Publications

Phased array radars (PARs) are a promising observing technology, at the cusp of being available to the broader meteorological community. PARs offer near-instantaneous sampling of the atmosphere with flexible beam forming, multifunctionality, and low operational and maintenance costs and without mechanical inertia limitations. These PAR features are transformative compared to those offered by our current reflector-based meteorological radars. The integration of PARs into meteorological research has the potential to revolutionize the way we observe the atmosphere. The rate of adoption of PARs in research will depend on many factors, including (i) the need to continue educating the scientific community on the full technical capabilities and trade-offs of PARs through an engaging dialogue with the science and engineering communities and (ii) the need to communicate the breadth of scientific bottlenecks that PARs can overcome in atmospheric measurements and the new research avenues that are now possible using PARs in concert with other measurement systems. The former is the subject of a companion article that focuses on PAR technology while the latter is the objective here.

One of the most significant challenges—and potential opportunities—for the scientific community is society's insatiable need for the radio spectrum. Wireless communication systems have profoundly impacted the world's economies and its inhabitants. Newer technological uses in telemedicine, Internet of Things, streaming services, intelligent transportation, etc., are driving the rapid development of 5G/6G (and beyond) wireless systems that demand ever-increasing bandwidth and performance. Without question, these wireless technologies provide an important benefit to society with the potential to mitigate the economic divide across the world. Fundamental science drives the development of future technologies and benefits society through an improved understanding of the world in which we live. Often, these studies require use of the radio spectrum, which can lead to an adversarial relationship between ever evolving technology commercialization and the quest for scientific understanding. Nowhere is this contention more acute than with atmospheric remote sensing and associated weather forecasts (Saltikoff et al. 2016; Witze 2019), which was the theme for the virtual Workshop on Spectrum Challenges and Opportunities for Weather Observations held in November 2020 and hosted by the University of Oklahoma. The workshop focused on spectrum challenges for remote sensing observations of the atmosphere, including active (e.g., weather radars, cloud radars) and passive (e.g., microwave imagers, radiometers) systems for both spaceborne and ground-based applications. These systems produce data that are crucial for weather forecasting—we chose to primarily limit the workshop scope to forecasts up to 14 days, although some observations (e.g., satellite) cover a broader range of temporal scales. Nearly 70 participants from the United States, Europe, South America, and Asia took part in a concentrated and intense discussion focused not only on current radio frequency interference (RFI) issues, but potential cooperative uses of the spectrum ("spectrum sharing"). Equally important to the workshop's international makeup, participants also represented different sectors of the community, including academia, industry, and government organizations. Given the importance of spectrum challenges to the future of scientific endeavor, the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) recently began the Spectrum Innovation Initiative (SII) program, which has a goal to synergistically grow 5G/6G technologies with crucial scientific needs for spectrum as an integral part of the design process. The SII program will accomplish this goal in part through establishing the first nationwide institute focused on 5G/6G technologies and science. The University of California, San Diego (UCSD), is leading an effort to compete for NSF SII funding to establish the National Center for Wireless Spectrum Research. As key partners in this effort, the University of Oklahoma (OU) and The Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hosted this workshop to bring together intellectual leaders with a focus on impacts of the spectrum revolution on weather observations and numerical weather prediction.

This article summarizes research and risk reduction that will inform acquisition decisions regarding NOAA's future national operational weather radar network. A key alternative being evaluated is polarimetric phased-array radar (PAR). Research indicates PAR can plausibly achieve fast, adaptive volumetric scanning, with associated benefits for severe-weather warning performance. We assess these benefits using storm observations and analyses, observing system simulation experiments, and real radar-data assimilation studies. Changes in the number and/or locations of radars in the future network could improve coverage at low altitude. Analysis of benefits that might be so realized indicates the possibility for additional improvement in severe weather and flash-flood warning performance, with associated reduction in casualties. Simulations are used to evaluate techniques for rapid volumetric scanning and assess data quality characteristics of PAR. Finally, we describe progress in developing methods to compensate for polarimetric variable estimate biases introduced by electronic beam-steering. A research-to-operations (R2O) strategy for the PAR alternative for the WSR-88D replacement network is presented.

This paper summarizes the challenges in achieving (and even specifying) the antenna polarization accuracy requirements for the Multifunction Phased Array Radar (MPAR) and the progress that has been made towards meeting these requirements through demonstrations and theoretical investigations.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) initiated the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) program in the mid-1980s in response to overwhelming scientific evidence that low-altitude wind shear had caused a number of major air-carrier accidents. The program is designed to develop a reliable automated system for detecting low-altitude wind shear in the terminal area and providing warnings that will help pilots successfully avoid it on approach and departure. Wind shear has caused more U.S. air-carrier fatalities than any other weather hazard. A 1983 National Research Council (NRC) study (National Research Council, 1983) identified low-altitude wind shear as the cause of 27 aircraft accidents and incidents between 1964 and 1982. A total of 488 people died in seven of these accidents, 112 of them in the 1975 crash of Eastern Flight 66 at New York and 153 in the crash of Pan American Flight 759 at New Orleans in 1982. Since the NRC study was completed, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has investigated at least three more wind-shear incidents. One of these, the crash of Delta Flight 191 at Dallas/Fort Worth on August 2, 1985, took another 137 lives. Wind shear is not a serious hazard for aircraft enroute between airports at normal cruising altitudes, but low-level wind shear in the terminal area can be deadly for an aircraft on approach or departure. The most hazardous form of wind shear is the microburst, an outflow of air from a small-scale but powerful downward gush of cold, heavy air that can occur beneath a thunderstorm or rain shower or even in rain-free air under a harmless-looking cumulus cloud. As this downdraft reaches the earth's surface, it spreads out horizontally, like a stream of water sprayed straight down on a concrete driveway from a garden hose. An aircraft that flies through a microburst at low altitude first encounters a strong headwind, then a downdraft, and finally a tailwind that produces a sharp reduction in airspeed and a sudden loss of lift. This deadly sequence of events caused the fatal crash at Dallas/Fort Worth in 1985, as well as a number of other serious air-carrier accidents. Wind shear can also be associated with gust fronts, warm and cold fronts, and strong winds near the ground. It is important for pilots to be trained in recovery techniques to use if they are caught in wind shear. But a sudden windspeed change of at least 40 to 50 knots, which is not uncommon in microbursts, presents a serious hazard to jet airliners, and some microbursts simply are non-survivable. The only sure way to survive wind shear in the terminal area is to avoid it. However, flight crews do not have adequate information available today to predict or detect wind shear. The primary goal of the IDWR program is to provide pilots with an objective, quantitative assessment of the wind-shear hazard. The TDWR system also will improve operational efficiency and reduce delays in the terminal area by providing air traffic control supervisors with timely warnings of impending wind shifts resulting from gust fronts.