Publications
Airspace encounter models for estimating collision risk
March 1, 2010
Journal Article
Published in:
J. Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, Vol. 33, No. 2, March-April 2010, pp. 487-499.
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Summary
Airspace encounter models, providing a statistical representation of geometries and aircraft behavior during a close encounter, are required to estimate the safety and robustness of collision avoidance systems. Prior encounter models, developed to certify the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, have been limited in their ability to capture important characteristics of encounters as revealed by recorded surveillance data, do not capture the current mix of aircraft types or noncooperative aircraft, and do not represent more recent airspace procedures. This paper describes a methodology for encounter model construction based on a Bayesian statistical framework connected to an extensive set of national radar data. In addition, this paper provides examples of using several such high-fidelity models to evaluate the safety of collision avoidance systems for manned and unmanned aircraft.
Summary
Airspace encounter models, providing a statistical representation of geometries and aircraft behavior during a close encounter, are required to estimate the safety and robustness of collision avoidance systems. Prior encounter models, developed to certify the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, have been limited in their ability to capture important...
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Classification of primary radar tracks using Gaussian mixture models
December 22, 2009
Journal Article
Published in:
IET Radar, Sonar Navig., Vol. 3, No. 6, December 2009.
Summary
Classification of primary surveillance radar tracks as either aircraft or non-aircraft is critical to a number of emerging applications, including airspace situational awareness and collision avoidance. Substantial research has focused on target classification of pre-processed radar surveillance data. Unfortunately, many non-aircraft tracks still pass through the clutter-reduction processing built into the aviation surveillance radars used by the Federal Aviation Administration. This paper demonstrates an approach to radar track classification that uses only post-processed position reports and does not require features that are typically only available during the pre-processing stage. Gaussian mixture models learned from recorded data are shown to perform well without the use of features that have been traditionally used for target classification, such as radar crosssection measurements.
Summary
Classification of primary surveillance radar tracks as either aircraft or non-aircraft is critical to a number of emerging applications, including airspace situational awareness and collision avoidance. Substantial research has focused on target classification of pre-processed radar surveillance data. Unfortunately, many non-aircraft tracks still pass through the clutter-reduction processing built into...
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TCAS multiple threat encounter analysis
October 22, 2009
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-359
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The recent development of high-fidelity U.S. airspace encounter models at Lincoln Laboratory has motivated a simulation study of the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) multiple threat logic. We observed from archived radar data that while rarer than single-threat encounters, multiple threat encounters occur more frequently than originally expected. The multithreat logic has not been analyzed in the past using encounter models. To generate multi-threat encounters, this report extends the statistical techniques used to develop pairwise correlated encounters. We generated and simulated a large number of multi-threat encounters using the TCAS logic implemented in Lincoln Laboratory's Collision Avoidance System Safety Assessment Tool. Near mid-air collision (NMAC) count indicates how often close encounters are resolved, unresolved, or induced by TCAS. Change in vertical miss distance shows the effect of the additional threat on the vertical separation between the first two aircraft. Risk ratio measures how the probability of an NMAC changes when an aircraft is equipped with TCAS versus being unequipped. Study results indicate that in multi-threat encounters, the TCAS logic results in a more than twofold increase in unresolved NMACs and approximately five times more induced NMACs than one-on-one encounters. TCAS provides a safety benefit in multi-threat encounters by issuing resolution advisories that result in increased vertical separation between the equipped aircraft and the first intruder.
Summary
The recent development of high-fidelity U.S. airspace encounter models at Lincoln Laboratory has motivated a simulation study of the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) multiple threat logic. We observed from archived radar data that while rarer than single-threat encounters, multiple threat encounters occur more frequently than originally expected...
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Safety analysis of upgrading to TCAS Version 7.1 using the 2008 U.S. Correlated Encounter Model
May 11, 2009
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-349
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As a result of monitoring and modeling efforts by Eurocontrol and the FAA, two change proposals have been created to change the TCAS II V9.0 logic. The first, CP-112E, addresses the safety issues referred to as SA01. SA01 events have to do with the reversal logic contained in the TCAS algorithm, e.g., when TCAS reverses the sense of an RA from climb to descend. Typically, reversals occur to resolve deteriorating conditions during and encounter. V7.0 contained reversal logic based on certain assumptions and engineering judgment, but operational experience obtained since deployment has compelled a re-evaluation in areas of that logic, specifically having to do with late reversals. The second change proposal, CP-115, rectifies observed confusion surrounding the aural annunication AVSA during an RA by replacing it with the annunciation LOLO, and changing the TCAS V7.0 display and logic to appropriately support the change. Collectively, the changes to teh TCAS logic in both CP-112E and CP115 are referred to as TCAS II V7.1. Included in this document is a safety study that consideres V7.1 as a whole, and also the first safety study that uses teh U.S. correlated encounter model developed by Lincoln Laboratory for testing TCAS. Also included is a discussion of simulation capabilites developed at Lincoln Laboratory for evaluating CP-115 and for future analysis of TCAS in high density areas. Our study indicates that mroe risk lies in remaining with the current version of TCAS over upgrading to V7.1, and that no negative impact on safety in high density airspace occurs as a result of CP-115.
Summary
As a result of monitoring and modeling efforts by Eurocontrol and the FAA, two change proposals have been created to change the TCAS II V9.0 logic. The first, CP-112E, addresses the safety issues referred to as SA01. SA01 events have to do with the reversal logic contained in the TCAS...
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Encounter models for unconventional aircraft version 1.0
April 10, 2009
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-348
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Airspace encounter models, covering close encounter situations that may occur after standard separation assurance has been lost, are a critical component in the safety assessment of aviation procedures and collision avoidance systems. Of particular relevance to Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) is the potential for encountering general aviation aircraft that are flying under Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and are not in contact with air traffic control. In response to the need to develop a model of these types of encounters, Lincoln Laboratory undertook an extensive data collection and modeling effort involving more than 96,000 unconventional aircraft tracks. The outcome of this effort was nine individual models encompassing ultralights, gliders, balloons, and airships. The models use Bayesian networks to represent relationships between dynamic variables and to construct random trajectories that are statistically similar to those observed in the data. The intruder trajectories can be used in fast-time Monte Carlo simulations to estimate collision risk. The model described in this report is one of three developed by Lincoln Laboratory. A correlated encounter model has been developed to represent situations in which it is likely that there would b e air traffic control intervention prior to a close enounter. The correlated model applies to encounters involving aircraft receiving Air Traffic Control (ATC) services and with transponders. TAn encounter with an intruder that does not have a transponder is uncorrelated in the sense that it is unlikely that there would be prior intervention by air traffic control. The uncorrelated model described in this report is based on global databases of pilot-submitted track data. This work is a follow-on to an uncorrelated conventional model developed from recorded radar tracks from aircraft using a 1200 transponder code. A byproduct of this encounter modeling effort was the extraction of feature distributions for unconventional aircraft. This provides an extensive collection of unconventional aircraft behavior in the airspace.
Summary
Airspace encounter models, covering close encounter situations that may occur after standard separation assurance has been lost, are a critical component in the safety assessment of aviation procedures and collision avoidance systems. Of particular relevance to Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) is the potential for encountering general aviation aircraft that are...
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Airspace encounter models for conventional and unconventional aircraft
March 25, 2009
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Sem. (ATM 2009), 25 March 2009.
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Collision avoidance systems play an important role in the future of aviation safety. Before new technologies on board manned or unmanned aircraft are deployed, rigorous analysis using encounter simulations is required to prove system robustness. These simulations rely on models that accurately reflect the geometries and dynamics of aircraft encounters at close range. These types of encounter models have been developed by several organizations since the early 1980s. Lincoln Laboratory's newer encounter models, however, provide a higher-fidelity representation of encounters, are based on substantially more data, leverage a theoretical framework for finding optimal model structures, and reflect recent changes in the airspace. Three categories of encounter model were developed by Lincoln Laboratory. Two of these categories are used for modeling conventional aircraft; one involving encounters with prior air traffic control intervention and one without. The third category of encounter model is for encounters with unconventional aircraft -- such as gliders, skydivers, balloons, and airships -- that typically do not carry transponders. Together, these encounter models are being used to examine the safety and effectiveness of aircraft collision avoidance systems and as a foundation for algorithms for future manned and unmanned systems.
Summary
Collision avoidance systems play an important role in the future of aviation safety. Before new technologies on board manned or unmanned aircraft are deployed, rigorous analysis using encounter simulations is required to prove system robustness. These simulations rely on models that accurately reflect the geometries and dynamics of aircraft encounters...
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A comprehensive aircraft encounter model of the National Airspace System
December 1, 2008
Journal Article
Published in:
Lincoln Laboratory Journal, Vol. 17, No. 2, December 2008, pp. 41-54.
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Summary
Collision avoidance systems play an important role in the future of aviation safety. Before new technologies on board manned or unmanned aircraft are deployed, rigorous analysis using encounter simulations is required to prove system robustness. These simulations rely on models that accurately reflect the geometries and dynamics of aircraft encounters at close range. These types of encounter models have been developed by several organizations since the early 1980s. Lincoln Laboratory's newer encounter models, however, provide a higher-fidelity representation of encounters, are based on substantially more radar data, leverage a theoretical framework for finding optimal model structures, and reflect recent changes in the airspace.
Summary
Collision avoidance systems play an important role in the future of aviation safety. Before new technologies on board manned or unmanned aircraft are deployed, rigorous analysis using encounter simulations is required to prove system robustness. These simulations rely on models that accurately reflect the geometries and dynamics of aircraft encounters...
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Uncorrelated encounter model of the National Airspace System version 1.0
November 14, 2008
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-345
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Summary
Airspace encounter models, covering close encounter situations that may occur after standard separation assurance has been lost, are a critical component in the safety assessment of aviation procedures and collision avoidance systems. Of particular relevance to Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) is the potential for encountering general aviation aircraft that are flying under Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and which may not be in contact with air traffic control. In response to the need to develop a model of these types of encounters, Lincoln Laboratory undertook an extensive radar data collection and modeling effort involving more than 120 sensors across the U.S. This report describes the structure and content of that encounter model. The model is based on the use of Bayesian networks to represent relationships between dynamic variables and to construct random aircraft trajectories that are statistically similar to those observed in the radar data. The result is a framework from which representative intruder trajectories can be generated and used in fast-time Monte Carlo simulations to provide accurate estimates of collision risk. The model described in this report is one of three developed by Lincoln Laboratory. An encounter with an intruder that does not have a transponder, or between two aircraft using a Mode A code of 1200 (VFR), is uncorrelated in the sense that it is unlikely that there would be prior intervention by air traffic control. The uncorrelated model described in this report is based on transponder-equipped aircraft using a 1200 (VFR) Mode A code observed by radars across the U.S. As determined from a comparison against primary-only tracks, in addition to representing VFR-on-VFR encounters, this model is representative of encounters between a cooperative aircraft and conventional noncooperative aircraft similar to those that use a 1200 transponder code. A second uncorrelated model is also being developed for unconventional aircraft that have different flight characteristics than 1200-code aircraft. Finally, a correlated encounter model has been developed to represent situations in which it is likely that there would be air traffic control intervention prior to a close encounter. The correlated model applies to intruders that are using a discrete (non-1200) code. Separate electronic files are available from Lincoln Laboratory that contain the statistical data required to generate and validate encounter trajectories. Details on how to interpret the data file and an example of how to randomly construct trajectories are provided in Appendices A and B, respectively. A Matlab software package is also available to generate random encounter trajectories based on the data tables. A byproduct of the encounter modeling effort was the development of National aircraft track and traffic density databases. Example plots of traffic density data are provided in this report, but the complete track and density databases are not provided in electronic form due to their size and the complexity of processing specific locations, altitudes, and times.
Summary
Airspace encounter models, covering close encounter situations that may occur after standard separation assurance has been lost, are a critical component in the safety assessment of aviation procedures and collision avoidance systems. Of particular relevance to Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) is the potential for encountering general aviation aircraft that are...
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Correlated encounter model for cooperative aircraft in the National Airspace System, version 1.0
October 24, 2008
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-344
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This document describes a new cooperative aircraft encounter model for the National Airspace System (NAS). The model is used to generate random close encounters between transponder-equipped (cooperative) aircraft in fast-time Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate collision avoidance system concepts. An extensive set of radar data from across the United States, including more than 120 sensors and collected over a period of nine months, was used to build the statistical relationships in the model to ensure that the encounters that are generated are representative of actual events in the airspace.
Summary
This document describes a new cooperative aircraft encounter model for the National Airspace System (NAS). The model is used to generate random close encounters between transponder-equipped (cooperative) aircraft in fast-time Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate collision avoidance system concepts. An extensive set of radar data from across the United States...
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A Bayesian approach to aircraft encounter modeling
August 18, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conf., 18-21 August 2008.
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Aircraft encounter models can be used in a variety of analyses, including collision avoidance system safety assessment, sensor design trade studies, and visual acquisition analysis. This paper presents an approach to airspace encounter model construction based on Markov models estimated from radar data. We use Bayesian networks to represent the distribution over initial states and dynamic Bayesian networks to represent transition probabilities. We apply Bayesian statistical techniques to identify the relationships between the variables in the model to best leverage a large volume of raw aircraft track data obtained from more than 130 radars across the United States.
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Aircraft encounter models can be used in a variety of analyses, including collision avoidance system safety assessment, sensor design trade studies, and visual acquisition analysis. This paper presents an approach to airspace encounter model construction based on Markov models estimated from radar data. We use Bayesian networks to represent the...
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