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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 7 report

February 12, 2020
  |
Project Report
Author:
Christopher Edwards
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-444
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

This report details the Required Time of Arrival (RTA) performance of B757 aircraft arriving at various meter fixes across a range of altitudes from 33,000' down to 3,000' above ground level (AGL). The system tested demonstrated less than ±10 second arrival error in at least 95% of flights at meter fixes down to 7,000' AGL regardless of the forecast quality provided. Below 7,000' AGL, RTA performance significantly degraded demonstrating around 80% compliance under the best forecast and operating conditions. This report also provides a comprehensive lexicon of aviation and air traffic control related "wind" terms.
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Summary

This report details the Required Time of Arrival (RTA) performance of B757 aircraft arriving at various meter fixes across a range of altitudes from 33,000' down to 3,000' above ground level (AGL). The system tested demonstrated less than ±10 second arrival error in at least 95% of flights at meter...

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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 7 report

Wind information requirements for NextGen operations, phase 5 report

August 22, 2017
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Project Report
Author:
Christopher Edwards
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-439
Topic:
air traffic control
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

NextGen applications with time-based control elements, such as required time of arrival (RTA) at a meter fix under 4D trajectory-based operations (4D-TBO)/time of arrival control (TOAC) procedures or assigned spacing goal between aircraft under Interval Management (IM) procedures, are subject to the quality of the atmospheric forecast utilized by participating aircraft. The work described in this report summarizes the major activities conducted in the current phase of this program which builds upon prior work. The major objectives were: 1. Support RTCA Special Committee-206 Aeronautical Information and Meteorological Data Link Services and co-chair a sub-group responsible for developing the document "Guidance for Data Linking Forecast and Real-Time Wind Information to Aircraft." 2. Analyze the performance of publicly available forecast as compared to in-situ reported atmospheric conditions, specifically comparing Global Forecast System (GFS) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast data to recorded in-flight weather Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS) data. 3. Analyze current and future Flight Management Systems (FMSs) to conduct operations at significantly lower altitudes than previous studies. 4. Evaluate potential sources of aircraft-derived winds to better support 4D-TBO activities. 5. Provide recommendations for high-value future work.
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Summary

NextGen applications with time-based control elements, such as required time of arrival (RTA) at a meter fix under 4D trajectory-based operations (4D-TBO)/time of arrival control (TOAC) procedures or assigned spacing goal between aircraft under Interval Management (IM) procedures, are subject to the quality of the atmospheric forecast utilized by participating...

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Wind information requirements for NextGen operations, phase 5 report

Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 4 final report

March 6, 2017
  |
Project Report
Author:
Christopher Edwards
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-431
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The success of many NextGen applications with time-based control elements, such as Required Time of Arrival (RTA) at a meter fix under 4D-Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO/Time of Arrival Control (TOAC) procedures or compliance to an Assigned Spacing Goal (ASG) between aircraft under Interval Management (IM) procedures, are subject to the quality of the atmospheric forecast utilized by participating aircraft. Erroneous information derived from provided forecast data, such as the magnitude of future headwinds relative to the headwinds actually experienced during flight, or forecast data that is insufficient to fully describe the forthcoming atmospheric conditions, can significantly degrade the performance of an attempted procedure. The work described in this report summarizes the major activities conducted in Fiscal Year 2015.
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Summary

The success of many NextGen applications with time-based control elements, such as Required Time of Arrival (RTA) at a meter fix under 4D-Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO/Time of Arrival Control (TOAC) procedures or compliance to an Assigned Spacing Goal (ASG) between aircraft under Interval Management (IM) procedures, are subject to the...

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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 4 final report

Wind Information Requirements for NextGen Applications - Phase 3 Final Report(3.98 MB)

December 15, 2014
  |
Project Report
Author:
Christopher Edwards
…
Published in:
Project Report ATC-422, MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Many NextGen applications depend on access to high accuracy wind data due to time-based control elements, such as required time of arrival at a meter fix under 4D-Trajectory-Based Operations/Time of Arrival Control procedures or compliance to an assigned spacing goal between aircraft under Interval Management procedures. The work described in this report summarizes the activities conducted in FY14, which builds upon prior work.
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Summary

Many NextGen applications depend on access to high accuracy wind data due to time-based control elements, such as required time of arrival at a meter fix under 4D-Trajectory-Based Operations/Time of Arrival Control procedures or compliance to an assigned spacing goal between aircraft under Interval Management procedures. The work described in...

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Wind Information Requirements for NextGen Applications - Phase 3 Final Report

Wind information requirements for NextGen applications, phase 3 final report

December 15, 2014
  |
Project Report
Author:
Christopher Edwards
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-422
Topic:
weather
R&D area:

Summary

Many NextGen applications depend on access to high accuracy wind data due to time-based control elements, such as required time of arrival at a meter fix under 4D-Trajectory-Based Operations/Time of Arrival Control procedures or compliance to an assigned spacing goal between aircraft under Interval Management procedures. Any errors in the ground and/or aircraft wind information relative to the truth winds actually flown through can significantly degrade the performance of the procedure. Unacceptable performance could be mitigated by improving wind information in the aircraft, for example, by using higher accuracy wind forecast models to generate wind inputs for the ground or airborne systems, updating wind information more frequently, or to upgrade the way winds are handled in the avionics systems. The work described in this report summarizes the activities conducted in FY14, which builds upon prior work. It (1) establishes the relationship of wind information accuracy to 4D-TBO and IM performance for a selection of operationally relevant scenarios to identify wind needs to support them, and (2) presents examples of what wind information content and update rate to the aircraft will deliver a given target performance level to help inform concept of operations development and datalink technology needs.
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Summary

Many NextGen applications depend on access to high accuracy wind data due to time-based control elements, such as required time of arrival at a meter fix under 4D-Trajectory-Based Operations/Time of Arrival Control procedures or compliance to an assigned spacing goal between aircraft under Interval Management procedures. Any errors in the...

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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications, phase 3 final report

Wind information requirements for NextGen applications - phase 2 final report - framework refinement and application to four-dimensional trajectory based operations (4D-TBO) and interval management (IM)

May 20, 2014
  |
Project Report
Author:
Thomas G. Reynolds
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-418
Topic:
weather
R&D area:

Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to some of the critical future air traffic concepts under the FAA's Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) initiative. Concepts involving time elements, such as Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) and Interval Management (IM), are especially sensitive to wind information accuracy. There is a growing need to establish appropriate concepts of operation and target performance requirements accounting for wind information accuracy for these types of procedure, and meeting these needs is the purpose of this project. In the first phase of this work, a Wind Information Analysis Framework was developed to help explore the relationship of wind information to NextGen application performance. A refined version of the framework has been developed for the Phase 2 work that highlights the role stakeholders play in defining Air Traffic Control (ATC) scenarios, distinguishes wind scenarios into benign, moderate, severe, and extreme categories, and more clearly identifies what and how wind requirements recommendations are developed from the performance assessment trade-spaces. This report documents how this refined analysis framework has been used in Phase 2 of the work in terms of: -Refined wind information metrics and wind scenario selection process applicable to a broader range of NextGen applications, with particular focus on 4D-TBO and IM. -Expanded and refined studies of 4D-TBO applications with current Flight Management Systems (FMS) (with MITRE collaboration) to identify more accurate trade-spaces using operational FMS capabilities with higher-fidelity aircraft models. -Expansion of the 4D-TBO study using incremental enhancements possible in future FMSs (with Honeywell collaboration), specifically in the area of wind blending algorithms to quantify performance improvement potential from near-term avionics refinements. -Demonstrating the adaptability of the Wind Information Analysis Framework by using it to identify initial wind information needs for IM applications.
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Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to some of the critical future air traffic concepts under the FAA's Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) initiative. Concepts involving time elements, such as Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) and Interval Management (IM), are especially sensitive to wind information accuracy. There is...

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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications - phase 2 final report - framework refinement and application to four-dimensional trajectory based operations (4D-TBO) and interval management (IM)

Wind Information Requirements for NextGen Applications - Phase 2 Final Report(7.63 MB)

May 1, 2014
  |
Project Report
Author:
Thomas G. Reynolds
…
Published in:
Project Report ATC-418, MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to some of the critical future air traffic concepts envisioned under the FAA’s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) initiative. In the first phase of this work, a Wind Information Analysis Framework was developed to help explore the relationship of wind information to NextGen application performance. A refined version of the framework has been developed for the Phase 2 work.
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Summary

Accurate wind information is of fundamental importance to some of the critical future air traffic concepts envisioned under the FAA’s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) initiative. In the first phase of this work, a Wind Information Analysis Framework was developed to help explore the relationship of wind information to...

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Wind Information Requirements for NextGen Applications - Phase 2 Final Report

Initial assessment of wind forecasts for Airport Acceptance Rate (AAR) and Ground Delay Program (GDP) planning

January 29, 2014
  |
Project Report
Author:
Richard A. DeLaura
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-414
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

The planning and execution of the Airport Acceptance Rate (AAR) for major metroplex airports is a complex and critical function of traffic managers in the National Airspace System (NAS). Despite the importance of AAR planning, traffic managers currently have no widely available decision support to provide guidance for runway selection and the determination of a sustainable AAR. The AAR Decision Support Capability (AARDSC), currently under development as part of the Collaborative Air Traffic Management Technology Work Package 4 (CATMT WP4), will provide such guidance. This report provides an initial analysis of the impacts of surface winds and winds aloft on the key factors associated with the AAR (the selection of runway configuration and aircraft ground speed and spacing on final approach) and the capabilities of currently available weather forecasts to accurately predict those impacts. The report was limited in scope by the schedule and available resources, and is intended as a foundation for a comprehensive forecast assessment in follow-on work. Surface wind forecasts from the Terminal Aerodome Forecast (TAF) and numerical prediction models (the High Resolution Rapid Refresh [HRRR], Rapid Refresh [RAP] and Rapid Update Cycle [RUC], collectively described as "MODEL") were compared to observed winds gathered from METAR reports as Newark International Airport (EWR). TAF and METAR were compared for 639 days of operations from 2011-2013. MODEL forecasts and METAR were compared for 21 days of operation, 16 of which had Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) in place to mitigate adverse weather impacts. Winds aloft were translated into several wind impact metrics. The impacts of winds aloft forecast errors were evaluated by comparing impact metrics calculated from MODEL forecasts with those calculated from analysis fields for the 21 case days. Forecasts were evaluated at horizons of 2, 4, 6, and 8 hours.
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Summary

The planning and execution of the Airport Acceptance Rate (AAR) for major metroplex airports is a complex and critical function of traffic managers in the National Airspace System (NAS). Despite the importance of AAR planning, traffic managers currently have no widely available decision support to provide guidance for runway selection...

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Initial assessment of wind forecasts for Airport Acceptance Rate (AAR) and Ground Delay Program (GDP) planning

Airport surface traffic management decision support - perspectives based on tower flight data manager prototype

May 20, 2013
  |
Project Report
Author:
Vineet Mehta
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-398
Topic:
decision support
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

This report describes accomplishments and insights gathererd during the development of decision support tools as part of the Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) program. This work was performed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory and sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The TFDM program integrated flight data, aircraft surveillance, information on weather and traffic flow constraints, and other data required to optimize airport conguration and arrival/departure management functions. The prototype has been evaluated in both human-in-the-loop simulations, and during operational tests at Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport. In parallel, the Laboratory estimated future national operational benefits for TFDM decision support functions, using analysis and performance data gathered from major airports in the US. This analysis indicated that the greatest potential operational benefits would come from decision support tools that facilitate: i) managing runway queues and sequences, ii) tactical management of flight routes and times, impacted by weather and traffic constraints, and iii) managing airport configuration changes. Evaluation of TFDM prototype decision support functions in each of these areas provided valuable insights relative to the maturity of current capabilities and research needed to close performance gaps.
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Summary

This report describes accomplishments and insights gathererd during the development of decision support tools as part of the Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) program. This work was performed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory and sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The TFDM program integrated flight data, aircraft surveillance, information on...

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Airport surface traffic management decision support - perspectives based on tower flight data manager prototype

Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 1: 4D-trajectory based operations (4D-TBO)

February 20, 2013
  |
Project Report
Author:
Thomas G. Reynolds
…
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-399
Topic:
weather
R&D area:
R&D group:

Summary

Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework has been developed to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is described and then applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using simplified versions of the framework's elements to demonstrate its utility. Realistic ranges of wind information accuracy in terms of wind forecast and Flight Management System wind representation errors are studied. Their impacts on 4D-TBO performance in terms of Required Time of Arrival compliance and fuel burn are presented. Interpretations of the findings to give insights on wind information requirements are provided, together with an outline of the planned next phase of the study to further refine the outputs.
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Summary

Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework has been developed to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is described and then applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using...

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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 1: 4D-trajectory based operations (4D-TBO)
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