Publications
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Accounting for state uncertainty in collision avoidance
Summary
Summary
An important consideration in the development of aircraft collision avoidance systems is how to account for state uncertainty due to sensor limitations and noise. However, many collision avoidance systems simply use point estimates of the state instead of leveraging the full posterior state distribution. Recently, there has been work on...
Analytical workload model for estimating en route sector capacity in convective weather
Summary
Summary
We have extended an analytical workload model for estimating en route sector capacity to include the impact of convective weather. We use historical weather avoidance data to characterize weather blockage, which affects the sector workload in three ways: (1) Increase in the conflict resolution task rate via reduction in available...
Estimation of potential IDRP benefits during convective weather SWAP
Summary
Summary
This document presents a preliminary analysis of potential departure delay reduction benefits in New York as the result of the use of the Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) tool during convective severe weather avoidance programs (SWAP). The analysis is based on weather impact and air traffic data from operations between...
Making departure management weather impact models airspace-adaptable: adapting the New York Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) to Chicago departure airspace
Summary
Summary
The Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) operational prototype was deployed to Chicago in the summer of 2010, the first RAPT deployment outside of the New York departure airspace for which it was originally developed. The goal of the deployment was to evaluate the adaptability of RAPT's airspace definition, departure management...
Overlapped digital subarray architecture for multiple beam phased array radar
Summary
Summary
MIT Lincoln Laboratory is conducting a technology demonstration of affordable Multifunction Phased Array Radar (MPAR) technology for Next Generation air traffic control and national weather surveillance services. Aggressive cost and performance goals have been established for the system. The array architecture and its realization using custom Transmit and Receive Integrated...
Partially-controlled Markov decision processes for collision avoidance systems
Summary
Summary
Deciding when and how to avoid collision in stochastic environments requires accounting for the likelihood and relative costs of future sequences of outcomes in response to different sequences of actions. Prior work has investigated formulating the problem as a Markov decision process, discretizing the state space, and solving for the...
Use of a high-resolution deterministic weather forecast for strategic air traffic management decision support
Summary
Summary
One of the most significant air traffic challenges is managing the National Airspace System (NAS) in a manner that optimizes efficiency and mitigates avoidable delay, while maintaining safety, when convective weather is present. To do this, aviation planners seek to develop strategic air traffic management (ATM) plans and initiatives that...
Field & (data) stream: a method for functional evolution of the Air Traffic Management Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT)
Summary
Summary
A method coupling field evaluation with operations data analysis is presented as an effective means to functionally evolve a decision support system. The case study used to illustrate this method is the evaluation of the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT), a decision support tool to improve departure efficiency in convective...
On estimating mid-air collision risk
Summary
Summary
Many aviation safety studies involve estimating near mid-air collision (NMAC) rate. In the past, it has been assumed that the probability that an NMAC leads to a mid-air collision is 0.1, but there has not yet been a comprehensive study to serve as a basis for this estimate. This paper...
Assessment and interpretation of en route Weather Avoidance Fields from the Convective Weather Avoidance Model
Summary
Summary
This paper presents the results of a study to quantify the performance of Weather Avoidance Fields in predicting the operational impact of convective weather on en route airspace. The Convective Weather Avoidance Model identifies regions of convective weather that pilots are likely to avoid based upon an examination of the...