Publications

Low level wind shear has been identified as an aviation hazard which has caused or contributed to a significant number of aircraft accidents (Soffer, 1990). To protect aircraft from hazardous wind shear, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) developed a system called the Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS), containing a collection of anemometers as well as data processing logic (Wilson and Gramzow, 1991). The LLWAS has undergone several advancements in both design and algorithmic computation. The latest deployment, known as the Network Expansion Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS-NE), consists of additional sensors to the original LLWAS network, providing better coverage of the airfield. In addition, the LLWAS-NE is capable of providing runway-oriented wind shear and microburst alerts with loss and gain values. The alerts from LLWAS-NE will be integrated with those from the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) and the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) at locations where all systems are available (Cole, 1992; Cole and Todd, 1994). An analysis was undertaken at Orlando (MCO) and Dallas/Ft. Worth (DFW) International Airports to assess the accuracy of wind shear alerts produced by LLWAS-NE and the TDWR/LLWASNE integration algorithm. Identifying improvements that can be made to either system is important, as LLWAS-NE alert information is anticipated to be integrated with ITWS in an ITWS/LLWAS-NE integration algorithm. As currently specified, the ITWS/LLWAS-NE integration algorithm will work the same as the TDWR/LLWAS-NE version. The ITWS/LLWAS-NE algorithm is an area where additional work is necessary to ascertain if the integration parameters should be modified to account for performance differences between the ITWS and TDWR algorithms. We suggest that ongoing assessment of the LLWAS-NE should use both LLWAS-NE data and TDWR base data, when possible. Comparing both data sets also will facilitate optimization of LLWAS-NE parameters used in the computation of the alerts.

Accurate, short-term forecasts of where thunderstorms will develop, move and decay allow for strategic traffic management in and around the aviation terminal and enroute airspace. Pre-planning to avoid adverse weather conditions provides safe, smooth and continuous air traffic flow and savings in both fuel cost and time. Wolfson, et. al ( 1997) describe the problem of convective weather forecasting for FAA applications. In 1995, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT-LL) and National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) scientists and engineers agreed to collaborate on the development of a convective weather forecasting algorithm for use in airport terminal areas. Each laboratory brings special strengths to the project. NCAR has been developing techniques for precise, short-term (0-60 minutes) forecasts of thunderstorm initiation, movement and dissipation for the FAA over the past ten years and has developed the Auto-Nowcaster software. MIT-LL has been developing real-time algorithms for the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS), including techniques for storm tracking, gust front detection, and calculating storm growth and decay (as part of predicting microbursts) . NSSL has been working on the NEXRAD Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm, and on understanding the predictive value of the storm cell information. Thus by using the latest research results and best techniques available at each laboratory, the collaborative effort will hopefully result in a superior convective weather forecasting algorithm. Our goal in the immediate future is to develop a joint algorithm that can be demonstrated to users of terminal weather information, so that the benefits of convective weather forecast information can be realized, and the remaining needs can be assessed. As a first effort in the collaboration, the laboratories fielded their individual algorithms at the Memphis ITWS site. This paper gives an overview of our collaborative experiment in Memphis, the system each laboratory operated, some preliminary analysis of our performance on one case, and our plans for the near future.

The Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT) was formed in 1996 as part of the reorganization of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program, to provide an effective way to conduct critical applied research in a collaborative and rational fashion. Detecting and predicting convective weather is extremely important to aviation, since approximately half of the national airspace delay in the warm season is caused by thunderstorms. Reliable 0--6 hr storm predictions are essential for aviation users to achieve safe and efficient use of the airspace, as well as for future air traffic control automation systems. Our goal on this PDT is to direct our research and development activities toward operationally useful convective weather detection and forecast products, and delivery of those products, so that users can receive benefits on an immediate and continual basis. Given that we have many more initiatives than funding, we have chosen to prioritize our activities according to near-term achievable benefits to users. Our hope is that the success of initial planned demonstrations will help the FAA identify a consistent level of long-term R&D funding, so that we can make real progress towards achieving our full set of goals. In this paper, we present our statement of the FAA Convective Weather Forecasting problem, evidence of the need for forecasts in the National Airspace System (NAS), and an illustration of the air traffic delay caused by convective weather. We then discuss our research plan and rationale, and outline our main initiatives for the upcoming year.

The aviation system is one of the principal users of weather information. Assessing the benefits of weather information to aviation is important in a number of contexts: 1. Detemining the priority of investments in aviation weather information vis a vis other options for transportation and/or weather system investments, 2. Determinins priorities for research, implementation, facility staffing and information distribution, 3. The allocation of roles and responsibilities between various government agencies and private industry for various functions, and 4. Use in forecasting to set thresholds (see, e.g., [Felton, 1991], [Andrews, 1993], and [Liljas and Murphy, 1994]) With reduced government funding in a variety of areas related to aviation weather and with cost pressures on the users of the weather information (especially the air carriers), the importance of carefully performed benefits assessment has increased significantly in the past decade and is expected to become even more important in the near future. Our discussion will focus on safety and delay reduction. In the case of safety, we will consider in some depth the case of the deloyment of wind shear detection systems, while delay reduction will focus on results from recent studies of improved information on airport weather. In each case, we will also identify issues related to other benefits assessments in these areas.

The Federal Aviation Administration (F.A.A.) is currently embarking on programs, such as the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), that will significantly improve the aviation weather information in the terminal area. Given the great increase in the quantity and quality of terminal weather information, it would be highly desirable to provide this information directly to pilots rather than having to rely on voice communications. Providing terminal weather information automatically via data link would both enhance pilot awareness of weather hazards and reduce air traffic controller workload. This paper will describe current work in the area of providing direct pilot access to terminal weather information via existing data link capabilities, such as ACARS (Addressing, Communications and Reporting System). During the summer of 1994, the ITWS testbed systems at Orlando, FL and Memphis, TN provided real–time terminal weather information to pilots in the form of text and character graphics–based products via the ACARS VHF data link. This effort follows an earlier successful demonstration during the summer of 1993 at Orlando (Campbell, 1994). Two types of Terminal Weather lnformation for Pilots (TWIP) messages are generated: a text-only message and a character graphics map. In order to ensure their operational utility, these products were developed in consultation with an ad hoc pilot user group. The TWIP Text Message is intended for typical ACARS cockpit displays, which are roughly 20 characters wide by 10 lines high. The TWIP Character Graphics Depiction is intended for the cockpit printers available on some aircraft that are at least 40 characters wide. Both products are intended to provide strategic information to pilots about terminal weather conditions to aid flight planning and improve situational awareness of potential hazards.

The ASR-9 Wind Shear Processor (WSP) is intended as an economical alternative for those airports that have not been slated to receive a Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) but have, or will be receiving, an ASR-9 radar. Lincoln Laboratory has developed a prototype ASR-9 WSP system which has been demonstrated during the summer months of the past three year in Orlando, Florida. During the operational test period, microburst and gust front warnings, as well as storm motion indications, were provided to the Air Traffic Control in real time. The ASR-9 Microburst Detection Algorithm (AMDA) is based on the earlier TDWR Microburst Detection Algorithm but has been substantially modified to match better the particular strengths and weaknesses of the ASR-9 rapid-scanning fan-beam radar. The most significant additions included a capability to detect overhead microbursts, a reflectivity processing step used to help detect velocity signatures that have been biased by overhanging precipitation, and a modification to some of the shear segment grouping and thresholding parameters to accommodate better the typical on-air siting of the ASR-9. In addition, the AMDA has been designed to be as efficient as possible to allow it to run at the radar's 4.8 seconds/scan antennas rotation rate on a single-board computer. A detailed description of AMDA, as well as the performance evaluation strategy and results, are presented in this report.

Hazardous weather in the terminal area is the major cause of aviation system delays as well as a principal cause of air carrier accidents. Several systems presently under development will provide significant increases in terminal safety. However, these systems will not make a major impact on weather-induced delays in the terminal area, meet a number of the safety needs (such as information to support ground deicing decisions), or reduce the workload of the terminal controller. The Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) will provide improved aviation weather information in the allocated TRACON area (up to 50 nmi from the airport) by integrating data and products from various Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and National Weather Service (NWS) sensors and weather information systems. The data from these sources will be combined to provide a unified set of safety and planning weather products for pilots, controllers, and terminal area traffic managers. by using data from multiple sensors, ITWS can generate important new products where no individual sensor alone could generate a single, reliable product. In other instances, use of data from several sources can compensate for erroneous data from one sensor and thus improve the overall integrity of existing products. Major objectives of the ITWS program are to increase the effective airport acceptance rate in adverse weather by rpoviding information to support terminal automation systems, better terminal route planning, and wake vortex advisory services, and to reduce the need for controllers to communicate weather information to pilots via VHF voice. This report summarizes the work acocmplished during fiscal year 1992 on the development of the ITWS initial operational capability products; functional prototype design; operation of testbeds to acquire data for product development and testing; operation evaluation of products by ATC users; investigation of approaches for effective transfer of the technology to the production contractor; transfer of products to pilots via digital data links; and technical support for the ITWS documents required by the General Accounting Office (GAO).

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) initiated the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) program in the mid-1980's in response to the need for improved real-time hazardous weather (especially low-altitude wind shear) surveillance in the terminal area (Turnbull, et al., 1989). The initial focus for the TDWR was to provide reliable, fully automated Doppler radar detection of microbursts and gust fronts and 20-minute warning of wind shifts which could effect runway usage. Subsequent operational demonstrations have shown that the overall terminal situational awareness provided by the TDWR color Geographical Situation Display (GSD) depiction of wind shear locations, weather reflectivity and storm motion also yields substantial improvements in terminal operations efficiency for air traffic managers and for airlines. In this paper, we will describe the current status and deployment strategy for the operational systems and recent results from the extensive testing of the radar system concept and of the weather information dissemination approach.

In recent years a number of aircraft accidents have resulted from a small scale, low altitude wind shear phenomena known as a microburst. Microbursts are produced within thunderstorms and are characterized by intense downdrafts which spread out after impacting the earth's surface, displaying strong divergent outflows of wind. They are often associated with heavy rainfall, but can occur without surface rainfall (Wolfson, 1988). The Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TWDR) program is the first system developed to detect microbursts from a ground-based radar in the airport terminal area. Improving safety is its primary goal, and test operations in Denver, Kansas City, and Orlando have shown it to be highly successful in identifying microbursts. In general, this identification has been performed with a > 90% probability of Detection (POD) and a < 10% Probability of False Alarm (PFA) (Merritt et. al., 1989). The Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) will introduce several new low-level wind shear products. These products include the Microburst Prediction product, the Microburst Trend product, and an improved Microburst Detection Product. The Microburst prediction product will provide estimates of the future location, onset time, and peak intensity of microbursts before their surface effects are evident (Wolfson et. al., 1993). The Microburst Trend product is responsible for warning users about expected increases, over a two minute interval, in wind shear intensity along the approach and departure corridors of a runway. This two minute time period approximates the delay between pilot receipt of an alert and the time of actual encounter with the event. The trend product should serve to improve pilot information when making decisions involving a wind shear event. This is particularly important for currently weak, but rapidly intensifying, wind shears. The Improved Microburst Detection Algorithm being developed under the ITWS program attempts to build on the performance of the TDWR Microburst algorithm by improving POD and PFA and providing fiier localization capabilities. More importantly, enhancements to the TDWR algorithm are necessary in order to 1. provide a consistent input to the microburst trend algorithm. 2. closely relate the microburst alert to the energy loss that the aircraft will actually experience and to alerts from an on-board forward-looking Doppler radar. The TDWR algorithm does a good job detecting the microburst impacted airspace, but makes no attempt to deduce the number and centers of the events. Since the resultant alert shapes are uncorrelated over time, performing a more detailed meteorological analysis, such as location tracking, and size and intensity projections required by the microburst trend product, are compromised. This motivating factor for the improved Microburst Detection Algorithm is discussed in more detail in other works (Dasey. 1993a. Dasey, 1993b). The focus of this paper is on the second motivating factor listed above: relating the microburst alert more closely with actual aircraft performance. Much of this understanding has evolved from the analysis of data from instrumented aircraft penetrations of microbursts within the Orlando terminal area, coincident withTDWR testbed operation (Matthews and Berke, 1993.Campbell et. al., 1992). The microburst penetration flights were conducted by NASA Langley, the University of North Dakota (UND), and several manufacturers of forward-looking wind shear detection systems, including Bendix, Rockwell-Collins, and Westinghouse. Use of this data has allowed comparison of the alert representation from the TDWR Microburst algorithm with that of the initial ITWS algorithm in terms of its relationship with aircraft performance. Section 2. describes a wind shear hazard index, called the F Factor, and its estimation from a ground-based Doppler radar. The estimated F Factors from the TDWR alert shapes are described in section 3. Direct use of TDWR base data for computing shear is explored in section 4, as is the correlation of that data with aircraft F Factor measurements. Estimation of the F Factor from alert shapes output from the initial ITWS detection algorithm is explored in section 5. Section 6 examines the results and emphasizes future research.

In the past decade, a great deal of effort has been invested in developing ground based wind shear detection systems for major U.S. airports. However, there has been a lack of research in developing a quantitative relationship between the wind shear hazards detected by ground based systems and the actual hazard experienced by an aircraft flying through the affected air space. To date, the main thrust of the verification efforts for ground-based systems has been to ensure that the system accurately detect and report the presence of the meteorological phenomena that cause potentially important hazardous windshear. There is a subtle, but potentially important difference between detecting the presence or a microburst and detecting the presence of an aviation hazard. With this in mind, it would seem prudent to rigorously determine what correlation exists between the wind shear warnings that are generated from ground systems and the performance impact on aircraft flying through the impacted airspace. The operational demonstration of the testbed Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) in Orlando, Florida along with the testing of airborne Doppler radar systems created a unique opportunity to compare extensively the ground based windshear reports with in-situ aircraft measurements. This paper presents the results from 69 microburst penetrations flown in 1990 and 1991 by the University of North Dakota (UND), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center, and Rockwell Collins under surveillance of the Lincoln-operated TDWR testbed radar. The primary goal of the research was to determine the relative accuracy of several methods designed to generate a numerical microburst hazard index, called the F factor, from ground-based Doppler radar data. It is hope that this work will provide both a qualitative and quantitative basis for the discussion and assessment of microburst hazard reporting for ground-based microburst detection systems. The Integrated Airborne Wind Shear Program is a joint NASA/FAA program with the objective to provide the technology base that will permit low altitude windshear risk reduction through airborne detection, warning, and avoidance. Additionally, the program aims to demonstrate the practicality and utility of real-time assimilation and synthesis of ground-derived windshear data to support executive level cockpit warning and crew-centered information display. Lincoln Laboratory joined this effort and provided the weather radar ground support and some of the post-flight data analysis for NASA's microburst penetration flights in Orlando, Florida.