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The FAA Terminal Convective Weather Forecast product: scale separation filter optimization
July 12, 1999
Conference Paper
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29th Int. Conf. on Radar Meteorology, 12-16 July 1999.
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Summary
A large percentage of serious air traffic delay at major airports in the warm season is caused by convective weather. The FAA Convective Weather Product Development team (PDT) has developed a Terminal Convective Weather Forecast product (TCWF) that can account for short-term (out to 60 min) systematic growth and decay of thunderstorms. The team began work three years ago by evaluating air traffic user needs and requirements. We found that users were willing to trade off forecast accuracy for longer lead times, especially for air traffic management plans that were easy to implement or that incurred low risk (Forman, et al., 1999). The PDT was able to develop an operationally useful forecast product that has been demonstrated in Dallas, TX since March, 1998 (Hallowell, et al., 1999). Further improvements have been made, and testing is now taking place at both Dallas and Orlando, FL. This paper summarizes the basic algorithm methodology and presents quantitative results on optimization of the scale separation filter, which is an integral aspect of the forecast algorithm.
Summary
A large percentage of serious air traffic delay at major airports in the warm season is caused by convective weather. The FAA Convective Weather Product Development team (PDT) has developed a Terminal Convective Weather Forecast product (TCWF) that can account for short-term (out to 60 min) systematic growth and decay...
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A case study of mid-level turbulence outside regions of active convection
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (ARAM), 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
Historically, the principal focus of research on clear-air turbulence of concern to aircraft has been on jet stream and mountain (orographic) induced turbulence. Relatively little research has focused on the turbulence hazard outside of, but in the vicinity of, convective storms, known as Convective Induced Turbulence (CIN). In this paper, we present our analysis requested by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) of the meteorological conditions leading to severe turbulence and near loss of flight control of a commercial passenger jet and find that they fall into the CIN category. On 12 May 1997, at approximately 1929 UT, an American Airlines Airbus A300 en route from Boston, MA to Miami, FL encountered severe turbulence off the coast of West Palm Beach, FL. Near the time of the incident the crew had been directed to hold at 16,000 ft because of weather and traffic near Miami International. While approaching the holding position, the aircraft experienced severe turbulence and dropped over 3000 vertical feet in 30 seconds. A detailed postevent analysis by the NTSB failed to find any causal evidence for the turbulence and no single sensor, data set, or pilot report examined by the NTSB provided justification for the magnitude of the event. Our independent analysis of the incident was conducted primarily using recorded Miami WSR-88D base data. The analysis revealed a small-scale vertical shear zone may have emanated from a thunderstorm upstream of the Airbus. Animated cross-sectional images also suggested that a rotor may have propagated with the mean wind and intersected the flight path at the time the severe turbulence was reported. This paper will focus on meteorological conditions that led to the upset and provide evidence for several possible causes of the turbulence.
Summary
Historically, the principal focus of research on clear-air turbulence of concern to aircraft has been on jet stream and mountain (orographic) induced turbulence. Relatively little research has focused on the turbulence hazard outside of, but in the vicinity of, convective storms, known as Convective Induced Turbulence (CIN). In this paper...
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The thunderstorm penetration/deviation decision in the terminal area
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 10-15 January 1999.
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During thunderstorm periods, terminal air traffic planners make a number of key decisions. They decide when to close and re-open arrival fixes, departure fixes, and runways; they anticipate and execute changes in runway configuration; they negotiate routing and flow rate decisions with Air Route Traffic Control Center (ART CC) traffic managers; and they set the airport acceptance rate. In making each of these decisions, the traffic planner looks at a weather radar display and makes an educated guess at answering the two following questions: - What will the weather be like in the airspace and time period in question? - Will the pilots be able and willing to fly through that airspace during that time? The same two questions will be important for advanced terminal automation systems. One key element of air traffic automation systems such as the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) is the calculation of candidate trajectories for each aircraft for the time period of automation control. To make this calculation, the automation software must know which routes will be usable during the control period. The first of the two fundamental questions is being addressed by the convective weather Product Development Team (PDT) of the FAA's Aviation Weather Research program. (Wolfson, 1997; Wolfson, 1999; Hallowell, 1999; Forman, 1999; Evans, 1997) The second fundamental question is the subject of the work reported here. The state of the art answer to the second question is a widely quoted air traffic control rule-of-thumb which says that pilots generally do not penetrate precipitation that is NWS VIP level 3 (i.e. 41 dBZ) or higher. That is not to say that air traffic controllers always vector aircraft around level 3+ cells but rather that they begin to anticipate pilot requests for deviations when the weather approaches level 3. A suite of new weather sensors have become available that provide much more comprehensive information on convective weather features than was available in the past. Additionally, flight-related data such as preceding pilot behavior and whether a flight is running late are easier to obtain than in the past. In this study we develop an objective quantitative assessment of which weather and flight-related variables best explain pilot deviation decision-making.
Summary
During thunderstorm periods, terminal air traffic planners make a number of key decisions. They decide when to close and re-open arrival fixes, departure fixes, and runways; they anticipate and execute changes in runway configuration; they negotiate routing and flow rate decisions with Air Route Traffic Control Center (ART CC) traffic...
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Achieving higher integrity in NEXRAD products through multi-sensor integration
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (ARAM), 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
The initial operational concept for the NEXRAD focused on support for the operational forecaster based on longstanding practice in use of weather radars by the National Weather Service (NWS) and Air Force as well as difficulties in developing reliable, fully automated phenomena detection algorithms [Crum, 1998]. By contrast, achieving high integrity in the narrow band products provided by NEXRAD to external users has received much less attention in the NEXRAD product development process thus far. However, other government weather information systems [especially the FAA's Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) and the Weather and Radar Processor (WARP)] and non-meteorologist external users of the NEXRAD products through the NEXRAD Information Distribution System (NIDS) vendors need very high integrity NEXRAD products. In the NWS context, the direct utilization of NEXRAD products into numerical weather prediction models will also create much more stringent requirements for integrity of the NEXRAD base data. Achieving very high integrity through automated analysis of only the data from a single NEXRAD is very difficult. In this paper, we consider the use of a much wider range of contextual information to create high integrity external user products. For instance, with the NEXRAD Open RPG and connectivity to AWIPS and ITWS, a system architecture will exist that will facilitate the implementation of NEXRAD product quality control algorithms that utilize information from other sensors. In the following sections, we present some examples of how information from various other sources might be used to improve the quality of the data from a NEXRAD. We first show an example of how data from adjacent NEXRADs can be used to help edit out the anomalous propagation (AP) ground clutter which currently is corrupting a number of the NEXRAD reflectivity products intended for air traffic controller use. In cases where the NEXRAD is near a major metropolitan area, data from the FAA's TDWR can be used to improve the integrity of the NEXRAD reflectivity products used for hydrology. Similarly, gridded wind fields estimated from multiple Doppler analyses, aircraft reports, and numerical models can be used to help address difficult challenges in Doppler ambiguity resolution for a single NEXRAD radar. The paper concludes with suggestions for near term demonstration and evaluation of multi sensor approaches to achieving high integrity in the NEXRAD products.
Summary
The initial operational concept for the NEXRAD focused on support for the operational forecaster based on longstanding practice in use of weather radars by the National Weather Service (NWS) and Air Force as well as difficulties in developing reliable, fully automated phenomena detection algorithms [Crum, 1998]. By contrast, achieving high...
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The benefits of using NEXRAD vertically integrated liquid water as an aviation weather product
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (ARAM), 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
Over the past five years in which the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) testbed prototypes have been operational, there have been regular discrepancies noticed between the ASR–9 six–level precipitation product and the NEXRAD six–level maximum composite reflectivity product. (1. The NEXRAD composite product used in this study is the NEXRAD maximum composite reflectivity product which both the FAA and the ITWS use for weather data.). At the three prototypes in Memphis, Orlando and Dallas, staff have recognized that in certain situations the NEXRAD composite reflectivity product, which is the ITWS 100 and 200 nm long–range product, can be as much as three Video Integrator and Processor (VIP) levels higher than the ASR–9 precipitation product. This situation has caused some confusion for users of the ITWS system and concern on the part of system safety monitors. The confusion occurs because the two products do not agree with each other. Rhoda and Pawlak (1998) show that more aircraft will deviate around cells of ASR–9 VIP level 4 or greater than will penetrate them. There is also an aviation rule–of–thumb that pilots and air traffic specialists use which states cells of VIP level 3 or greater should be avoided if possible. This rule is a good guide but cannot be applied to the NEXRAD composite product. While the NEXRAD composite may show a cell with an intensity of level 3 or 4, the cell may contain very little of the higher–intensity precipitation while the bulk of the cell contains only level 2. This problem is magnified in the winter months when bright–band effects contaminate the radar data. Clutter [especially anomalous propagation (AP)] contamination of the composite reflectivity product is also a concern (especially when the AP is adjacent to actual weather returns). Differences between the two products will become more apparent with the fielding of the new ITWS situation display which has the capability of displaying both NEXRAD composite reflectivity and ASR–9 data side by side. In this study, we compare the NEXRAD composite reflectivity product with data from both the ASR–9 weather channel and an ASR–9 mosaic product as well as a Vertically Integrated Liquid water (VIL) product generated from NEXRAD base data.
Summary
Over the past five years in which the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) testbed prototypes have been operational, there have been regular discrepancies noticed between the ASR–9 six–level precipitation product and the NEXRAD six–level maximum composite reflectivity product. (1. The NEXRAD composite product used in this study is the NEXRAD...
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Optimizing the ITWS algorithm designed to remove anomalous propagation ground clutter from the ASR-9 precipitation product
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
A key product within the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Initial Operating Capability (IOC) product suite removes anomalous propagation (AP) ground clutter from the ASR-9 precipitation product. This has been identified as a critical component of ITWS due to the frequent occurrence of AP when storms or outflows move over an ASR-9. Editing is accomplished by comparing the raw ASR-9 weather data to composite maps generated by the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) and the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR). An editing template, containing regions of AP, is created based on the ASR-9 data collected at the middle of the composite volume scan to minimize the difference in update rates. The template is used to edit the ASR-9 scan immediately after the composite map and all subsequent scans until a new composite map is received. This algorithm has been shown to perform quite well, especially if the weather and AP returns are not co-located. During the 1994 Demonstration and Validation Operational Test and Evaluation in Memphis (MEM) and Orlando (MCO), the probability of editing AP (PEAP) in the absence of weather was 0.97 for level 2 and greater returns (Klingle-Wilson, 1995). The probability of editing weather (PEW) for those cases with weather only was quite low, i.e., 0.01. In order to minimize the removal of weather returns in those cases where the AP and weather are located in close proximity, the editing thresholds are quite conservative. This is reflected by the 1994 results which show a PEAP of 0.81 and a PEW of 0.02 for this class of event. Besides the conservative thresholds, another area of concern is the fact that the AP regions can expand or increase in intensity after the AP editing template is created. This rapid variation frequently occurs with convectively generated AP and can cause the performance of the algorithm to decrease with time until a new template is created. In this study, we will examine the algorithm failure mechanisms in detail to identify possible site-adaptable parameter changes that can be used to improve the performance for the mixed weather/AP events. This is especially germane since the parameter set was not re-evaluated after the TDWR composite map was incorporated in 1995. In the critical region over the airport during hazardous weather conditions, this radar updates more frequently than the NEXRAD. Since the parameters were designed to account for the NEXRAD volume update rate, they are probably too conservative for the current algorithm (which uses both composite maps).
Summary
A key product within the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Initial Operating Capability (IOC) product suite removes anomalous propagation (AP) ground clutter from the ASR-9 precipitation product. This has been identified as a critical component of ITWS due to the frequent occurrence of AP when storms or outflows move over...
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A refinement of thunderstorm climatology for the terminal radar control airspace
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
Convective storms pose a significant threat to aviation safety, and often result in substantial fl ight delays for the commercial aviation industry. The overall impact of these storms is typically based on thunderstorm climatologies and are often one of the factors used in decisions by the US government regarding the operational benefits and allocation of its weather surveillance resources. These climatologies are based on the average number of days that a thunderstorm is observed at a particular airport. Due to the nature of the criteria used to identify a thunderstorm, the climatological statistics often do not accurately represent the number of thunderstorms that impact an airport's operations. The present study utilizes data from the Dallas Ft. Worth International Airport (DFW) and the Orlando International Airport (MCO) to identify deficiencies in the climatological data as it applies to aviation applications. A spatially representative climatology is presented as a more accurate climatology for use in evaluating the impact of convection on an airport's operations. This type of climatological estimate of thunderstorm frequency significantly increases the estimated number of thunderstorms impacting an airport and their associated costs.
Summary
Convective storms pose a significant threat to aviation safety, and often result in substantial fl ight delays for the commercial aviation industry. The overall impact of these storms is typically based on thunderstorm climatologies and are often one of the factors used in decisions by the US government regarding the...
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Addressing the weather delay problems of the New York City airports with the Integrated Terminal Weather System
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 10-15 1999.
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Summary
The three major New York City (NYC) air carrier airports (Kennedy, LaGuardia, Newark) currently experience high delays due to adverse terminal weather, both in an absolute sense and relative to other major airport complexes. Significantly expanding the NYC airports (e.g., by adding new runways) to reduce delays is not feasible. One alternative is to provide aviation weather decision support systems to air traffic, airline, and airport operations personnel to help them operate more safely and effectively with the existing runway/taxiway complexes. Under an innovative partnership between the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory has installed and is currently operating a functional prototype Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) to conduct research on improving the safety and efficiency of operations at the NYC airports during adverse weather. The New York terminal area provides a stringent test of the ITWS ability to safely reduce delays due to both the meteorology and the operational usage challenges not found at the earlier ITWS test locations of Orlando, Memphis, and Dallas. In this paper, we describe key features of the New York terminal environment and the ITWS prototype, the initial experience in addressing the meteorological and operational usage challenges of the New York terminal area, and describe plans for the coming years.
Summary
The three major New York City (NYC) air carrier airports (Kennedy, LaGuardia, Newark) currently experience high delays due to adverse terminal weather, both in an absolute sense and relative to other major airport complexes. Significantly expanding the NYC airports (e.g., by adding new runways) to reduce delays is not feasible...
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Thunderstorm induced gravity waves as a potential hazard to commercial aircraft
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
Under certain atmospheric conditions, thunderstorm development can induce a phenomenon known as gravity waves (i.e., buoyancy or density waves). These waves are characterized by alternating regions of convergence and divergence over a relatively short distance. Such aerodynamic shear can become hazardous to air traffic if the shear contained within the waves surpasses the threshold for air traffic safety. Gravity waves are particularly hazardous because they develop in seemingly benign weather surrounding the parent thunderstorm and in many cases are not associated with any visual storm feature. Several cases have been studied in which commercial aircraft have encountered gravity waves and have been adversely affected by their encounters. The purpose of this study is to show how gravity waves can have a detrimental effect on aircraft in flight, how gravity waves can be detected, and that need for a detection algorithm exists. With the development of the National Weather Service's Next Generation Radar (WSR–88D NEXRAD) and the Federal Aviation Administration's Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), the ability to detect gravity waves exists near many of America's major airports. Since gravity waves are a low–level phenomenon (generally below 2 km), their presence should be of interest to aircraft in the takeoff and landing stages of flight. During operations at Lincoln Laboratory's Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) prototype field site in Dallas, there have been at least two incidents in which commercial aircraft experienced wind shear of at least 40 knots on takeoff, possibly caused by single or multiple gravity wave bands. This study will look at 57 cases of gravity wave formation within the terminal areas of Dallas–Ft. Worth International, Memphis International, and Orlando International airports. Statistics will be compiled to determine the frequency and severity of the gravity waves as well as their duration. The study will include Pilot Reports (PIREPS) from a few of these cases in which aircraft experienced wind shear due to suspected encounters with gravity waves. It is the hope of the author that this study will lead to the development of a detection algorithm that will increase the safety of America's commercial air traffic.
Summary
Under certain atmospheric conditions, thunderstorm development can induce a phenomenon known as gravity waves (i.e., buoyancy or density waves). These waves are characterized by alternating regions of convergence and divergence over a relatively short distance. Such aerodynamic shear can become hazardous to air traffic if the shear contained within the...
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The Terminal Convective Weather Forecast demonstration at the DFW International Airport
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (ARAM), 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
The FAA Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT) is tasked with developing products for convective weather forecasts for aviation users. The overall product development is a collaborative effort between scientists from MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). As part of the PDT, MIT/LL is being funded to develop algorithms for accurately forecasting the location of strong precipitation in and around airport terminal areas. We began by consulting with air traffic personnel and commercial airline dispatchers to determine the needs of aviation users. Users indicated that convective weather, particularly line storms, caused the most consistent problems for managing air traffic. These storms are by far the major cause of aircraft delays and diversions. MIT/LL has already developed the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) which combines a variety of near-airport sensors to provide a wide range of current weather information to aviation users. Raytheon is currently building the production ITWS system which will be deployed at 45 major airports by 2003. The initial capability ITWS already provides some convective weather predictive capabilities in the form of storm motion vectors and "Storm Extrapolated Positions" (SEP; leading edge of storm at 10 and 20 minutes). But ITWS users indicated a desire for enhanced forecasts which showed the full spatial extent of the weather, how the weather would change (grow or decay) and extended forecast time periods to at least out one hour. Our approach is to develop an algorithm which may be added as a future product improvement to the ITWS system. Previous attempts at producing forecasts have focused on convective initiation and building from short-term (20-30 min) cell forecasts. Our "reverse time" approach of attacking longer time scale (60 min) features first is an outgrowth of addressing user needs and the discovery of improved tracking techniques for large scale precipitation features. The "Growth and Decay Tracker" developed by MIT/LL (Wolfson et.al., 1999) allows us to generate accurate short and long term forecasts of large scale precipitation features. This paper details the Terminal Convective Weather Forecast (TCWF) demonstration ongoing at Dallas/Ft. Worth International Airport (DFW) and discusses the underlying algorithm being developed.
Summary
The FAA Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT) is tasked with developing products for convective weather forecasts for aviation users. The overall product development is a collaborative effort between scientists from MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). As...
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