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FAA tactical weather forecasting in the United States National Airspace

September 5, 2005
  |
Conference Paper
Author:
William J. Dupree
…
Published in:
World Weather Research Program Symp. on Nowcasting and Very Short Term Forecasts, 5-9 September 2005.
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

This paper describes the Tactical 0-2 hour Convective Weather Forecast (CWF) algorithm developed by the MIT LL for the FAA. We will address the algorithm and focus on the key scientific developments. Future directions will also be discussed.
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Summary

This paper describes the Tactical 0-2 hour Convective Weather Forecast (CWF) algorithm developed by the MIT LL for the FAA. We will address the algorithm and focus on the key scientific developments. Future directions will also be discussed.

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FAA tactical weather forecasting in the United States National Airspace

An automated, operational two hour convective weather forecast for the Corridor Integrated Weather

May 13, 2002
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Conference Paper
Author:
Robert A. Boldi
…
Published in:
10th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, 13-16 May 2002, pp. 116-119.
Topic:
aviation weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) is an initiative of the Weather and Flight Service Systems Integrated Product Team, AUA400. One of the goals of the AWRP is to create accurate and accessible forecasts of hazardous weather tailored to the needs of the aviation community. Pursuant to this goal, the AWRP has sponsored the collaboration of the Research Applications Program (RAP) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Aviation and Forecast Research Divisions at the NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), the Weather Sensing Group of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) and the National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL) on a Product Development Team (PDT). This Convective Weather PDT is developing an automated system that combines real-time weather- radar data with the current "state-of-the-art" convective weather prediction algorithms to produce forecasts of convective weather for the heavily traveled air traffic routes in the Great Lakes/Northeast corridor (Chicago to New York). This Regional Convective Weather Forecast (RCWF) will be provided to traffic flow management decision-makers as part of the proof-of-concept Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS), which began operations in July 2001 with a l-hr animated Regional Convective Weather Forecast (RCWF).
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Summary

The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) is an initiative of the Weather and Flight Service Systems Integrated Product Team, AUA400. One of the goals of the AWRP is to create accurate and accessible forecasts of hazardous weather tailored to the needs of the aviation community. Pursuant to this goal...

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An automated, operational two hour convective weather forecast for the Corridor Integrated Weather

Forecasting convective weather using multi-scale detectors and weather Classification - enhancements to the MIT Lincoln Laboratory Terminal Weather Forecast

May 13, 2002
  |
Conference Paper
Author:
William J. Dupree
…
Published in:
10th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 13-16 May 2002, pp. 132-135.
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Over the past decade the United States has seen drastic increases in air traffic delays resulting in enormous economic loses. Analysis shows that more then 50% of air traffic delays are due to convective weather. In response the FAA has assembled scientific and engineering teams from MIT Lincoln Laboratory, NCAR. NSSL, FSL and several universities to develop convective weather forecast systems to aid air traffic managers in delay reduction. A user-needs study conducted by Lincoln Laboratory identified that a major source of air traffic delay was due to line thunderstorms (Forman et al., 1999). Recognizing that the line storm envelope motion was distinct from the local cell motion was the impetus for developing the Growth and Decay Storm Tracker' (Wolfson et al., 1999). The algorithm produces forecasts by extracting large-scale features from two dimensional precipitation images. These images are tracked, using either correlation techniques (Terminal Convective Weather Forecast or TCWF) or centroid techniques (National Convective Weather Forecast or NCWF). In TCWF, the track vector field is used to advect the current precipitation images formed to produce a series of forecasts into minute increments up to 60 minutes. The TCWF forecasts are highly skilled for large scale persistent line storms. However, detailed performance analysis of the algorithm has shown that in cases dominated by airmass storms, the algorithm occasionally performed poorly (Theriault et al., 2001). In this paper we describe the sources of error discovered in the TCWF algorithm during the Memphis 2000 performance evaluation, and describe recent enhancements designed to address these problems.
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Summary

Over the past decade the United States has seen drastic increases in air traffic delays resulting in enormous economic loses. Analysis shows that more then 50% of air traffic delays are due to convective weather. In response the FAA has assembled scientific and engineering teams from MIT Lincoln Laboratory, NCAR...

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Forecasting convective weather using multi-scale detectors and weather Classification - enhancements to the MIT Lincoln Laboratory Terminal Weather Forecast

Positive charge in the stratiform cloud of a mesoscale convective system

January 16, 2001
  |
Journal Article
Author:
Thomas C. Marshall
…
Published in:
J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 106, No. D1, 16 January 2001, pp. 1157-1163.
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

A balloon sounding of electric field in the trailing stratiform cloud of a bow echo mesoscale convective system reveals only two substantial in-cloud positive charge regions. These charge regions are located at altitudes of 5.1-5.6 km and 6.4-6.8 km, above the level of 0 degree C at 4.2 km. The two positive charge regions are the likely sources of six positive cloud-to-ground flashes with large peak currents (>32 kA) that occurred within 60 km of the balloon during its flight. The amount of charge transferred by three of these positive flashes that made Q bursts is calculated in the range of 97-196 C. Flashes of this sort are known to produce sprites and elves in the mesosphere. The positive charge regions in this stratiform cloud are substantially lower than the 10-km altitude commonly assumed for the positive charge in many sprite modeling studies.
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Summary

A balloon sounding of electric field in the trailing stratiform cloud of a bow echo mesoscale convective system reveals only two substantial in-cloud positive charge regions. These charge regions are located at altitudes of 5.1-5.6 km and 6.4-6.8 km, above the level of 0 degree C at 4.2 km. The...

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Positive charge in the stratiform cloud of a mesoscale convective system

Criteria for sprites and elves based on Schumann resonance observations

July 27, 1999
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Journal Article
Author:
Everest W. Huang
…
Published in:
J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 104, No. D14, 27 July 1999, pp. 16,943-16,964.
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Ground flashes with positive polarity associated with both sprites and elves excite the Earth's Schumann resonances to amplitudes several times greater than the background resonances. Theoretical predictions for dielectric breakdown in the mesosphere are tested using ELF methods to evaluate vertical charge moments of positive ground flashes. Comparisons of the measured time constants for lightning charge transfer with the electrostatic relaxation time at altitudes of nighttime sprite initiation (50-70 km) generally validate the electrostatic assumption in predictions made initially by Wilson [1925]. The measured charge moments (Q dS = 200-2000 C-km) are large in comparison with ordinary negative lightning but are generally insufficient to account for conventional air breakdown at sprite altitudes. The measured charge moments, however, are sufficient to account for electron runaway breakdown, and the long avalanche length in this mechanism also accounts for the exclusive association of sprites with ground flashes of positive polarity. The association of elves with large peak currents (50-200 kA) measured by the National Lightning Detection Network in a band pass beyond the Schumann resonance range is consistent with an electromagnetic pulse mechanism for these events.
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Summary

Ground flashes with positive polarity associated with both sprites and elves excite the Earth's Schumann resonances to amplitudes several times greater than the background resonances. Theoretical predictions for dielectric breakdown in the mesosphere are tested using ELF methods to evaluate vertical charge moments of positive ground flashes. Comparisons of the...

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Criteria for sprites and elves based on Schumann resonance observations

The behavior of total lightning activity in severe Florida thunderstorms

July 1, 1999
  |
Journal Article
Author:
Earle R. Williams
…
Published in:
Atmos. Res., Vol. 51, Nos. 3-4, July 1999, pp. 245-265.
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The development of a new observational system called LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display) has enabled a study of severe weather in central Florida. The total flash rates for storms verified to be severe are found to exceed 60 fpm, with some values reaching 500 fpm. Similar to earlier results for thunderstorm microbursts, the peak flash rate preceeds the severe weather at the ground by 5-20 min. A distinguishing feature of severe storms is the presence of lightning 'jumps' -- abrupt increases in flash rate in advance of the maximum rate for the storm. The systematic total lightning precursor to severe weather of all kinds -- wind, hail, tornadoes -- is interpreted in terms of the updraft that sows the seeds aloft for severe weather at the surface and simultaneously stimulates the ice microphysics that drives the intracloud lightning activity.
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Summary

The development of a new observational system called LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display) has enabled a study of severe weather in central Florida. The total flash rates for storms verified to be severe are found to exceed 60 fpm, with some values reaching 500 fpm. Similar to earlier...

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The behavior of total lightning activity in severe Florida thunderstorms

Comparisons of long-term Schumann resonance records in Europe and North America

June 7, 1999
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Conference Paper
Author:
G. Satori
…
Published in:
11th Int. Conf. on Atmos. Electr. 7-11 June 1999, pp. 705-708.
Topic:
electrical engineering
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Two stations at a distance comparable with the wavelength in the Schumann resonance (SR) frequency range, one in Europe (Nagycenk, Hungary) and one in North America (West Greenwich, Rhode Island) have simultaneously monitored the natural vertical electric and horizontal magnetic field components in the frequency range of 3-25 Hz. This is a unique opportunity, as Schumann resonance stations are scarce and even fewer station have records with 5-6 year durations. The main purpose of this paper is to make comparisons in the SR time series measured simultaneously at the two field sites, thereby providing access to global behavior on the seasonal and interannual time scales. The comparative measurements described here point out distinct differences in the nature of convection in South America and in Africa, and reveal new aspects about the behavior of tropical continental convection on the ENS0 time scale.
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Summary

Two stations at a distance comparable with the wavelength in the Schumann resonance (SR) frequency range, one in Europe (Nagycenk, Hungary) and one in North America (West Greenwich, Rhode Island) have simultaneously monitored the natural vertical electric and horizontal magnetic field components in the frequency range of 3-25 Hz. This...

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Comparisons of long-term Schumann resonance records in Europe and North America

Schumann Resonances and the temporal-spatial dynamics of global thunderstorm activity

June 7, 1999
  |
Conference Paper
Author:
V. Mushtak
…
Published in:
11th Int. Conf. on Atmospheric Electricity, 7-11 June 1999, pp. 698-700.
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

A two-dimensional computational ELF technique has been applied to interpret variations of peak frequencies of Schumann resosnances (SR) observed at the MIT experimental site (West Greenwich, Rhode Island). The spatial-temporal dynamics of global thunderstorm activity has been simulated on the basis of general meteorological data. It is shown that the proposed models provide a reasonable qualitative agreement between computed and observed variations for SR I to IV. Some inverse task diagrams has been constructed as an instrument for distinguishing between day-to-day thunderstorm scenarios.
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Summary

A two-dimensional computational ELF technique has been applied to interpret variations of peak frequencies of Schumann resosnances (SR) observed at the MIT experimental site (West Greenwich, Rhode Island). The spatial-temporal dynamics of global thunderstorm activity has been simulated on the basis of general meteorological data. It is shown that the...

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Schumann Resonances and the temporal-spatial dynamics of global thunderstorm activity

The relationship between the background and transient signals in Schumann resonances

June 7, 1999
  |
Conference Paper
Author:
Earle R. Williams
…
Published in:
Proc. 11th Int. Conf. on Atmospheric Electricity, 7-11 June 1999, pp. 758-761.
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Two distinct measures of the Earth's Schumann resonances -- the background and the transients -- are studied through comparisons at the mesoscale and at the continental scale. A rough proportionality is shown between the far more abundant afternoon lightning activity and the larger positive mesoscale discharges that make sprites and simultaneously ring the Earth- ionosphere cavity to levels higher than the integration of all other lightnings.
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Summary

Two distinct measures of the Earth's Schumann resonances -- the background and the transients -- are studied through comparisons at the mesoscale and at the continental scale. A rough proportionality is shown between the far more abundant afternoon lightning activity and the larger positive mesoscale discharges that make sprites and...

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The relationship between the background and transient signals in Schumann resonances

Total lightning activity associated with tornadic storms

June 7, 1999
  |
Conference Paper
Author:
Steven J. Goodman
…
Published in:
11th Int. Conf. on Atmos. Electr., 7-11 June 1999, pp. 515-518.
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Severe storms often have high flash rates (in excess of one flash per second) and are dominated by intracloud lightning activity. In addition to the extraordinary flash rates, there is a second distinguishing lightning characteristic of severe storms that seems to be important. When the total lightning history is examined, one finds sudden increases in the lightning rate, which we refer to as lightning "jumps", that precede the occurrence of severe weather by ten or more minutes. These jumps are typically 30-60 flashes/min, and are easily identified as anomalously large derivatives in the flash rate. This relationship is associated with updraft intensification and updraft strength is an important factor in storm severity (through the accumulation of condensate aloft and the stretching of vorticity). In several cases, evidence for diminishment of midlevel rotation and the descent of angular momentum from aloft is present prior to the appearance of the surface tornado. Based on our experience with severe and tornadic storms in Central Florida, we believe the total lightning may augment the more traditional use of NEXRAD radars and storm spotters. However, a more rigorous relation of these jumps to storm kinematics is needed if we are to apply total lightning in a decision tree that leads to improved warning lead times and decreased false alarm rates.
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Summary

Severe storms often have high flash rates (in excess of one flash per second) and are dominated by intracloud lightning activity. In addition to the extraordinary flash rates, there is a second distinguishing lightning characteristic of severe storms that seems to be important. When the total lightning history is examined...

READ MORE
Total lightning activity associated with tornadic storms
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