Publications
A Bayesian approach to aircraft encounter modeling
August 18, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conf., 18-21 August 2008.
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Summary
Aircraft encounter models can be used in a variety of analyses, including collision avoidance system safety assessment, sensor design trade studies, and visual acquisition analysis. This paper presents an approach to airspace encounter model construction based on Markov models estimated from radar data. We use Bayesian networks to represent the distribution over initial states and dynamic Bayesian networks to represent transition probabilities. We apply Bayesian statistical techniques to identify the relationships between the variables in the model to best leverage a large volume of raw aircraft track data obtained from more than 130 radars across the United States.
Summary
Aircraft encounter models can be used in a variety of analyses, including collision avoidance system safety assessment, sensor design trade studies, and visual acquisition analysis. This paper presents an approach to airspace encounter model construction based on Markov models estimated from radar data. We use Bayesian networks to represent the...
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Applications of a macroscopic model for en route sector capacity
August 18, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conf. and Exhibit, 18-21 August 2008.
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Summary
Airspace capacity estimates are important both for airspace design and for operational air traffic management. Considerable effort has gone into understanding the complexity factors that reduce sector capacity by increasing controller workload. Yet no analytical means is available for accurately estimating the maximum capacity of an en route sector. The Monitor Alert Parameter (MAP) values that determine the operational traffic limit of en route sectors in the United States account only for workload from inter-sector coordination tasks. We propose a more complete sector capacity model that also accounts for workload from conflict avoidance and recurring tasks. We use mean closing speeds and airspace separation standards to estimate aircraft conflict rates. We estimate the mean controller service times for all three task types by fitting the model against observed peak traffic counts for hundreds of en route airspace volumes in the Northeastern United States. This macroscopic approach provides numerical capacity predictions that closely bound peak observed traffic densities for those airspace volumes. This paper reviews recent efforts to improve the accuracy of the bound by replacing certain global parameters with measured data from individual sectors. It also compares the model capacity with MAP values for sectors in the New York Center. It concludes by illustrating the use of the model to predict the capacity benefits of proposed technological and operational improvements to the air traffic management system.
Summary
Airspace capacity estimates are important both for airspace design and for operational air traffic management. Considerable effort has gone into understanding the complexity factors that reduce sector capacity by increasing controller workload. Yet no analytical means is available for accurately estimating the maximum capacity of an en route sector. The...
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Comparing convective weather avoidance models and aircraft-based data
August 4, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
89th ARAM Special Symp., 4 August 2008.
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The Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), developed in collaboration with NASA, translates convective weather information into a Weather Avoidance Field (WAF), to determine if pilots will route around convective regions. The WAF provides an estimate of the probability of pilot deviation around convective weather in en route airspace as a function of time, horizontal location, and flight altitude [1][2]. The results of the WAF can used to create reroutes around regions of convective weather where pilots are more likely to deviate. If reliable WAF information is provided to the cockpit and ground, pilot decisions may become more predictable, simplifying the task of air traffic control in convective weather. The improvement and validation of CWAM requires inference of pilot intent from flight trajectory data, which is challenging. The process currently involves laborious human review of the results of automated deviation detection algorithms. Both previous CWAM studies and a recent validation study [3] illustrate the difficulties and limitations of attempting to infer pilot intent from flight trajectory data. Furthermore, observed flight tracks may not correctly represent pilot preference. In some instances, pilots may have penetrated airspace that they would rather have avoided or they may have avoided airspace that was easily passable. In order to improve and assess the accuracy of the WAF, it is desirable to compare WAF predictions of pilot intent with direct evidence of the airborne experience during weather encounters in en route airspace, such as normal acceleration. To achieve this, a series of flights using a research aircraft was conducted. In the summer of 2008, four research flights (three on 17 July and one on 14 August) were flown in and around convective activity in the upper Midwestern United States to gather aircraft data that could be correlated to the WAF and other remotely-sensed weather data. The aircraft, a Rockwell Sabreliner Model 50 research aircraft (similar to the Sabreliner Model 40 production model) owned by Rockwell-Collins, flew through and around convective activity while recording on-board accelerations for comparison to the WAF deviation probabilities encountered along the flight trajectory. Aircraft state data, on-board weather radar images, video, photographs and pilot narrative from the cockpit were also collected. This paper briefly describes the CWAM model and WAF. Description of the data collection methodology is then presented. Following that section are descriptions of the flights comparing radar data from the flight deck with ground-based weather radar and the WAF. Visual observations and pilot narrative from the flight deck are also presented. Next, the normal acceleration data from on-board accelerometer data are compared with WAF. Finally, conclusions and suggestions for further study are presented.
Summary
The Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), developed in collaboration with NASA, translates convective weather information into a Weather Avoidance Field (WAF), to determine if pilots will route around convective regions. The WAF provides an estimate of the probability of pilot deviation around convective weather in en route airspace as a...
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Measuring the uncertainty of weather forecasts specific to air traffic management operations
August 4, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
89th ARAM Special Symp., 4 August 2008.
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In this paper, we develop a novel way to measure the accuracy of weather forecasts based upon the impact on air traffic flows. This method uses new techniques developed as part of the CWAM that consider the complicated interaction between pilots, air traffic controllers and weather. This technique, known as the blockage model (Martin et al., 2006), differentiates between minor deviations performed by pilots around convective weather and their larger deviations due to fully blocked air routes that require air traffic control interaction. This blockage model is being used by the automated Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) to predict route blockage for NYC departures. RAPT integrates the Corridor Integrated Weather Systems (CIWS) deterministic 0-2 hour forecasts of precipitation and echo tops into route specific forecasts of impact on air traffic in the congested east coast corridor. Applying the blockage model to the entire CIWS weather domain as a metric for scoring the performance of the forecast algorithms is shown to be an excellent approach for measuring the adequacy of the forecast in predicting the impact of the convective weather on air traffic operations.
Summary
In this paper, we develop a novel way to measure the accuracy of weather forecasts based upon the impact on air traffic flows. This method uses new techniques developed as part of the CWAM that consider the complicated interaction between pilots, air traffic controllers and weather. This technique, known as...
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Encounter modeling for sense and avoid deployment
May 5, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
2008 Integrated Communications, Navigation, and Surveillence Conf., 5-7 May 2008.
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Summary
Integrating unmanned aircraft into civil airspace requires the development and certification of systems for sensing and avoiding other aircraft. Because such systems are typically very complex and a high-level of safety must be maintained, rigorous analysis is required before they can be certified for operational use. As part of the certification process, collision avoidance systems need to be evaluated across millions of randomly generated close encounters that are representative of actual operations. New encounter models are under development that capture changes that have occurred in U.S. airspace since earlier models were developed in the 1980s and 1990s. These models capture the characteristics of small, General Aviation aircraft that may not be receiving Air Traffic Control services as well as typically larger aircraft that are squawking a discrete transponder code. Both models allow dynamic changes in airspeed, vertical rates, and turn rates in a way that was not possible previously. This paper describes the process used to construct the encounter models, how the models may be used in the development of sense-and-avoid systems for unmanned aircraft, and their application in an analysis of an electro-optical system for collision avoidance.
Summary
Integrating unmanned aircraft into civil airspace requires the development and certification of systems for sensing and avoiding other aircraft. Because such systems are typically very complex and a high-level of safety must be maintained, rigorous analysis is required before they can be certified for operational use. As part of the...
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Elementary surveillance (ELS) and enhanced surveillance (EHS) validation via Mode S secondary radar surveillance
April 25, 2008
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-337
Summary
Several applications of the Mode S data link are currently being implemented and equipage requirements have been issued in countries around the world. Elementary surveillance (ELS) and enhanced surveillance (EHS) applications have been mandated in Europe with full equipage of all aircraft in the airspace required by 2009. Exemptions to the ELS requirement include aircraft that will be out of service by 31 December 2009, and aircraft undergoing flight-testing, delivery, or transit into or out of maintenance bases. Transport type aircraft (defined as having a maximum take-off weight in excess of 250 knots) are to be equipped to support ELS and EHS. Exemptions to the requirements for EHS include those listed above for ELS and: a- fighter and training aircraft; b- rotary-wing aircraft; c- existing/older transport type aircraft undergoing avionics upgrades which will then support ELS/EHS; and d- aircraft types granted special exemptions (e.g., B1-B, B2-A, and B-52H bombers). [not complete]
Summary
Several applications of the Mode S data link are currently being implemented and equipage requirements have been issued in countries around the world. Elementary surveillance (ELS) and enhanced surveillance (EHS) applications have been mandated in Europe with full equipage of all aircraft in the airspace required by 2009. Exemptions to...
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Cloud-to-ground lightning as a proxy for nowcasts of VIL and echo tops
January 20, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
13th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 20-24 January 2008.
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The primary fields that provide weather situational awareness in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) are radar-derived vertically-integrated liquid (VIL) and echo top height (ET). In situations of reduced or non-existent radar coverage, such as over the oceans, in mountainous terrain or during periods of radar outages, the radar VIL and ET fields are severely compromised or even absent. In these situations, the lightning data are often unaffected and fully available to use as a proxy for the radar fields in convective weather nowcasts. The purpose of this study is to develop the capability to utilize cloud-to-ground lightning strike data as a proxy for radar VIL and echo tops (ET) in the CIWS. The datasets used in this study are the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and the 1 km/5min radar VIL and ET mosaics produced at MIT LL. To capture the synoptic variability of the lightning-VIL and lightning-ET relationships over the CIWS domain, atmospheric variables from the NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model and the Space-time Mesoscale Analysis System (STMAS) are utilized with the lightning data in a statistical regression framework. Once spatially and temporally coherent regions of VIL and ET derived from the lightning are produced, the potential exists for tracking these regions and providing accurate short-term forecasting of convective hazards.
Summary
The primary fields that provide weather situational awareness in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) are radar-derived vertically-integrated liquid (VIL) and echo top height (ET). In situations of reduced or non-existent radar coverage, such as over the oceans, in mountainous terrain or during periods of radar outages, the radar VIL...
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Comparative analysis of terminal wind-shear detection systems
January 20, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
13th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 20-24 January 2008.
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Low-level wind shear, especially a microburst, is very hazardous to aircraft departing or approaching an airport. The danger became especially clear in a series of fatal commercial airliner accidents in the 1970s and 1980s at U.S. airports. In response, the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) developed and deployed three ground-based low-altitude wind-shear detection systems: the Low Altitude Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS) (Wilson and Gramzow 1991), the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) (Michelson et al. 1990), and the Airport Surveillance Radar Weather Systems Processor (ASR-9 WSP) (Weber and Stone 1995). Since the deployment of these sensors, commercial aircraft wind-shear accidents have dropped to near zero in the U.S. This dramatic decrease in accidents caused by wind shear appears to confirm the safety benefits provided by these detection systems. In addition, the broad area measurement capability of the TDWR and WSP provides ancillary delay reduction benefits, for example, by forecasting airport wind shifts that may require runway reconfiguration. The current deployment strategy for these various windshear detection systems is justified by an earlier integrated wind-shear systems cost-benefit analysis (Martin Marietta 1994). Since that time, conditions in the national airspace system (NAS) have evolved, such as the installation of onboard predictive wind-shear detection systems in an increasing number of aircraft, improved pilot training for wind-shear hazard identification, avoidance, and recovery, and further integration of observed wind-shear data into terminal weather systems. Given the tight fiscal environment at the FAA in recent years, the cost of maintaining the wind-shear detection systems has also become an issue. All systems require periodic service life extension programs (SLEPs). In light of these developments, the FAA has tasked MIT Lincoln Laboratory to provide an updated cost-benefit study on their terminal wind-shear detection systems. One of the key factors in estimating the benefits of a terminal wind-shear detection system is its performance. Thus, it is necessary to quantify the wind-shear detection probability for each sensor, preferably on an airport-by-airport basis. To consider sensors that are not yet deployed, a model must be developed that takes into account the various effects that factor into the detection probability. We have developed such a model. The focus of this paper is on this model and the results obtained with it.
Summary
Low-level wind shear, especially a microburst, is very hazardous to aircraft departing or approaching an airport. The danger became especially clear in a series of fatal commercial airliner accidents in the 1970s and 1980s at U.S. airports. In response, the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) developed and deployed three ground-based low-altitude...
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Modeling convective weather avoidance in enroute airspace
January 20, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
13th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 20-24 January 2008.
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It is generally agreed that effective management of convective weather in congested airspace requires decision support tools that translate the weather products and forecasts into forecasts of ATC impacts and then use those ATC impact forecasts to suggest air traffic management strategies. In future trajectory-based operations, it will be necessary to automatically generate flight trajectories through or around convective weather that pilots will find acceptable. A critical first step, needed in both today's air traffic management environment and in the highly automated systems of the future, is a validated model for airspace that pilots will seek to avoid. At the 12th Conference on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology (Atlanta, 2006), we reported on an initial Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM1) (DeLaura and Evans; 2006). The CWAM1 outputs are three dimensional deterministic and probabilistic weather avoidance fields (WAFs). CWAM1 used Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) VIL and echo top fields and National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data to predict aircraft deviations and penetration. CWAM1 was developed using more than 500 aircraft-convective weather encounters in the Indianapolis Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZID ARTCC) airspace. CWAM1 gave the greatest weight to the difference between flight altitude and the 18 dbZ radar echo top with precipitation intensity playing a secondary role. The deviation prediction error rate in CWAM1 was approximately 25%. This paper presents a new model (CWAM2), based on the analysis of trajectories from several ARTCCs [Indianapolis (ZID), Cleveland (ZOB) and meteorological deviation predictors. Additional weather factors that are considered include vertical storm structure (upper level reflectivity and the height of the VIL centroid derived from the NSSL 3D reflectivity mosaic), vertical and horizontal storm growth, the spatial variation in VIL and echo top fields and storm motion.
Summary
It is generally agreed that effective management of convective weather in congested airspace requires decision support tools that translate the weather products and forecasts into forecasts of ATC impacts and then use those ATC impact forecasts to suggest air traffic management strategies. In future trajectory-based operations, it will be necessary...
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A wind forecast algorithm to support Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD)
January 20, 2008
Conference Paper
Published in:
13th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 20-24 January 2008.
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Summary
Turbulence associated with wake vortices generated by arriving and departing aircraft poses a potential safety risk to other nearby aircraft, and as such this potential risk may apply to aircraft operating on Closely Spaced Parallel Runways (CSPRs). Aircraft separation standards are imposed to mitigate this potential risk. The FAA and NASA are investigating application of wind-dependent procedures for improved departure operations that would safely reduce spacing restrictions to allow increased airport operating capacity. These procedures are referred to collectively as Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD). An important component of WTMD is a Wind Forecast Algorithm (WFA) developed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory. The algorithm is designed to predict when runway crosswind conditions will remain persistently favorable to preclude transport of aircraft departure wakes into the path of aircraft on parallel runways (Figure 1). The algorithm has two distinct components for predicting the winds at the surface (33 ft) and aloft up to 1000 ft (the altitude by which an alternate form of separation would be applied by Air Traffic Control to aircraft departing the parallel runways, typically 15 degree or greater divergence in aircraft paths). The surface component forecast applies a statistical approach using recent observations of winds from 1-minute ASOS observations. The winds-aloft component relies on the 2 to 4 hour wind forecasts from NCEP's Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model. The baseline version of the algorithm was developed and tested using data from St. Louis Lambert International Airport (STL). Algorithm performance was evaluated using 1-minute ASOS observations and crosswind component measurements taken from a dedicated Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) system. The algorithm was also demonstrated and evaluated at Houston George Bush International Airport (IAH). Use of the WFA is planned for 8 other airports deemed likely to derive significant benefit from WTMD procedures. The operational concept of WTMD for use by Air Traffic Control (ATC) includes additional decision levels beyond the WFA forecast. These include a check for VFR ceiling and visibility conditions, and final enablement by a human controller. More details concerning WTMD can be found in Lang et al. (2005) and Lang et al. (2007). A more complete description of the WFA is given in Robasky and Clark (2008). The early history of WFA development is detailed in Cole and Winkler (2004).
Summary
Turbulence associated with wake vortices generated by arriving and departing aircraft poses a potential safety risk to other nearby aircraft, and as such this potential risk may apply to aircraft operating on Closely Spaced Parallel Runways (CSPRs). Aircraft separation standards are imposed to mitigate this potential risk. The FAA and...
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