boundary layer wind estimation techniques
May 13, 2002
Conference Paper
Published in:
10th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 13-16 May 2002, pp. 331-33334.
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Summary
Accurate, short-term (0-2 hour) forecasts of convective initiation provide critical information about weather that has a major impact on aviation safety and system capacity. The Terminal Convective Weather Forecast (TCWF) algorithm is a key component of the FAA's operational Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). Convective forecasts rely, in part, upon detection of convergence zones in the boundary layer. Detection of convergence requires accurate, high-resolution wind estimates, which may be based on measurements from many sources, including Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), Automatic Weather Observation System/Automatic Surface Observation System (AWOS/ASOS), aircraft (via the Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System, MDCRS) and Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS). These data may be directly analyzed, combined with satellite and sounding data or ingested into physical models that estimate winds and produce short term forecasts. We compare two windfield estimation techniques: Terminal Winds (TWINDS) [Cole et. al., 2000], an optimal estimation algorithm developed at Lincoln Laboratory that is deployed operationally in ITWS, and Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) [Sun and Crook, 2001], a 4DVAR algorithm developed and fielded by the Research Applications Program (RAP) at NCAR. These techniques differ markedly in their use of physical models: TWINDS applies no physical constraints to its analysis, while VDRAS uses a 4DVAR technique to fit the data with a boundary layer model as a strong constraint. The techniques also differ in their computational requirements: TWINDS requires substantially less computational power than VDRAS. We were able to run TWINDS at higher horizontal resolution and update rate (1km grid spacing, 5 minute update) than VDRAS (2km and 12 minutes).
Summary
Accurate, short-term (0-2 hour) forecasts of convective initiation provide critical information about weather that has a major impact on aviation safety and system capacity. The Terminal Convective Weather Forecast (TCWF) algorithm is a key component of the FAA's operational Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). Convective forecasts rely, in part, upon...
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A study of time-to-fly estimates for RUC and ITWS winds
September 11, 2000
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. Ninth Conf. on Aviation Range and Aerospace Meteorology, 11-15 September 2000, pp. 113-117.
Summary
Automated air traffic decision support tools must compute the time it takes an aircraft to fly along a path. The estimation of Time-To-Fly (TTF) requires accurate knowledge of the wind. Two proposed sources of wind data for the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) developed by NASA are the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). The RUC is a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The ITWS was developed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory for the FAA. The ITWS winds product, Terminal Winds takes in RUC forecasts and refines them using recent local measurements of the wind from Doppler radars, aircraft, and ground stations. This report examines the question: does the use of RUC and ITWS wind fields lead to different Time-To-Fly estimates?
Summary
Automated air traffic decision support tools must compute the time it takes an aircraft to fly along a path. The estimation of Time-To-Fly (TTF) requires accurate knowledge of the wind. Two proposed sources of wind data for the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) developed by NASA are the Rapid Update Cycle...
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Distribution of aviation weather hazard information: low altitude wind shear
September 11, 2000
Conference Paper
Published in:
Ninth Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 11-15 September 2000, pp. 499-504.
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Summary
Weather Hazard Information distribution is a necessary component for a successful system of weather hazard avoidance for aviation. It is a very important component, but not the only one. In order to be successful, a complete set of components must be included in the system: 1) Accurate Conceptual Model (Appropriate models of the physical process responsible for generating the hazard); 2) Production Infrastructure (System of tools [hardware, software and manpower]; the raw data feeds necessary for production of the hazard information and a standardized message format); 3) Quality Control Infrastructure (System of tools [hardware, software and manpower] & data feeds necessary for identifying and correcting erroneous information immediately); 4) Distribution Infrastructure (A method to relay, in a timely manner, only the information pertinent to the specific user); 5) Policies and Procedures (There must be clearly defined expectations of actions required of the users and recipients of the hazard information); 5) Training (The users and recipients as well as individuals responsible for production and quality control of the information must receive initial and recurrent training regarding actions required). ICAO in their Annex 3, Chapter 7 titled, SIGMET Information, Aerodrome Warnings and Wind Shear Warnings [ICAO 19981, describes in part one such system for weather hazard avoidance. ICAO does a good job defining the necessary production infrastructure. ICAO especially has been successful in defining the standardized message format. The format for SlGMETs is described in detail in Annex 3. But, an international organization Such as ICAO is limited in its scope of influence. Quality control of the SIGMET product and the distribution of the SIGMET is, in large part, beyond ICAO’s control. In addition, the actual weather hazard avoidance policies, procedures and training must be accomplished internally by each individual commercial aviation operator. Since each component listed above is directly dependent on the other five for a successful weather hazard avoidance system, Northwest Airlines (NWA) has chosen to attempt to address all six components of the system internally with use of the NWA Turbulence Plot System (TPS) [Fahey et. al. 2000].
Summary
Weather Hazard Information distribution is a necessary component for a successful system of weather hazard avoidance for aviation. It is a very important component, but not the only one. In order to be successful, a complete set of components must be included in the system: 1) Accurate Conceptual Model (Appropriate...
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Weather sensing and data fusion to improve safety and reduce delays at major west coast airports
September 11, 2000
Conference Paper
Published in:
Ninth Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 11-15 September 2000, pp. 102-107.
Summary
In this paper we present results from a recently completed study of weather sensing and data fusion to improve safety and reduce delays at major west coast airports. With the exception of a summer stratus burn-off prediction project at San Francisco, these airports have received much less attention in terms of advanced FAA terminal weather decision support systems than major airports east of Los Angeles. This is because the principal concern for terminal weather decision support to date has been microburst-induced wind shear, which is very infrequent at the west coast airports. However, three factors warrant a reexamination of weather decision support provided to these major west coast airports: 1. The increased emphasis on significantly improving aviation safety while reducing delays at major airports in the face of expected increases in operations rates within the National Airspace System (NAS), 2. New air traffic management technology such as terminal automation, collaborative decision making (CDM), and weather adaptive wake vortex spacing systems, and 3. Advances in terminal weather decision support technology represented by the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) [including various P31 enhancements to ITWS (Evans and Wolfson, 2000)] The airports considered in this study were the Los Angeles (LAX), San Francisco (SFO), Portland (PDX) and Seattle (SEA) International Airports. It should be noted that because these airports did not receive a Terminal Doppler Weather Radar, there currently is no plan to provide them with an ITWS. LAX, SF0 and PDX are scheduled to receive an ASR-9 Weather System Processor (WSP). The paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 discusses the study's methodology and provides background information on delays and weather phenomena for these airports in the context of other major US airports as well as applicable air traffic management (ATM) and terminal weather system technology. Section 3 summarizes the principal findings for the four airports. We conclude with a summary of the potential benefits of improved weather sensing and data fusion that might be provided at these west coast airports by an augmented ITWS as well as recommendations for further studies.
Summary
In this paper we present results from a recently completed study of weather sensing and data fusion to improve safety and reduce delays at major west coast airports. With the exception of a summer stratus burn-off prediction project at San Francisco, these airports have received much less attention in terms...
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Improving RUC-1 wind estimates by incorporating near-real-time aircraft reports
August 1, 2000
Journal Article
Published in:
Weather For., Vol. 15, No. 4, August 2000, pp. 447-460.
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A verification study of wind accuracy is presented for wind nowcasts generated by augmenting Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) wind forecasts with near-real-time aircraft reports using the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) gridded winds algorithm. Aircraft wind reports collected between the end of the RUC data collection interval and the time each RUC forecasts is valid are available for use in augmenting the RUC wind forecast to form a wind nowcast. The 60-km resolution, hourly RUC-1 wind forecasts are used. ITWS-based nowcast wind errors and RUC forecast wind errors are examined statistically over a 1-yr dataset. The addition of the recent aircraft reports significantly reduces the rms vector error and the 90th percentile vector error. Also reduced is the number of hours of sustained large errors and the correlation among errors. The errors increase with increasing wind speed, in part due to an underestimation of wind speed that increases with increasing wind speed. The errors in the augmented wind fields decrease with increasing numbers of Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System reports. Different types of weather are also seen to influence wind field accuracy.
Summary
A verification study of wind accuracy is presented for wind nowcasts generated by augmenting Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) wind forecasts with near-real-time aircraft reports using the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) gridded winds algorithm. Aircraft wind reports collected between the end of the RUC data collection interval and the time...
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Wind prediction accuracy for air traffic management decision support tools
June 13, 2000
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. 3rd Int. Air Traffic Management R&R Seminar, 13-16 June 2000, pp. 1-9.
Summary
Air traffic automation depends on accurate trajectory predictions. Flight tests show that wind errors are a large source of error. Wind-field accuracy is sufficient on average, but large errors occasionally exist that cause significant errors in trajectory-prediction. A year long study was conducted to better understand the wind-prediction errors, to establish metrics for quantifying large errors, and to validate two approaches to improve wind prediction accuracy. Three methods are discussed for quantifying large errors: percentage of point errors that exceed 10 m/s, probability distribution of point errors, and the number of hourly time periods with a high number of large errors. The baseline wind-prediction system evaluated for this study is the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC). Two approaches to improving the original RUC wind predictions are examined. The first approach is to enhance RUC in terms of increased model resolution, enhancement of the model physics, and increased observational input data. The second method is to augment the RUC output, in near-real time, through an optimal-interpolation scheme that incorporates the latest aircraft reports received since the last RUC update. Both approaches are shown to greatly reduce the occurrence of large wind errors.
Summary
Air traffic automation depends on accurate trajectory predictions. Flight tests show that wind errors are a large source of error. Wind-field accuracy is sufficient on average, but large errors occasionally exist that cause significant errors in trajectory-prediction. A year long study was conducted to better understand the wind-prediction errors, to...
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Weather sensing and data fusion to improve safety and reduce delays at major west coast airports
November 30, 1999
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-290
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Summary
The objective of this study was to analyze the weather sensing and data fusion required to improve safety and reduce delays at a number of west coast airports that are not currently scheduled to receive an Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). This report considers the Los Angeles (LAX), San Francisco (SFO), Seattle (SEA) and Portland, OR (PDX) international airports. A number of visits were made to the various ATC facilities to better understand their weather decision support operational needs. Analyses were made of an incident of lightning strikes to two aircraft at SEA in February 1999, and a prototype terminal winds product was developed for LAX that uses profilers as well as plane reports to update the the National Weather Service (NWS) Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) winds estimates. We found that an augmented ITWS could potentially address safety concerns for triggered lightning strikes and vertical wind shear in winter storms at Portland and Seattle. An augmented ITWS terminal winds product (that uses wind profiler data in addition to the current ITWS sensors) could provide very large delay reductions for LAX and SFO during winter storms as a component of a wake vortex advisory system. This augmented product also could provide significant delay reduction benefits at SEA. The sensors required to obtain the projected benefits at SFO do not exist currently. Portland may warrant additional sensors to address the vertical wind shear problems, and LAX would require additional sensors for a wake vortex advisory system. We recommend near-term experimental measurements at PDX to determine the optimum sensor mix and that an operational evaluation of the prototype augmented ITWS terminal winds product be carried out at LAX to determine if the current sensor mix can meet operational needs. Lightning strike data at SEA and PDX should be analyzed to determine if a proposed triggered lightning predictant is accurate.
Summary
The objective of this study was to analyze the weather sensing and data fusion required to improve safety and reduce delays at a number of west coast airports that are not currently scheduled to receive an Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). This report considers the Los Angeles (LAX), San Francisco...
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Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) initial 1997 system deployment at Dallas/Ft. Worth (DFW) Airport
July 8, 1998
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report NASA-L-3
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Summary
The potential hazard of aircraft encounters with the wake turbulence of preceding aircraft requires the use of minimum separations on landing that are a significant constraint on airport arrival capacity during instrument flight rules (IF) conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center has been researching the development of the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) which would dynamically change aircraft arrival separations based on the forecasted weather conditions and vortex behavior. An experimental AVOSS test system has been constructed at DFW airport and includes a large set of meteorological instruments, wake vortex sensors from three organizations, and an aircraft data collection system. All of this data are relayed to a central processing center at DFW for processing by automated meteorological data fusion algorithms and by NASA vortex behavior predictions software. An initial deployment and test of the DFW system was conducted during a three-week period in September/October of 1997. This document describes the overall system, the Lincoln-deployed sensors, including the Continuous-Wave Coherent lidar, and the meteorological data collection and processing system. Algorithms that were used to process the data for scientific use are described, as well as the conditions of the data collection and the data formats, for potential users of this database.
Summary
The potential hazard of aircraft encounters with the wake turbulence of preceding aircraft requires the use of minimum separations on landing that are a significant constraint on airport arrival capacity during instrument flight rules (IF) conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center has been researching the...
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