Publications
Gust front update algorithm for the Weather Systems Processor (WSP)
July 29, 2002
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-275
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Summary
The Gust Front Update Algorithm (GFUP) is part of the gust front product generation chain for the ASR-9 Weather Systems Processor (WSP). GFUP processes gust front detection and position prediction data output by the Machine Intelligent Gust Front Algorithm (MIGFA), and uses an internal timer to schedule generation of updated current and 10- and 20-minute gust front predictions at 1-minute intervals. By substituting appropriate interval gust front forecast data from MIGFA, the locations of gust fronts shown on the user display are updated at a rate that is faster than the radar base data processed by MIGFA. Prior to output, the updated curve position data are smothered by GFUP using a tangent-spline interpolation algorithm. This document provides a general overview and high level description of the GFUP algorithm.
Summary
The Gust Front Update Algorithm (GFUP) is part of the gust front product generation chain for the ASR-9 Weather Systems Processor (WSP). GFUP processes gust front detection and position prediction data output by the Machine Intelligent Gust Front Algorithm (MIGFA), and uses an internal timer to schedule generation of updated...
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Potential benefits of reducing wake-related aircraft spacing at the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport
July 12, 2002
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-304
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Measurements and modeling of wake vortices reveal that the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) minimum separation requirements for departing aircraft are often overly conservative. If the separation times following heavy aircraft can be safely reduced, considerable savings will be realized. The Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) experiences departure delays daily. Banks of departing aircraft often create a significant queue at the end of the runway, with aircraft waiting between 10-20 minutes to depart. Additional delays occur during weather recovery operations after the terminal airspace has been impacted by thunderstorms. This report produces projected delay and cost benefits of implementing reduced wake spacing for departing aircraft at DFW. The benefits are calculated by simulating aircraft departures during both clear weather and weather recovery operations, using current and possible reduced spacings. The difference in delay values using different separation standards is used to calculate a cost savings to the airlines. The benefits for a single day are extended to a yearly approximation based on the estimated number of days that the separation criteria could be safely reduced. Departure information from February 19, 2001 is analyzed for clear weather operations. The simulation reveals a savings of $4.7 million/yr when the separation criteria is reduced from the current practice of 110 seconds to 90 seconds. A further reduction in the separation criteria to 60 seconds pushes the maximum savings to almost $10 million/yr. The daily savings for a weather recovery operation is $19,600 for weather impacts between 15-60 minutes and a reduction in spacing fiom the current 110 seconds to 90 seconds. The average increases to $36,200 when the spacing is reduced to 60 seconds. Significant thunderstorm events impacted the DFW terminal airspace 59 times during 2001 leading to projected yearly savings of greater than $2.1 million for a 60 second separation criteria following heavies.
Summary
Measurements and modeling of wake vortices reveal that the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) minimum separation requirements for departing aircraft are often overly conservative. If the separation times following heavy aircraft can be safely reduced, considerable savings will be realized. The Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) experiences departure delays daily. Banks...
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ASR-9 Weather Systems Processor (WSP) signal processing algorithms
June 25, 2002
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-255
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Thunderstorm activity and associated low-altitude wind shear constitute a significant safety hazard to aviation, particularly during operations near airport terminals where aircraft altitude is low and flight routes are constrained. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has procured several dedicated meteorological sensors (Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), Network Expansion Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS) at major airports to enhance the safety and efficiency of operations during convective weather. A hardware and software modification to existing Airport Surveillance Radars (ASR-9)-the Weather Systems Processor (WSP)-will provide similar capabilities at much lower cost, thus allowing the FAA to extend its protection envelope to medium density airports and airports where thunderstorm activity is less frequent. Following successful operation demonstrations of a prototype ASR-WSP, the FAA has procured approximately 35 WSP's for nationwide deployment. Lincoln Laboratory was responsible for development of all data processing algorithms, which were provided as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE), to be implemented by the full-scale development (FSD) contractor without modification. This report defines the operations that are used to produce images of atmospheric reflectivity, Doppler velocity and data quality that are used by WSP's meteorological product algorithms to generate automated information on hazardous wind shear and other phenomena. Principle requirements are suppression of interference (e.g. ground clutter, moving points targets, meteorological and ground echoes originating from beyond the radar's unambiguous range), generation of meteorologically relevant images and estimates of data quality. Hereafter, these operations will be referred to as "signal processing" and the resulting images as "base data."
Summary
Thunderstorm activity and associated low-altitude wind shear constitute a significant safety hazard to aviation, particularly during operations near airport terminals where aircraft altitude is low and flight routes are constrained. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has procured several dedicated meteorological sensors (Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), Network Expansion Low Level...
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Machine intelligent gust front algorithm for the WSP
June 10, 2002
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-274
Summary
The Machine Intelligent Gust Front Algorithm (MIGFA) utilizes multi-dimensional image processing and fuzzy logic techniques to identify gust fronts in Doppler radar data generated by the ASR-9 Weather Systems Processor (WSP). The algorithm generates products that support both safety and planning functions for ATC. Outputs include current and predicted locations of gust fronts, as well as estimates of the wind shear and wind shift associated with each gust front. This document provides both high level and detailed functional descriptions of FAA build 2.0 of the WSP MIGFA. The document was written with many explicit references to data structures and routines in the actual software in order that it may serve as a useful algorithm development and programmers reference guide.
Summary
The Machine Intelligent Gust Front Algorithm (MIGFA) utilizes multi-dimensional image processing and fuzzy logic techniques to identify gust fronts in Doppler radar data generated by the ASR-9 Weather Systems Processor (WSP). The algorithm generates products that support both safety and planning functions for ATC. Outputs include current and predicted locations...
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A comparison of boundary layer wind estimation techniques
May 13, 2002
Conference Paper
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10th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 13-16 May 2002, pp. 331-33334.
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Accurate, short-term (0-2 hour) forecasts of convective initiation provide critical information about weather that has a major impact on aviation safety and system capacity. The Terminal Convective Weather Forecast (TCWF) algorithm is a key component of the FAA's operational Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). Convective forecasts rely, in part, upon detection of convergence zones in the boundary layer. Detection of convergence requires accurate, high-resolution wind estimates, which may be based on measurements from many sources, including Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), Automatic Weather Observation System/Automatic Surface Observation System (AWOS/ASOS), aircraft (via the Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System, MDCRS) and Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS). These data may be directly analyzed, combined with satellite and sounding data or ingested into physical models that estimate winds and produce short term forecasts. We compare two windfield estimation techniques: Terminal Winds (TWINDS) [Cole et. al., 2000], an optimal estimation algorithm developed at Lincoln Laboratory that is deployed operationally in ITWS, and Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) [Sun and Crook, 2001], a 4DVAR algorithm developed and fielded by the Research Applications Program (RAP) at NCAR. These techniques differ markedly in their use of physical models: TWINDS applies no physical constraints to its analysis, while VDRAS uses a 4DVAR technique to fit the data with a boundary layer model as a strong constraint. The techniques also differ in their computational requirements: TWINDS requires substantially less computational power than VDRAS. We were able to run TWINDS at higher horizontal resolution and update rate (1km grid spacing, 5 minute update) than VDRAS (2km and 12 minutes).
Summary
Accurate, short-term (0-2 hour) forecasts of convective initiation provide critical information about weather that has a major impact on aviation safety and system capacity. The Terminal Convective Weather Forecast (TCWF) algorithm is a key component of the FAA's operational Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). Convective forecasts rely, in part, upon...
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An automated, operational two hour convective weather forecast for the Corridor Integrated Weather
May 13, 2002
Conference Paper
Published in:
10th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, 13-16 May 2002, pp. 116-119.
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The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) is an initiative of the Weather and Flight Service Systems Integrated Product Team, AUA400. One of the goals of the AWRP is to create accurate and accessible forecasts of hazardous weather tailored to the needs of the aviation community. Pursuant to this goal, the AWRP has sponsored the collaboration of the Research Applications Program (RAP) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Aviation and Forecast Research Divisions at the NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), the Weather Sensing Group of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) and the National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL) on a Product Development Team (PDT). This Convective Weather PDT is developing an automated system that combines real-time weather- radar data with the current "state-of-the-art" convective weather prediction algorithms to produce forecasts of convective weather for the heavily traveled air traffic routes in the Great Lakes/Northeast corridor (Chicago to New York). This Regional Convective Weather Forecast (RCWF) will be provided to traffic flow management decision-makers as part of the proof-of-concept Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS), which began operations in July 2001 with a l-hr animated Regional Convective Weather Forecast (RCWF).
Summary
The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) is an initiative of the Weather and Flight Service Systems Integrated Product Team, AUA400. One of the goals of the AWRP is to create accurate and accessible forecasts of hazardous weather tailored to the needs of the aviation community. Pursuant to this goal...
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An improved gust front detection capability for the ASR-9 WSP
May 13, 2002
Conference Paper
Published in:
10th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 13-16 May 2002, pp. 379-382.
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Summary
The Weather Systems Processor (WSP) is being deployed by FAA at 35 medium and high-density ASR-9 equipped airports across the United States. The Machine Intelligent Gust Front Algorithm (MIGFA) developed at Lincoln Laboratory provides important gust front detection and tracking capability for this system as well as other FAA systems including Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) and Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). The algorithm utilizes multidimensional image processing, data fusion, and fuzzy logic techniques to recognize gust fronts observed in Doppler radar data. Some deficiencies in algorithm performance have been identified through ongoing analysis of data from two initial limited production WSP sites in Austin, TX (AUS) and Albuquerque, NM (ABQ). At AUS, the most common cause of false alarms is bands of low-reflectivity rain echoes having shapes and intensities similar to gust front thin line echoes. Missed or late detections have occasionally occurred when gust fronts are near or embedded in the leading edge of approaching line storms, where direct radar evidence of the gust front (e.g.. thin line echo, velocity convergence) may be fragmented or absent altogether. In ABQ, "canyon wind" events emanating, from mountains located just east of the airport occur with very little lead time, and often with little or no radar signatures, making timely detection on the basis of the radar data alone difficult. MIGFA is equipped with numerous parameters and thresholds that can be adjusted dynamically based on recognition of the local or regional weather context in which it is operating. Through additional contextual weather information processing, this dynamic sensitization capability has been further exploited to address the deficiencies noted above, resulting in an appreciable improvement in performance on data collected at the two WSP sites.
Summary
The Weather Systems Processor (WSP) is being deployed by FAA at 35 medium and high-density ASR-9 equipped airports across the United States. The Machine Intelligent Gust Front Algorithm (MIGFA) developed at Lincoln Laboratory provides important gust front detection and tracking capability for this system as well as other FAA systems...
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Aircraft encounters with thunderstorms in enroute vs. terminal airspace above Memphis, Tennesssee
May 13, 2002
Conference Paper
Published in:
Proc. 10th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, 13-16 May 2002, pp. 162-165.
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To date, very little attention has been given to quantifying the effects of thunderstorms on air traffic in enroute airspace. What types of storms cause pilots to deviate from their nominal flight routes? What types of storms do pilots fly through? Around? Over? When thunderstorms are forecast to affect a particular region, how many planes will need to be rerouted? Which ones? Which aspects of the storm need to be accurately forecast in order to answer those questions? How does the forecast accuracy affect the quality of airspace capacity predictions? Quantitative answers to these questions would contribute to the design of useful decision support tools. Federal Aviation Administration decision support tools are being equipped with the ability for air traffic managers to define dynamic "flow constrained areas" (FCAs). Each FCA will be a polygon in latitude/longitude space with ceiling and floor altitudes and a motion vector. One primary use for FCAs will be to define regions that do, or probably will, contain convective thunderstorm activity. These tools will help air traffic managers decide which planes to re-route around the weather and which planes have a reasonable chance of flying through, between, or over the storms. Although it will be helpful to have the ability to manually define FCAs in the traffic managers' tools, the efficiency of the solutions that will be worked out with those tools would be greatly enhanced by answers to the questions posed above. In our prior work we have attempted to quantify the behavior of pilots who encounter thunderstorms in terminal airspace during the final 60 nautical miles of flight. In this study we compare the storm avoidance behavior of pilots in enroute airspace with that of pilots who encountered the very same storms at lower altitudes, in terminal airspace. The study is preliminary, but it complements the terminal work, affords some insight into pilot behavior, and raises questions that should be addressed in a larger study.
Summary
To date, very little attention has been given to quantifying the effects of thunderstorms on air traffic in enroute airspace. What types of storms cause pilots to deviate from their nominal flight routes? What types of storms do pilots fly through? Around? Over? When thunderstorms are forecast to affect a...
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The 2001 demonstration of automated cloud forecast guidance products for San Francisco International Airport
May 13, 2002
Conference Paper
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10th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (13th Conf. on Applied Climatology), 13-16 May 2002, pp. J99-J102.
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A system for providing cloud prediction guidance to aviation weather forecasters was demonstrated during the summer of 2001. The system was sponsored by the FAA, and developed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory in collaboration with SJSU, the University of Quebec at Montreal, Penn State University, and the Central Weather Service Unit (CWSU) at Oakland Center. Products were provided to forecasters at the CWSU, the NWS in Monterey, and the Weather Center at United Airlines. Real-time data are processed to support a display of weather graphics, and to provide input to a suite of four independent cloud forecast models developed specifically for the marine stratus application. The forecast models were run hourly each morning to provide updated forecasts during the evolution of cloud dissipation int he Bay area. As part of each update cycle, the four model forecasts were combined to provide a Consensus Forecast product. Weather observations and forecasts were provided to users on a web browser display.
Summary
A system for providing cloud prediction guidance to aviation weather forecasters was demonstrated during the summer of 2001. The system was sponsored by the FAA, and developed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory in collaboration with SJSU, the University of Quebec at Montreal, Penn State University, and the Central Weather Service Unit...
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En route weather depiction benefits of the NEXRAD vertically integrated liquid water product utilized by the Corridor Integrated Weather System
May 13, 2002
Conference Paper
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10th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 13-16 May 2002, pp. 120-123.
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It is demonstrated in this paper that weather depictions in an operational environment based upon VIL provide more meaningful information for en route traffic routing than a BREF product. VIL precipitation proves advantageous in limiting contamination from Anomalous Propagation (AP) ground clutter, biological targets (e.g., birds and insects), and radar artifacts. The extended vertical coverage of VIL sampling also better depicts storm cells as they first develop, further assisting traffic managers achieve more efficient use of tactical airspace when weather occurs unexpectedly.
Summary
It is demonstrated in this paper that weather depictions in an operational environment based upon VIL provide more meaningful information for en route traffic routing than a BREF product. VIL precipitation proves advantageous in limiting contamination from Anomalous Propagation (AP) ground clutter, biological targets (e.g., birds and insects), and radar...
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