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Automatic detection of influential actors in disinformation networks

Published in:
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., Vol. 118, No. 4, January 2021, e2011216118.

Summary

The weaponization of digital communications and social media to conduct disinformation campaigns at immense scale, speed, and reach presents new challenges to identify and counter hostile influence operations (IO). This paper presents an end-to-end framework to automate detection of disinformation narratives, networks, and influential actors. The framework integrates natural language processing, machine learning, graph analytics, and a novel network causal inference approach to quantify the impact of individual actors in spreading IO narratives. We demonstrate its capability on real-world hostile IO campaigns with Twitter datasets collected during the 2017 French presidential elections, and known IO accounts disclosed by Twitter. Our system detects IO accounts with 96% precision, 79% recall, and 96% area-under-the-PR-curve, maps out salient network communities, and discovers high-impact accounts that escape the lens of traditional impact statistics based on activity counts and network centrality. Results are corroborated with independent sources of known IO accounts from U.S. Congressional reports, investigative journalism, and IO datasets provided by Twitter.
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Summary

The weaponization of digital communications and social media to conduct disinformation campaigns at immense scale, speed, and reach presents new challenges to identify and counter hostile influence operations (IO). This paper presents an end-to-end framework to automate detection of disinformation narratives, networks, and influential actors. The framework integrates natural language...

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GraphChallenge.org triangle counting performance [e-print]

Summary

The rise of graph analytic systems has created a need for new ways to measure and compare the capabilities of graph processing systems. The MIT/Amazon/IEEE Graph Challenge has been developed to provide a well-defined community venue for stimulating research and highlighting innovations in graph analysis software, hardware, algorithms, and systems. GraphChallenge.org provides a wide range of preparsed graph data sets, graph generators, mathematically defined graph algorithms, example serial implementations in a variety of languages, and specific metrics for measuring performance. The triangle counting component of GraphChallenge.org tests the performance of graph processing systems to count all the triangles in a graph and exercises key graph operations found in many graph algorithms. In 2017, 2018, and 2019 many triangle counting submissions were received from a wide range of authors and organizations. This paper presents a performance analysis of the best performers of these submissions. These submissions show that their state-of-the-art triangle counting execution time, Ttri, is a strong function of the number of edges in the graph, Ne, which improved significantly from 2017 (Ttri \approx (Ne/10^8)^4=3) to 2018 (Ttri \approx Ne/10^9) and remained comparable from 2018 to 2019. Graph Challenge provides a clear picture of current graph analysis systems and underscores the need for new innovations to achieve high performance on very large graphs
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Summary

The rise of graph analytic systems has created a need for new ways to measure and compare the capabilities of graph processing systems. The MIT/Amazon/IEEE Graph Challenge has been developed to provide a well-defined community venue for stimulating research and highlighting innovations in graph analysis software, hardware, algorithms, and systems...

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GraphChallenge.org: raising the bar on graph analytic performance

Summary

The rise of graph analytic systems has created a need for new ways to measure and compare the capabilities of graph processing systems. The MIT/Amazon/IEEE Graph Challenge has been developed to provide a well-defined community venue for stimulating research and highlighting innovations in graph analysis software, hardware, algorithms, and systems. GraphChallenge.org provides a wide range of preparsed graph data sets, graph generators, mathematically defined graph algorithms, example serial implementations in a variety of languages, and specific metrics for measuring performance. Graph Challenge 2017 received 22 submissions by 111 authors from 36 organizations. The submissions highlighted graph analytic innovations in hardware, software, algorithms, systems, and visualization. These submissions produced many comparable performance measurements that can be used for assessing the current state of the art of the field. There were numerous submissions that implemented the triangle counting challenge and resulted in over 350 distinct measurements. Analysis of these submissions show that their execution time is a strong function of the number of edges in the graph, Ne, and is typically proportional to N4=3 e for large values of Ne. Combining the model fits of the submissions presents a picture of the current state of the art of graph analysis, which is typically 108 edges processed per second for graphs with 108 edges. These results are 30 times faster than serial implementations commonly used by many graph analysts and underscore the importance of making these performance benefits available to the broader community. Graph Challenge provides a clear picture of current graph analysis systems and underscores the need for new innovations to achieve high performance on very large graphs.
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Summary

The rise of graph analytic systems has created a need for new ways to measure and compare the capabilities of graph processing systems. The MIT/Amazon/IEEE Graph Challenge has been developed to provide a well-defined community venue for stimulating research and highlighting innovations in graph analysis software, hardware, algorithms, and systems...

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Influence estimation on social media networks using causal inference

Published in:
Proc. IEEE Statistical Signal Processing (SSP) Workshop, 10-13 June 2018.

Summary

Estimating influence on social media networks is an important practical and theoretical problem, especially because this new medium is widely exploited as a platform for disinformation and propaganda. This paper introduces a novel approach to influence estimation on social media networks and applies it to the real-world problem of characterizing active influence operations on Twitter during the 2017 French presidential elections. The new influence estimation approach attributes impact by accounting for narrative propagation over the network using a network causal inference framework applied to data arising from graph sampling and filtering. This causal framework infers the difference in outcome as a function of exposure, in contrast to existing approaches that attribute impact to activity volume or topological features, which do not explicitly measure nor necessarily indicate actual network influence. Cramér-Rao estimation bounds are derived for parameter estimation as a step in the causal analysis, and used to achieve geometrical insight on the causal inference problem. The ability to infer high causal influence is demonstrated on real-world social media accounts that are later independently confirmed to be either directly affiliated or correlated with foreign influence operations using evidence supplied by the U.S. Congress and journalistic reports.
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Summary

Estimating influence on social media networks is an important practical and theoretical problem, especially because this new medium is widely exploited as a platform for disinformation and propaganda. This paper introduces a novel approach to influence estimation on social media networks and applies it to the real-world problem of characterizing...

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Hybrid mixed-membership blockmodel for inference on realistic network interactions

Published in:
IEEE Trans. Netw. Sci. Eng., Vol. 6, No. 3, July-Sept. 2019.

Summary

This work proposes novel hybrid mixed-membership blockmodels (HMMB) that integrate three canonical network models to capture the characteristics of real-world interactions: community structure with mixed-membership, power-law-distributed node degrees, and sparsity. This hybrid model provides the capacity needed for realism, enabling control and inference on individual attributes of interest such as mixed-membership and popularity. A rigorous inference procedure is developed for estimating the parameters of this model through iterative Bayesian updates, with targeted initialization to improve identifiability. For the estimation of mixed-membership parameters, the Cramer-Rao bound is derived by quantifying the information content in terms of the Fisher information matrix. The effectiveness of the proposed inference is demonstrated in simulations where the estimates achieve covariances close to the Cramer-Rao bound while maintaining good truth coverage. We illustrate the utility of the proposed model and inference procedure in the application of detecting a community from a few cue nodes, where success depends on accurately estimating the mixed-memberships. Performance evaluations on both simulated and real-world data show that inference with HMMB is able to recover mixed-memberships in the presence of challenging community overlap, leading to significantly improved detection performance over algorithms based on network modularity and simpler models.
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Summary

This work proposes novel hybrid mixed-membership blockmodels (HMMB) that integrate three canonical network models to capture the characteristics of real-world interactions: community structure with mixed-membership, power-law-distributed node degrees, and sparsity. This hybrid model provides the capacity needed for realism, enabling control and inference on individual attributes of interest such as...

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Streaming graph challenge: stochastic block partition

Summary

An important objective for analyzing real-world graphs is to achieve scalable performance on large, streaming graphs. A challenging and relevant example is the graph partition problem. As a combinatorial problem, graph partition is NP-hard, but existing relaxation methods provide reasonable approximate solutions that can be scaled for large graphs. Competitive benchmarks and challenges have proven to be an effective means to advance state-of-the-art performance and foster community collaboration. This paper describes a graph partition challenge with a baseline partition algorithm of sub-quadratic complexity. The algorithm employs rigorous Bayesian inferential methods based on a statistical model that captures characteristics of the real-world graphs. This strong foundation enables the algorithm to address limitations of well-known graph partition approaches such as modularity maximization. This paper describes various aspects of the challenge including: (1) the data sets and streaming graph generator, (2) the baseline partition algorithm with pseudocode, (3) an argument for the correctness of parallelizing the Bayesian inference, (4) different parallel computation strategies such as node-based parallelism and matrix-based parallelism, (5) evaluation metrics for partition correctness and computational requirements, (6) preliminary timing of a Python-based demonstration code and the open source C++ code, and (7) considerations for partitioning the graph in streaming fashion. Data sets and source code for the algorithm as well as metrics, with detailed documentation are available at GraphChallenge.org.
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Summary

An important objective for analyzing real-world graphs is to achieve scalable performance on large, streaming graphs. A challenging and relevant example is the graph partition problem. As a combinatorial problem, graph partition is NP-hard, but existing relaxation methods provide reasonable approximate solutions that can be scaled for large graphs. Competitive...

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Static graph challenge: subgraph isomorphism

Summary

The rise of graph analytic systems has created a need for ways to measure and compare the capabilities of these systems. Graph analytics present unique scalability difficulties. The machine learning, high performance computing, and visual analytics communities have wrestled with these difficulties for decades and developed methodologies for creating challenges to move these communities forward. The proposed Subgraph Isomorphism Graph Challenge draws upon prior challenges from machine learning, high performance computing, and visual analytics to create a graph challenge that is reflective of many real-world graph analytics processing systems. The Subgraph Isomorphism Graph Challenge is a holistic specification with multiple integrated kernels that can be run together or independently. Each kernel is well defined mathematically and can be implemented in any programming environment. Subgraph isomorphism is amenable to both vertex-centric implementations and array-based implementations (e.g., using the Graph-BLAS.org standard). The computations are simple enough that performance predictions can be made based on simple computing hardware models. The surrounding kernels provide the context for each kernel that allows rigorous definition of both the input and the output for each kernel. Furthermore, since the proposed graph challenge is scalable in both problem size and hardware, it can be used to measure and quantitatively compare a wide range of present day and future systems. Serial implementations in C++, Python, Python with Pandas, Matlab, Octave, and Julia have been implemented and their single threaded performance have been measured. Specifications, data, and software are publicly available at GraphChallenge.org.
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Summary

The rise of graph analytic systems has created a need for ways to measure and compare the capabilities of these systems. Graph analytics present unique scalability difficulties. The machine learning, high performance computing, and visual analytics communities have wrestled with these difficulties for decades and developed methodologies for creating challenges...

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Intersection and convex combination in multi-source spectral planted cluster detection

Published in:
IEEE Global Conf. on Signal and Information Processing, GlobalSIP, 7-9 December 2016.

Summary

Planted cluster detection is an important form of signal detection when the data are in the form of a graph. When there are multiple graphs representing multiple connection types, the method of aggregation can have significant impact on the results of a detection algorithm. This paper addresses the tradeoff between two possible aggregation methods: convex combination and intersection. For a spectral detection method, convex combination dominates when the cluster is relatively sparse in at least one graph, while the intersection method dominates in cases where it is dense across graphs. Experimental results confirm the theory. We consider the context of adversarial cluster placement, and determine how an adversary would distribute connections among the graphs to best avoid detection.
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Summary

Planted cluster detection is an important form of signal detection when the data are in the form of a graph. When there are multiple graphs representing multiple connection types, the method of aggregation can have significant impact on the results of a detection algorithm. This paper addresses the tradeoff between...

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Improved hidden clique detection by optimal linear fusion of multiple adjacency matrices

Published in:
2015 Asilomar Conf. on Signals, Systems and Computers, 8-11 November 2015.

Summary

Graph fusion has emerged as a promising research area for addressing challenges associated with noisy, uncertain, multi-source data. While many ad-hoc graph fusion techniques exist in the current literature, an analytical approach for analyzing the fundamentals of the graph fusion problem is lacking. We consider the setting where we are given multiple Erdos-Renyi modeled adjacency matrices containing a common hidden or planted clique. The objective is to combine them linearly so that the principal eigenvectors of the resulting matrix best reveal the vertices associated with the clique. We utilize recent results from random matrix theory to derive the optimal weighting coefficients and use these insights to develop a data-driven fusion algorithm. We demonstrate the improved performance of the algorithm relative to other simple heuristics.
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Summary

Graph fusion has emerged as a promising research area for addressing challenges associated with noisy, uncertain, multi-source data. While many ad-hoc graph fusion techniques exist in the current literature, an analytical approach for analyzing the fundamentals of the graph fusion problem is lacking. We consider the setting where we are...

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Residuals-based subgraph detection with cue vertices

Published in:
2015 Asilomar Conf. on Signals, Systems and Computers, 8-11 November 2015.

Summary

A common problem in modern graph analysis is the detection of communities, an example of which is the detection of a single anomalously dense subgraph. Recent results have demonstrated a fundamental limit for this problem when using spectral analysis of modularity. In this paper, we demonstrate the implication of these results on subgraph detection when a cue vertex is provided, indicating one of the vertices in the community of interest. Several recent algorithms for local community detection are applied in this context, and we compare their empirical performance to that of the simple method used to derive the theoretical detection limits.
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Summary

A common problem in modern graph analysis is the detection of communities, an example of which is the detection of a single anomalously dense subgraph. Recent results have demonstrated a fundamental limit for this problem when using spectral analysis of modularity. In this paper, we demonstrate the implication of these...

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