Publications
Reducing severe weather delays in congested airspace with weather decision support for tactical air traffic management
June 23, 2003
Conference Paper
Published in:
5th Eurocontrol/DAA ATM R&D Seminar, 23-27 June 2003.
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R&D area:
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Summary
Reducing congested airspace delays due to thunderstorms has become a major objective of the FAA due to the recent growth in convective delays. In 2000 and 2001 the key new initiative for reducing these convective weather delays was "strategic" traffic flow management (TFM) at time scales between 2 and 6 hours in advance using collaborative weather forecasts and routing strategy development. This "strategic" approach experienced difficulties in a large fraction of the weather events because it was not possible to forecast convective storm impacts on routes and capacities accurately enough to accomplish effective traffic flow management. Hence, we proposed in 2001 that there needed to be much greater emphasis on tactical air traffic management at time scales where it would be possible to generate much more accurate convective weather forecasts. In this paper, we describe initial operational results in the very highly congested Great Lakes and Northeast Corridors using weather products from the ongoing Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) concept exploration. Key new capabilities provided by this system include very high update rates (to support tactical air traffic control), much improved echo-tops information, and fully automatic 2-hour convective forecasts using the latest "scale separation" storm tracking technologies. Displays were provided at major terminal areas, en route centers in the corridors, and the FAA Command Center. Substantial reduction in delays has been achieved mostly through weather product usage at the shorter time scales. Quantifying the achieved benefits for this class of products have raised major questions about the conceptual framework for traffic flow management in these congested corridors that must be addressed in the development of air traffic management systems to utilize the weather products.
Summary
Reducing congested airspace delays due to thunderstorms has become a major objective of the FAA due to the recent growth in convective delays. In 2000 and 2001 the key new initiative for reducing these convective weather delays was "strategic" traffic flow management (TFM) at time scales between 2 and 6...
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Route selection decision support in convective weather: a case study of the effects of weather and operational assumptions on departure throughput
June 23, 2003
Conference Paper
Published in:
5th Eurocontrol/FAA ATM R&D Seminar, 23-27 2003.
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R&D area:
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Summary
This paper presents a detailed study of a convective weather event affecting the northeastern United States on 19 April 2002: its impacts on departure throughput, the response of traffic managers and an analysis of the potential effects of decision support on system performance. We compare actual departure throughput to what may have been achieved using the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT), a prototype decision support tool. We examine two questions: Can decision support identify opportunities to release departures that were missed during the event? How is route selection guidance affected by the operational model incorporated into the decision support tool? By "operational model", we mean three things: the choice of weather forecast information used to define hazards (precipitation, echo tops, etc.), the model for how airspace is used (route definition and allocation) and the assessment of the likelihood that a given route is passable. We focus our analysis on the operational model only; we eliminate weather forecast uncertainty as a factor in the analysis by running RAPT using the actual observed weather as the forecast ('perfect' forecast). Results show that decision support based on perfect forecasts is sensitive to all three elements of the operational model. The sensitivity to weather metrics became evident when we compared decision support based upon perfect forecasts of level 3 vertically integrated liquid (VIL) to that based upon VIL plus storm echo tops. Traffic managers were at times able to move more aircraft by abandoning nominal routing than if they had used nominal routing with perfect weather information. The assessment of route availability will, at times, be ambiguous; different interpretations of that assessment lead to decisions that result in significant differences in departure throughput. These results suggest that for traffic flow management tools, a realistic operational model may be at least as important as the frequently discussed problem of weather forecast uncertainty.
Summary
This paper presents a detailed study of a convective weather event affecting the northeastern United States on 19 April 2002: its impacts on departure throughput, the response of traffic managers and an analysis of the potential effects of decision support on system performance. We compare actual departure throughput to what...
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The effect of topography on the initial condition sensitivity of a mesoscale model
June 23, 2003
Conference Paper
Published in:
10th Conf. on Mesoscale Processes, 23-27 June 2003.
Summary
Errors in NWP model forecasts are typically due to deficiencies in the model formulation, inaccuracies associated with the numerical integration techniques, and errors in the specification of initial conditions. This study investigates the latter of these three issues and, in particular, elucidates the errors in the initial conditions due to inadequate data resolution. In a basic sense, for the atmosphere to be adequately sampled at a given length scale, it is not always necessary to increase the number of samples throughout the entire domain. Increased sampling resolution has the greatest benefit in the regions where gradients in the atmospheric conditions exist. Targeted observation techniques attempt to take advantage of this fact by using additional observations to improve the initial analysis in the regions that will have the most impact on forecast accuracy (Emanuel et al. 1995). The result is an economical means to reduce initial condition error and improve forecast accuracy. It is well known that terrain can serve as a localized forcing mechanism in high-resolution models. In addition to acting as a forcing mechanism, variations in terrain can also create strong gradients in the atmospheric fields of models using terrain following vertical coordinates. It is reasonable to assume that if these gradients were better represented in the initial conditions, forecasts accuracies could improve. The present study examines the relationship between terrain variability and the sensitivity of a high-resolution wind forecast to errors in the initial conditions in these areas. The background behind this study and a brief description of the terrain and atmospheric characteristics of the cases used in the experiments are presented in section 2. Initial condition sensitivity analysis results from the fifth generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) adjoint and forward models are contained in sections 3 and 4. A summary of the results and conclusions are found in section 5.
Summary
Errors in NWP model forecasts are typically due to deficiencies in the model formulation, inaccuracies associated with the numerical integration techniques, and errors in the specification of initial conditions. This study investigates the latter of these three issues and, in particular, elucidates the errors in the initial conditions due to...
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Accuracy of motion-compensated NEXRAD precipitation
June 23, 2003
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-312
Summary
A number of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) aviation weather systems utilize Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation products including the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS), Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS), Medium Intensity Airport Weather System (MIAWS), and the Weather and Radar Processor (WARP). The precipitation products from a NEXRAD [e.g., base reflectivity, composite reflectivity (CR), and vertical integrated liquid (VIL)] are generally only updated once with each NEXRAD volume scan, nominally at 5-6 minute intervals. Hence, the indicated position of storms may not correspond to the actual position due to movement of the storms since the last NEXRAD product update. This latency is particularly a concern in terminal applications such as MIAWS, which use the NEXRAD precipitation product to provide time critical information on moderate and heavy precipitation impacts on the final approach and departure corridors and runways. In order to provide a more accurate depiction, the MIAWS precipitation map is updated (advected) every 30 seconds based on the motion of the storms. The CIWS system performs a similar advection of NEXRAD data before mosaicing the precipitation products from individual NEXRADs. In both cases, motion vectors used for advection are generated by spatial cross-correlation of two consecutive precipitation maps (Chornoboy et al., 1994). This report addresses the accuracy of the advected precipitation map as compared to the current NEXRAD precipitation map using seven MIAWS cases from the Memphis, TN testbed and Jackson, MS prototype. We find that the advected precipitation product is significantly more accurate at providing a depiction of the current intensity of the storms as a fbnction of location. Without advection, the precipitation product from successive NEXRAD volume scans differs by at least one VIP level for over 47.5% of the one square kilometer pixels and has VIP level differences of two levels or more for 6.9% of the pixels in cases where both products had precipitation in a location. The advected precipitation product differs by one or more levels in only 17.2% of the pixels and a VIP level difference of two or more levels is observed in only 1.6% of the pixels. The percentage of cells in which there is precipitation in one map and no precipitation in the other is reduced from over 22% to less than 11% by use of advection. The analysis approach utilized did not quantitatively determine the relative importance of storm growth and decay over the period of the volume scan versus errors in storm motion estimation in causing the differences between the advected precipitation field and the current precipitation field.
Summary
A number of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) aviation weather systems utilize Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation products including the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS), Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS), Medium Intensity Airport Weather System (MIAWS), and the Weather and Radar Processor (WARP). The precipitation products from a NEXRAD [e.g...
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Overview of the Earth Observing One (EO-1) mission
June 1, 2003
Journal Article
Published in:
IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., Vol. 41, No. 6, Pt. 1, June 2003, pp. 1149-1159.
Summary
The Earth Observing One (EO-1) satellite, a part of National Aeronautics and Space Administration's New Millennium Program, was developed to demonstrate new technologies and strategies for improved earth observations. It was launched from Vandenburg Air Force Base on November 21, 2000. The EO-1 satellite contains three observing instruments supported by a variety of newly developed space technologies. The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) is a prototype for a new generation of Landsat-7 Thematic Mapper. The Hyperion Imaging Spectrometer is the first high spatial resolution imaging spectrometer to orbit the earth. The Linear Etalon Imaging Spectral Array (LEISA) Atmospheric Corrector (LAC) is a high spectral resolution wedge imaging spectrometer designed to measure atmospheric water vapor content. Instrument performances are validated and carefully monitored through a combination of radiometric calibration approaches: solar, lunar, stellar, earth (vicarious), and atmospheric observations complemented by onboard calibration lamps and extensive prelaunch calibration. Techniques for spectral calibration of space-based sensors have been tested and validated with Hyperion. ALI and Hyperion instrument performance continue to meet or exceed predictions well beyond the planned one-year program. This paper reviews the EO-1 satellite system and provides details of the instruments and their performance as measured during the first year of operation. Calibration techniques and tradeoffs between alternative approaches are discussed. An overview of the science applications for instrument performance assessment is presented.
Summary
The Earth Observing One (EO-1) satellite, a part of National Aeronautics and Space Administration's New Millennium Program, was developed to demonstrate new technologies and strategies for improved earth observations. It was launched from Vandenburg Air Force Base on November 21, 2000. The EO-1 satellite contains three observing instruments supported by...
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Medium intensity airport weather system NEXRAD selection recommendations
April 29, 2003
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-311
Summary
Under Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) sponsorship, Lincoln Laboratory has developed a Medium Intensity Airport Weather System (MIAWS). MIAWS provides air traffic controllers at medium- intensity airports a real time color display of weather impacting the terminal airspace. The weather data comes from nearby Doppler weather surveillance radars, called Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD). since May 2000 at field sites in Memphis (TN), Jackson (MS), Little Rock (AR), and Springfield (MO). With the success of the MIAWS prototypes and favorable response among air traffic controller users, the FAA is seeking to rapidly deploy MIAWS systems at forty airports within the National Airspace System Lincoln Lab has been operating prototypes of the Medium Intensity Airport Weather System (MIAWS) WAS). This report identifies suitable NEXRAD systems for each of the 40 MIAWS airports and three additional test and/or maintenance FAA facilities. Several other radar selection options are also provided to account for availability and cost-saving contingencies.
Summary
Under Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) sponsorship, Lincoln Laboratory has developed a Medium Intensity Airport Weather System (MIAWS). MIAWS provides air traffic controllers at medium- intensity airports a real time color display of weather impacting the terminal airspace. The weather data comes from nearby Doppler weather surveillance radars, called Next Generation...
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Channel robust speaker verification via feature mapping
April 6, 2003
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, ICASSP, Vol. II, 6-10 April 2003, pp. II-53 - II-56.
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Summary
In speaker recognition applications, channel variability is a major cause of errors. Techniques in the feature, model and score domains have been applied to mitigate channel effects. In this paper we present a new feature mapping technique that maps feature vectors into a channel independent space. The feature mapping learns mapping parameters from a set of channel-dependent models derived for a channel-dependent models derived from a channel-independent model via MAP adaptation. The technique is developed primarily for speaker verification, but can be applied for feature normalization in speech recognition applications. Results are presented on NIST landline and cellular telephone speech corpora where it is shown that feature mapping provides significant performance improvements over baseline systems and similar performance to Hnorm and Speaker-Model-Synthesis (SMS).
Summary
In speaker recognition applications, channel variability is a major cause of errors. Techniques in the feature, model and score domains have been applied to mitigate channel effects. In this paper we present a new feature mapping technique that maps feature vectors into a channel independent space. The feature mapping learns...
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Conditional pronunciation modeling in speaker detection
April 6, 2003
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, ICASSP, 6-10 April 2003.
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Summary
In this paper, we present a conditional pronunciation modeling method for the speaker detection task that does not rely on acoustic vectors. Aiming at exploiting higher-level information carried by the speech signal, it uses time-aligned streams of phones and phonemes to model a speaker's specific Pronunciation. Our system uses phonemes drawn from a lexicon of pronunciations of words recognized by an automatic speech recognition system to generate the phoneme stream and an open-loop phone recognizer to generate a phone stream. The phoneme and phone streams are aligned at the frame level and conditional probabilities of a phone, given a phoneme, are estimated using co-occurrence counts. A likelihood detector is then applied to these probabilities. Performance is measured using the NIST Extended Data paradigm and the Switchboard-I corpus. Using 8 training conversations for enrollment, a 2.1% equal error rate was achieved. Extensions and alternatives, as well as fusion experiments, are presented and discussed.
Summary
In this paper, we present a conditional pronunciation modeling method for the speaker detection task that does not rely on acoustic vectors. Aiming at exploiting higher-level information carried by the speech signal, it uses time-aligned streams of phones and phonemes to model a speaker's specific Pronunciation. Our system uses phonemes...
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Phonetic speaker recognition using maximum-likelihood binary-decision tree models
April 6, 2003
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, ICASSP, Vol. 4, 6-10 April 2003.
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Summary
Recent work in phonetic speaker recognition has shown that modeling phone sequences using n-grams is a viable and effective approach to speaker recognition, primarily aiming at capturing speaker-dependent pronunciation and also word usage. This paper describes a method involving binary-tree-structured statistical models for extending the phonetic context beyond that of standard n-grams (particularly bigrams) by exploiting statistical dependencies within a longer sequence window without exponentially increasing the model complexity, as is the case with n-grams. Two ways of dealing with data sparsity are also studied, namely, model adaptation and a recursive bottom-up smoothing of symbol distributions. Results obtained under a variety of experimental conditions using the NIST 2001 Speaker Recognition Extended Data Task indicate consistent improvements in equal-error rate performance as compared to standard bigram models. The described approach confirms the relevance of long phonetic context in phonetic speaker recognition and represents an intermediate stage between short phone context and word-level modeling without the need for any lexical knowledge, which suggests its language independence.
Summary
Recent work in phonetic speaker recognition has shown that modeling phone sequences using n-grams is a viable and effective approach to speaker recognition, primarily aiming at capturing speaker-dependent pronunciation and also word usage. This paper describes a method involving binary-tree-structured statistical models for extending the phonetic context beyond that of...
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The SuperSID project : exploiting high-level information for high-accuracy speaker recognition
April 6, 2003
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, ICASSP, Vol. 4, 6-10 April 2003, pp. IV-784 - IV-787.
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R&D area:
Summary
The area of automatic speaker recognition has been dominated by systems using only short-term, low-level acoustic information, such as cepstral features. While these systems have indeed produced very low error rates, they ignore other levels of information beyond low-level acoustics that convey speaker information. Recently published work has shown examples that such high-level information can be used successfully in automatic speaker recognition systems and has the potential to improve accuracy and add robustness. For the 2002 JHU CLSP summer workshop, the SuperSID project was undertaken to exploit these high-level information sources and dramatically increase speaker recognition accuracy on a defined NIST evaluation corpus and task. This paper provides an overview of the structures, data, task, tools, and accomplishments of this project. Wide ranging approaches using pronunciation models, prosodic dynamics, pitch and duration features, phone streams, and conversational interactions were explored and developed. In this paper we show how these novel features and classifiers indeed provide complementary information and can be fused together to drive down the equal error rate on the 2001 NIS extended data task to 0.2% - a 71% relative reduction in error over the previous state of the art.
Summary
The area of automatic speaker recognition has been dominated by systems using only short-term, low-level acoustic information, such as cepstral features. While these systems have indeed produced very low error rates, they ignore other levels of information beyond low-level acoustics that convey speaker information. Recently published work has shown examples...
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