Publications
The Terminal Convective Weather Forecast demonstration at the DFW International Airport
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
Published in:
8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (ARAM), 10-15 January 1999.
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Summary
The FAA Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT) is tasked with developing products for convective weather forecasts for aviation users. The overall product development is a collaborative effort between scientists from MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). As part of the PDT, MIT/LL is being funded to develop algorithms for accurately forecasting the location of strong precipitation in and around airport terminal areas. We began by consulting with air traffic personnel and commercial airline dispatchers to determine the needs of aviation users. Users indicated that convective weather, particularly line storms, caused the most consistent problems for managing air traffic. These storms are by far the major cause of aircraft delays and diversions. MIT/LL has already developed the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) which combines a variety of near-airport sensors to provide a wide range of current weather information to aviation users. Raytheon is currently building the production ITWS system which will be deployed at 45 major airports by 2003. The initial capability ITWS already provides some convective weather predictive capabilities in the form of storm motion vectors and "Storm Extrapolated Positions" (SEP; leading edge of storm at 10 and 20 minutes). But ITWS users indicated a desire for enhanced forecasts which showed the full spatial extent of the weather, how the weather would change (grow or decay) and extended forecast time periods to at least out one hour. Our approach is to develop an algorithm which may be added as a future product improvement to the ITWS system. Previous attempts at producing forecasts have focused on convective initiation and building from short-term (20-30 min) cell forecasts. Our "reverse time" approach of attacking longer time scale (60 min) features first is an outgrowth of addressing user needs and the discovery of improved tracking techniques for large scale precipitation features. The "Growth and Decay Tracker" developed by MIT/LL (Wolfson et.al., 1999) allows us to generate accurate short and long term forecasts of large scale precipitation features. This paper details the Terminal Convective Weather Forecast (TCWF) demonstration ongoing at Dallas/Ft. Worth International Airport (DFW) and discusses the underlying algorithm being developed.
Summary
The FAA Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT) is tasked with developing products for convective weather forecasts for aviation users. The overall product development is a collaborative effort between scientists from MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). As...
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Nowcasting requirements for the aircraft vortex spacing system (AVOSS)
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
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8th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 10-15 Jan. 1999, pp. 340-344.
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Aircraft wake vortices are counter-rotating tubes of air that are generated from aircraft as a consequence of the lift on the aircraft. The safety concern of wake vortices, particularly when lighter aircraft are following heavy planes, has caused the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to enact minimum separation requirements during the arrival phase of flight. These separation standards are imposed at the arrival threshold during Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and are a significant constraint on arrival capacity at the largest U.S. airports. Any movement toward increasing air traffic efficiency, such as concepts toward free-flight, must address increasing runway capacity if they are to be fully effective. Decades of past wake vortex measurements clearly show that current wake vortex separations are overconservative in many weather conditions, and that adapting the separations to the current weather state could safely reduce these separations...This paper describes the known meteorological influences on vortex behavior and gives an overview of AVOSS. Airport climatology is studied to discuss the prevalence of conditions that are conducive to capacity increases with AVOSS technology. Finally, additional constraints on AVOSS nowcasts are discussed.
Summary
Aircraft wake vortices are counter-rotating tubes of air that are generated from aircraft as a consequence of the lift on the aircraft. The safety concern of wake vortices, particularly when lighter aircraft are following heavy planes, has caused the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to enact minimum separation requirements during the...
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Optimizing the ITWS algorithm designed to remove anomalous propagation ground clutter from the ASR-9 precipitation product
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
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8th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 10-15 January 1999.
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A key product within the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Initial Operating Capability (IOC) product suite removes anomalous propagation (AP) ground clutter from the ASR-9 precipitation product. This has been identified as a critical component of ITWS due to the frequent occurrence of AP when storms or outflows move over an ASR-9. Editing is accomplished by comparing the raw ASR-9 weather data to composite maps generated by the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) and the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR). An editing template, containing regions of AP, is created based on the ASR-9 data collected at the middle of the composite volume scan to minimize the difference in update rates. The template is used to edit the ASR-9 scan immediately after the composite map and all subsequent scans until a new composite map is received. This algorithm has been shown to perform quite well, especially if the weather and AP returns are not co-located. During the 1994 Demonstration and Validation Operational Test and Evaluation in Memphis (MEM) and Orlando (MCO), the probability of editing AP (PEAP) in the absence of weather was 0.97 for level 2 and greater returns (Klingle-Wilson, 1995). The probability of editing weather (PEW) for those cases with weather only was quite low, i.e., 0.01. In order to minimize the removal of weather returns in those cases where the AP and weather are located in close proximity, the editing thresholds are quite conservative. This is reflected by the 1994 results which show a PEAP of 0.81 and a PEW of 0.02 for this class of event. Besides the conservative thresholds, another area of concern is the fact that the AP regions can expand or increase in intensity after the AP editing template is created. This rapid variation frequently occurs with convectively generated AP and can cause the performance of the algorithm to decrease with time until a new template is created. In this study, we will examine the algorithm failure mechanisms in detail to identify possible site-adaptable parameter changes that can be used to improve the performance for the mixed weather/AP events. This is especially germane since the parameter set was not re-evaluated after the TDWR composite map was incorporated in 1995. In the critical region over the airport during hazardous weather conditions, this radar updates more frequently than the NEXRAD. Since the parameters were designed to account for the NEXRAD volume update rate, they are probably too conservative for the current algorithm (which uses both composite maps).
Summary
A key product within the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Initial Operating Capability (IOC) product suite removes anomalous propagation (AP) ground clutter from the ASR-9 precipitation product. This has been identified as a critical component of ITWS due to the frequent occurrence of AP when storms or outflows move over...
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Thunderstorm induced gravity waves as a potential hazard to commercial aircraft
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
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8th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, ARAM, 10-15 January 1999.
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Under certain atmospheric conditions, thunderstorm development can induce a phenomenon known as gravity waves (i.e., buoyancy or density waves). These waves are characterized by alternating regions of convergence and divergence over a relatively short distance. Such aerodynamic shear can become hazardous to air traffic if the shear contained within the waves surpasses the threshold for air traffic safety. Gravity waves are particularly hazardous because they develop in seemingly benign weather surrounding the parent thunderstorm and in many cases are not associated with any visual storm feature. Several cases have been studied in which commercial aircraft have encountered gravity waves and have been adversely affected by their encounters. The purpose of this study is to show how gravity waves can have a detrimental effect on aircraft in flight, how gravity waves can be detected, and that need for a detection algorithm exists. With the development of the National Weather Service's Next Generation Radar (WSR–88D NEXRAD) and the Federal Aviation Administration's Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), the ability to detect gravity waves exists near many of America's major airports. Since gravity waves are a low–level phenomenon (generally below 2 km), their presence should be of interest to aircraft in the takeoff and landing stages of flight. During operations at Lincoln Laboratory's Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) prototype field site in Dallas, there have been at least two incidents in which commercial aircraft experienced wind shear of at least 40 knots on takeoff, possibly caused by single or multiple gravity wave bands. This study will look at 57 cases of gravity wave formation within the terminal areas of Dallas–Ft. Worth International, Memphis International, and Orlando International airports. Statistics will be compiled to determine the frequency and severity of the gravity waves as well as their duration. The study will include Pilot Reports (PIREPS) from a few of these cases in which aircraft experienced wind shear due to suspected encounters with gravity waves. It is the hope of the author that this study will lead to the development of a detection algorithm that will increase the safety of America's commercial air traffic.
Summary
Under certain atmospheric conditions, thunderstorm development can induce a phenomenon known as gravity waves (i.e., buoyancy or density waves). These waves are characterized by alternating regions of convergence and divergence over a relatively short distance. Such aerodynamic shear can become hazardous to air traffic if the shear contained within the...
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The growth and decay storm tracker
January 10, 1999
Conference Paper
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Proc. Eighth Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 10-15 Jan. 1999, pp. 58-62.
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An elliptical filter/tracker capable of accounting for systematic growth and delay, designated the Growth and Decay Storm Tracker, has been developed and tested. Its performance depends on the size and shape of the filter, the performance of the cross-correlation tracker, the time interval between successive scans, the forecast lead time, and the type of storm being tracked.
Summary
An elliptical filter/tracker capable of accounting for systematic growth and delay, designated the Growth and Decay Storm Tracker, has been developed and tested. Its performance depends on the size and shape of the filter, the performance of the cross-correlation tracker, the time interval between successive scans, the forecast lead time...
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TCAS II use of ADS-B surveillance data through hybrid surveillance
January 1, 1999
Journal Article
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Air Traffic Control Q., Vol. 7, No. 2, 1999, pp. 109-121.
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This paper describes a technique that enables TCAS II to use passive surveillance data obtained via extended squitter, an implementation of automatic dependent surveillance broadcast (ADS-B). The technique, known as hybrid surveillance, is based upon the use of TCAS active surveillance to perform validation of the reported ADS-B position at track acquisition. Aircraft that pass initial validation are maintained on passive surveillance until they become a near threat. At that time, TCAS begins regular active surveillance and thus uses its current surveillance techniques for traffic and resolution advisories. In this way, TCAS is able to use passive extended squitter data while retaining its role as an independent monitor. Simulation results show that the use of passive information for non-threatening aircraft results in a significant decrease in TCAS interrogation rate. This enables TCAS to delay or avoid the range reduction that is now required in order for TCAS to remain within its interference budget in high traffic density airspace. Maintaining TCAS operating range in high density air-space enhances TCAS ability to support situational awareness for the flight crew.
Summary
This paper describes a technique that enables TCAS II to use passive surveillance data obtained via extended squitter, an implementation of automatic dependent surveillance broadcast (ADS-B). The technique, known as hybrid surveillance, is based upon the use of TCAS active surveillance to perform validation of the reported ADS-B position at...
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Development of improved TCAS II surveillance and interference limiting functions
January 1, 1999
Journal Article
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Air Traffic Control Q., Vol. 7, No. 1, 1999, pp. 19-46.
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This paper describes the development and validation of improved TCAS II intruder surveillance tracking and interference limiting algorithms. Improvements in interference limiting were prompted by the FAA Spectrum Management Office and by international aviation administrations in order to further reduce interference to ground-based air traffic control surveillance by TCAS II. Improvements in surveillance tracking were prompted by aircarrier pilot organizations in order to increase the level of traffic situational awareness offered by the TCAS II display. The new algorithms are included in a proposed new version of TCAS II MOPS DO-185A which is commonly referred to as Change 7.0. TCAS II change 7.0 units will be introduced into the US airspace beginning as early as 1999 as part of a program to implement improvements in both TCAS II surveillance and collision avoidance.
Summary
This paper describes the development and validation of improved TCAS II intruder surveillance tracking and interference limiting algorithms. Improvements in interference limiting were prompted by the FAA Spectrum Management Office and by international aviation administrations in order to further reduce interference to ground-based air traffic control surveillance by TCAS II...
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Total global lightning inferred from Schumann resonance measurements
December 27, 1998
Journal Article
Published in:
J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 103, No. D24, 27 December 1998, pp. 31,775-31,779.
Summary
Radiation with frequencies of 5-30 Hz is ducted between Earth's surface and ionosphere with little attenuation; at the lowest frequencies, waves travel several times around the Earth before losing most of their energy. Much of this radiation is produced by lightning. Here we assume that all of this radiation is produced by lightning, and attempt to invert the observed and electric and magnetic fields to infer global lightning activity. We show 10 days of inversions. For these 10 days, the inferred average rate of vertical charge transfer squared is only 1.7 105 (ten to the fifth) (Ckm)2/s Other studies suggest that the root mean square moment change of a flash is about 166 Coulomb kilometers. If we naively assume that each of these flashes is composed of four equally sized strokes, then we conclude that our entire observed signal could be produced by only 22 flashes per second.
Summary
Radiation with frequencies of 5-30 Hz is ducted between Earth's surface and ionosphere with little attenuation; at the lowest frequencies, waves travel several times around the Earth before losing most of their energy. Much of this radiation is produced by lightning. Here we assume that all of this radiation is...
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En route ATM decision support tool computer-human interface requirements development
December 1, 1998
Conference Paper
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2nd USA/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar, 1-4 December 1998.
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) is supporting the FAA-sponsored effort to specify Computer Human Interface (CHI) requirements for the En Route Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools (ERATMDST) program. The ERATMDST CHI specification is the FAA's vehicle to ensure an operationally suitable user interface is provided for the DSTs (such as conflict probe) to support free flight. The initial draft of the ERATMDST CHI requirements was published in September 1998 and defines an initial CHI which incorporates elements of the NASA CTAS and the MITRE URET prototypes, an Operational Display and Input Development (ODID) display philosophy, and an outline of the end-state CHI. The information will be presented with a consistent, usable look and feel modeled on the advanced human-centered CHI developed by Eurocontrol. This paper describes a CHI Requirements Engineering Model (CREM) and presents preliminary test results of ODID-like display elements in the ERATMDST CHI with controller-in- the-loop simulations presented in terms of workload and response times.
Summary
MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) is supporting the FAA-sponsored effort to specify Computer Human Interface (CHI) requirements for the En Route Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools (ERATMDST) program. The ERATMDST CHI specification is the FAA's vehicle to ensure an operationally suitable user interface is provided for the DSTs (such as...
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Airbus 320 performance during ATC-directed breakouts on final approach
November 20, 1998
Project Report
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-265
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An evaluation of Airbus 320 (A320) performance during ATC-directed breakouts was conducted in a two-part study during 1995. Phase 1 tested the combined effect of proposed ATC phraseology, pilot situational awareness training, and an A320-specific breakout procedure on performance. Pilot training included a briefing and viewing a videotape, but no simulator practice. Turn performance statistics from the Precision Runway Monitor Demonstration Program were used as the test criteria. Pilot preferences regarding procedures and the training material were also elicited. Three conclusions were: (1) breakout performance given the tested combination of pilot training and proposed ATC phraseology did meet the test criteria; (2) breakout performance given existing procedures did not meet the test criteria; and (3) the tested breakout procedure should be refined because it conflicted with other cockpit procedures and increased the transition time to a positive climb rate. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that a combination of pilot situational awareness training, A320 breakout procedure, and modified ATC breakout phraseology equivalent to that tested in Phase 2 be employed for simultaneous parallel approach operations in instrument meteorological conditions.
Summary
An evaluation of Airbus 320 (A320) performance during ATC-directed breakouts was conducted in a two-part study during 1995. Phase 1 tested the combined effect of proposed ATC phraseology, pilot situational awareness training, and an A320-specific breakout procedure on performance. Pilot training included a briefing and viewing a videotape, but no...
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