Publications
Assessment of air traffic control productivity enhancements from the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)
June 30, 2006
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-325
Summary
The Air Traffic Control (ATC) productivity benefits attributed to the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) were assessed using real-time observations of CIWS product usage during three multi-day thunderstorm events in 2005 at eight U.S. Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs). CIWS improved ATC productivity by: reducing the time required to develop, coordinate, and implement weather impact mitigation plans; increasing the number of safety and capacity-enhancing plans that were executed (e.g., more efficient, proactive rerouting and greater ability to keep routes open; [and] assisting with FAA staffing decisions. Time savings per consecutive weather day for Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) in an ARTCC typically were 20-95 minutes. The overall frequency of capacity-enhancing decisions increased by 177% relative to the CIWS benefits study conducted in 2003. The annual CIWS delay savings are in excess of 92,000 hours. Corresponding airline direct operations cost (DOC) savings exceeded $94M and passenger value of time (PVT) savings exceeded $201M. Annual jet fuel savings exceeded 11M gallons. The ability of the Cleveland ARTCC to develop and execute weather impact mitigation plans improved significantly (e.g., by 50-80%) when CIWS products were available to Area Supervisors as well as to the TMCs.
Summary
The Air Traffic Control (ATC) productivity benefits attributed to the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) were assessed using real-time observations of CIWS product usage during three multi-day thunderstorm events in 2005 at eight U.S. Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs). CIWS improved ATC productivity by: reducing the time required to...
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Assessment of air traffic control productivity enhancements from the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) - executive summary
June 27, 2006
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-325-1
Summary
In an era of significant federal government budget austerity for civil aviation operations, it has become essential to improve Air Traffic Control (ATC) productivity. This report summarizes the results of an exploratory field measurement program conducted during summer 2005 to assess ATC productivity benefits of the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS). Real-time observations of CIWS product usage during multi-day thunderstorm events were carried out at eight U.S. Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC). The real time observations data were used in conjunction with specific in-depth case study analyses to assess the CIWS productivity enhancements associated with convective weather impact mitigation plan development and implementation. Comparisons of ARTCC operations between facilities with and without access to CIWS were alos made to further identify CIWS contributions to improved ATC productivity.
Summary
In an era of significant federal government budget austerity for civil aviation operations, it has become essential to improve Air Traffic Control (ATC) productivity. This report summarizes the results of an exploratory field measurement program conducted during summer 2005 to assess ATC productivity benefits of the Corridor Integrated Weather System...
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Corridor Integrated Weather System
June 1, 2006
Journal Article
Published in:
Lincoln Laboratory Journal, Vol. 16, No. 1, June 2006, pp. 59-80.
Summary
Flight delays are now a major problem in the U.S. National Airspace System. A significant fraction of these delays are caused by reductions in en route capacity due to severe convective weather. The Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) is a fully automated weather analysis and forecasting system designed to support the development and execution of convective weather impact mitigation plans for congested en route airspace. The CIWS combines data from dozens of weather radars with satellite data, surface observations, and numerical weather models to dramatically improve the accuracy and timeliness of the storm severity information and to provide state-of-the-art, accurate, automated, high-resolution, animated three-dimensional forecasts of storms (including explicit detection of storm growth and decay). Real-time observations of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) decision making process during convective weather at Air Route Traffic Control Centers in the Midwest and Northeast have shown that the CIWS enables the FAA users to achieve more efficient tactical use of the airspace, reduce traffic manager workload, and significantly reduce delays. A real-time data-fusion architecture to assist in national deployment of CIWS is under development, and the CIWS products are being used in integrated air traffic management decision support systems.
Summary
Flight delays are now a major problem in the U.S. National Airspace System. A significant fraction of these delays are caused by reductions in en route capacity due to severe convective weather. The Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) is a fully automated weather analysis and forecasting system designed to support...
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Integrating advanced weather forecast technologies into air traffic management decision support
June 1, 2006
Journal Article
Published in:
Lincoln Laboratory Journal, Vol. 16, No. 1, June 2006, pp. 81-96.
Summary
Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users.
Summary
Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management...
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An exploratory study of modeling enroute pilot convective storm flight deviation behavior
February 2, 2006
Conference Paper
Published in:
12th Conf. on Aviation Range and Aerospace Meteorology, 2 February 2006.
Summary
The optimization of traffic flows in highly congested airspace with rapidly varying convective weather is an extremely complex problem. Aviation weather systems such as the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) provide weather products and forecasts that aid en route traffic managers in making tactical routing decisions in convective weather, but traffic managers need automated decision support systems that integrate flight information, trajectory models and convective weather products to assist in developing and executing convective weather mitigation plans. A key element of an integrated ATM/wx decision support system is the ability to predict automatically when pilots in en route airspace will choose to deviate around convective weather and how far they will deviate from their planned path. The FAA Aeronautical Information Manual suggests that pilots avoid thunderstorms characterized by intense radar echo in en route airspace by at least 20 nautical miles (40 km). However, a recent study (Rhoda, et. al., 2002) of pilot behavior in both terminal and en route airspace near Memphis, TN suggested that pilots fly over high reflectivity cells in en route airspace and penetrate lower cells whose reflectivity is less than VIP level 3. Recent operational experience with CIWS supports the Rhoda findings (Robinson, et. al., 2004). This study presents initial results of research to develop a quantitative model that would predict when a pilot will deviate around convective weather in en route airspace. It also presents statistics that characterize hazard avoidance distances and weather penetrations. The results are based on the analysis of more than 800 flight trajectories through two Air Traffic Control (ATC) en route super-sectors (geographical regions that include several adjacent ATC en route sectors) on five days in the summer of 2003. One supersector from the Indianapolis Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZID ARTCC) encompassed southern Indiana, southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky (ZID); the other, located in the Cleveland ARTCC (ZOB), included northern Ohio, along the southern shore of Lake Erie (ZOB). The weather encountered along the flight trajectories was characterized by the CIWS high-resolution precipitation (VIL) and radar echo tops mosaic (Klingle-Wilson and Evans, 2005) and NLDN lightning products. Flight trajectories were taken from the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS).
Summary
The optimization of traffic flows in highly congested airspace with rapidly varying convective weather is an extremely complex problem. Aviation weather systems such as the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) provide weather products and forecasts that aid en route traffic managers in making tactical routing decisions in convective weather, but...
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A "demand pull" approach to short term forecast development and testing
January 30, 2006
Conference Paper
Published in:
86th AMS Annual Mtg., 1st Symp. on Policy Research, January 2006.
Summary
We discuss two specific short term aviation weather forecasts - convection and ceiling - to illustrate the issues that arise in thinking about the overall decision support system, key users, and training needed to generate benefits. We also consider reducing weather-related fatal accidents. Second, what is the preexisting "baseline" of aviation forecasts/decision processes that already exists to address the user needs? In most cases, there are already various weather information sources that can be viewed as providing a short term forecast (e.g., a Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) meteorologist, persistence, or animation loops of the past weather). How well do we understand how the "baseline" forecast and the associated user decision support system operate? How will the new forecast and its decision support compare? What are the training implications if the new forecast is rather different than the "baseline"? Third, how will we measure the change in system performance? For example, if the new forecast claims to help reduce delays and/or accidents, how will one address differences in the weather between the "before" and "after" time periods? How will one determine whether the new forecast is in fact the key factor, if there was a change? The paper concludes with some suggestions for development and testing of new aviation forecasts to improve safety and reduce delays.
Summary
We discuss two specific short term aviation weather forecasts - convection and ceiling - to illustrate the issues that arise in thinking about the overall decision support system, key users, and training needed to generate benefits. We also consider reducing weather-related fatal accidents. Second, what is the preexisting "baseline" of...
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Exploration of a model relating route availability in en route airspace to actual weather coverage parameters
January 29, 2006
Conference Paper
Published in:
86th AMS Annual Mtg., 1st Symp. on Policy Research, January 2006.
Summary
A major concern in contemporary traffic flow management (TFM) is improving decision making when severe convective weather (Wx) impacts en route sectors throughout the National Airspace System (NAS). The FAA is currently seeking to reduce these convective weather delays through the use of multi-hour (e.g. 4 and 6 hour) Wx forecasts coupled with strategic planning by the FAA traffic flow managers and airline personnel to determine how en route traffic should be rerouted so as to avoid sector overloads and minimize the magnitude of the delays that occur [Huberdeau and Gentry (2004)]. One of the major challenges in the strategic planning process is the difficulty in converting the convective weather forecasts into forecasts of en route sector capacity. In this study, we explore the development of a model that can be combined with forecast validation data to translate probabilistic convective weather (Wx) forecasts into forecasts of a surrogate for sector capacity - the fraction of jet routes that would be blocked- within an en route sector.
Summary
A major concern in contemporary traffic flow management (TFM) is improving decision making when severe convective weather (Wx) impacts en route sectors throughout the National Airspace System (NAS). The FAA is currently seeking to reduce these convective weather delays through the use of multi-hour (e.g. 4 and 6 hour) Wx...
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Implications of a successful benefits demonstration for integrated weather/air traffic management (WX/ATM) system development and testing
January 29, 2006
Conference Paper
Published in:
12th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 29 January- 2 February 2006.
Summary
One of the major challenges in the US National Airspace System (NAS) today is improving the decisions made when adverse aviation weather occurs. Major increases in the usage of high altitude en route airspace by regional and corporate jets, coupled with greater use of "secondary" airports by low cost air carriers, have dramatically increased the complexity of operating the NAS during bad weather. One potentially powerful approach to improving decision making is to explicitly combine aviation weather information with aviation system information to create an integrated weather/air traffic management (wx/ATM) system that improves the productivity of the NAS operators. However, it will not be enough to be able to develop the technology that could make system improvements possible; it has now become increasingly important to demonstrate quantitative user benefits for any new initiatives. In this paper, we discuss the implications on the development and testing of wx/ATM systems of the need for a successful operational benefits demonstration of the new capability. The paper proceeds as follows. In the next section, we discuss how an integrated wx/ATM system differs from the "conventional" aviation weather decision process. Section 3 describes current efforts by the FAA and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to appropriately consider operational benefits as a factor in investment decision making. Section 4 discusses key elements of an "operational benefits centric" approach to wx/ATM system development and testing. Sections 5 and 6 discuss two contemporary examples of integrated wx/ATM systems in the context of section 4. The paper concludes with a summary and recommendations.
Summary
One of the major challenges in the US National Airspace System (NAS) today is improving the decisions made when adverse aviation weather occurs. Major increases in the usage of high altitude en route airspace by regional and corporate jets, coupled with greater use of "secondary" airports by low cost air...
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Quantifying air traffic control productivity enhancement for aviation convective weather decision support systems
January 29, 2006
Conference Paper
Published in:
12th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (ARAM), 28 January - 2 February 2006.
Summary
Major Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) planning documents (e.g., the FAA Flight Plan 2005-2008, the FAA Air Traffic Organization Fiscal Year 2005 Business Plan, and the Operational Evolution Plan) stress the importance of: Improving National Airspace System operations efficiency by increasing safety and capacity (e.g., reducing delays) and Providing FAA services more efficiently, such that operations costs can be reduced while improving safety and capacity. Continued improvements in air traffic delay mitigation in the NAS are imperative, given expectations for significant increases in near-term air traffic demand. The latest FAA aerospace growth forecast projects a 30% increase in Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) operations by 2015 (FAA Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, 2005). Improving Air Traffic Control (ATC) productivity during convective weather impact events is particularly important. Air traffic demand is escalating in an airspace network near capacity even in clear-weather. This will limit the ability to exploit advancements made in mitigating en route convective weather delays, unless fielded decision support systems are able to improve traffic management efficiency. Moreover, it is also essential that ATC productivity (e.g., as measured by the number of employees and overtime) be improved, given the reduction in Aviation Trust funding from the passenger ticket tax and overall federal funding constraints. We have previously described how a contemporary convective weather decision support system - the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) - can facilitate significantly improved capacity enhancing decisions, such as keeping routes open longer and proactive rerouting (e.g., Evans et al. 2005; Robinson et al. 2004). These CIWS-enabled capacity enhancements were shown to result in significant reductions in air traffic delays, airline operating costs, and delay-incurred passenger costs (Robinson et al. 2004). A study of the CIWS contributions to ATC productivity enhancements began in 2005. As part of this effort, real-time observations of CIWS product usage and the time to accomplish weather impact mitigation planning decisions during multiday thunderstorm events were carried out at 8 U.S. ARTCCs. A description of the design (and methodological challenges) of this experiment are presented in Section 2 of this paper. Improved ATC productivity was found to have two components: (1) Reduced workload and increased operational efficiency, as characterized by the amount of time required to develop and implement convective weather mitigation plans and the ability to enhance staffing decisions (2) Increased frequency of capacity enhancing decisions. Results demonstrating how CIWS helped traffic managers reduce workload and increase operational efficiency through time-savings and improved decision-making are presented in Section 3. Important factors such as the variation in performance from ARTCC to ARTCC are discussed in some detail. We show that a very important factor in this performance is whether the Area Supervisors at an ARTCC have direct access to CIWS products. The paper concludes by discussing future plans for CIWS ATC productivity enhancement investigations.
Summary
Major Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) planning documents (e.g., the FAA Flight Plan 2005-2008, the FAA Air Traffic Organization Fiscal Year 2005 Business Plan, and the Operational Evolution Plan) stress the importance of: Improving National Airspace System operations efficiency by increasing safety and capacity (e.g., reducing delays) and Providing FAA services...
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Improving air traffic management during thunderstorms
October 30, 2005
Conference Paper
Published in:
24th AIAA/IEEE Digital Avionics Systems Conf., 30 October - 3 November 2005, pp. 3.D.2-1 - 3.D.2-13.
Topic:
R&D area:
R&D group:
Summary
This paper discusses inter-related studies and development activities that address the significant challenges of implementing Air Traffic Management initiatives in airspace impacted by thunderstorms. We briefly describe current thrusts that will improve the quality and precision of thunderstorm forecasts, work in progress to convert these forecasts into estimates of future airspace capacity, and an initiative to develop a robust ATM optimization model based on future capacity estimates with associated uncertainty bounds. We conclude with a discussion of the thunderstorm ATM problem in the context of future advanced airspace management concepts.
Summary
This paper discusses inter-related studies and development activities that address the significant challenges of implementing Air Traffic Management initiatives in airspace impacted by thunderstorms. We briefly describe current thrusts that will improve the quality and precision of thunderstorm forecasts, work in progress to convert these forecasts into estimates of future...
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