Quantifying convective delay reduction benefits for weather/ATM systems
June 27, 2005
USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Seminar, 27-30 June 2005.
This paper investigates methods for quantifying convective weather delay reduction benefits for weather/ATM systems and recommends approaches for future assessments. This topic is particularly important at this time because: 1. Convective weather delays continue to be a dominant factor in the overall National Airspace System (NAS) delays, and 2. Benefits quantification and NAS performance assessment have become very important in an era of significant government and airline budget constraints for civil aviation investments. Quantifying convective weather delay benefits for ATM systems has proven to be quite difficult since the delays arise from complicated, highly variable, poorly understood interactions between convective weather and a very complex aviation system. In this paper, we consider key aspects of convective weather disruptions of the aviation system, how the weather severity can be characterized, and discuss practical experience with benefits quantification by a variety of approaches. The paper concludes with recommendations for a methodology to be used in future convective weather delay reduction quantification studies.