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Development of a field artifical intelligence triage tool: Confidence in the prediction of shock, transfusion, and definitive surgical therapy in patients with truncal gunshot wounds

Summary

BACKGROUND: In-field triage tools for trauma patients are limited by availability of information, linear risk classification, and a lack of confidence reporting. We therefore set out to develop and test a machine learning algorithm that can overcome these limitations by accurately and confidently making predictions to support in-field triage in the first hours after traumatic injury. METHODS: Using an American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program-derived database of truncal and junctional gunshot wound (GSW) patients (aged 1~0 years), we trained an information-aware Dirichlet deep neural network (field artificial intelligence triage). Using supervised training, field artificial intelligence triage was trained to predict shock and the need for major hemorrhage control procedures or early massive transfusion (MT) using GSW anatomical locations, vital signs, and patient information available in the field. In parallel, a confidence model was developed to predict the true-dass probability ( scale of 0-1 ), indicating the likelihood that the prediction made was correct, based on the values and interconnectivity of input variables.
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Summary

BACKGROUND: In-field triage tools for trauma patients are limited by availability of information, linear risk classification, and a lack of confidence reporting. We therefore set out to develop and test a machine learning algorithm that can overcome these limitations by accurately and confidently making predictions to support in-field triage in...

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Multimodal representation learning via maximization of local mutual information [e-print]

Published in:
Intl. Conf. on Medical Image Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention, MICCAI, 27 September-1 October 2021.

Summary

We propose and demonstrate a representation learning approach by maximizing the mutual information between local features of images and text. The goal of this approach is to learn useful image representations by taking advantage of the rich information contained in the free text that describes the findings in the image. Our method learns image and text encoders by encouraging the resulting representations to exhibit high local mutual information. We make use of recent advances in mutual information estimation with neural network discriminators. We argue that, typically, the sum of local mutual information is a lower bound on the global mutual information. Our experimental results in the downstream image classification tasks demonstrate the advantages of using local features for image-text representation learning.
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Summary

We propose and demonstrate a representation learning approach by maximizing the mutual information between local features of images and text. The goal of this approach is to learn useful image representations by taking advantage of the rich information contained in the free text that describes the findings in the image...

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Learning emergent discrete message communication for cooperative reinforcement learning

Published in:
37th Conf. on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, UAI 2021, early access, 26-30 July 2021.

Summary

Communication is a important factor that enables agents work cooperatively in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). Most previous work uses continuous message communication whose high representational capacity comes at the expense of interpretability. Allowing agents to learn their own discrete message communication protocol emerged from a variety of domains can increase the interpretability for human designers and other agents. This paper proposes a method to generate discrete messages analogous to human languages, and achieve communication by a broadcast-and-listen mechanism based on self-attention. We show that discrete message communication has performance comparable to continuous message communication but with much a much smaller vocabulary size. Furthermore, we propose an approach that allows humans to interactively send discrete messages to agents.
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Summary

Communication is a important factor that enables agents work cooperatively in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). Most previous work uses continuous message communication whose high representational capacity comes at the expense of interpretability. Allowing agents to learn their own discrete message communication protocol emerged from a variety of domains can increase...

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Information Aware max-norm Dirichlet networks for predictive uncertainty estimation

Published in:
Neural Netw., Vol. 135, 2021, pp. 105–114.

Summary

Precise estimation of uncertainty in predictions for AI systems is a critical factor in ensuring trust and safety. Deep neural networks trained with a conventional method are prone to over-confident predictions. In contrast to Bayesian neural networks that learn approximate distributions on weights to infer prediction confidence, we propose a novel method, Information Aware Dirichlet networks, that learn an explicit Dirichlet prior distribution on predictive distributions by minimizing a bound on the expected max norm of the prediction error and penalizing information associated with incorrect outcomes. Properties of the new cost function are derived to indicate how improved uncertainty estimation is achieved. Experiments using real datasets show that our technique outperforms, by a large margin, state-of-the-art neural networks for estimating within-distribution and out-of-distribution uncertainty, and detecting adversarial examples.
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Summary

Precise estimation of uncertainty in predictions for AI systems is a critical factor in ensuring trust and safety. Deep neural networks trained with a conventional method are prone to over-confident predictions. In contrast to Bayesian neural networks that learn approximate distributions on weights to infer prediction confidence, we propose a...

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Ultrasound diagnosis of COVID-19: robustness and explainability

Published in:
arXiv:2012.01145v1 [eess.IV]

Summary

Diagnosis of COVID-19 at point of care is vital to the containment of the global pandemic. Point of care ultrasound (POCUS) provides rapid imagery of lungs to detect COVID-19 in patients in a repeatable and cost effective way. Previous work has used public datasets of POCUS videos to train an AI model for diagnosis that obtains high sensitivity. Due to the high stakes application we propose the use of robust and explainable techniques. We demonstrate experimentally that robust models have more stable predictions and offer improved interpretability. A framework of contrastive explanations based on adversarial perturbations is used to explain model predictions that aligns with human visual perception.
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Summary

Diagnosis of COVID-19 at point of care is vital to the containment of the global pandemic. Point of care ultrasound (POCUS) provides rapid imagery of lungs to detect COVID-19 in patients in a repeatable and cost effective way. Previous work has used public datasets of POCUS videos to train an...

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Automated posterior interval evaluation for inference in probabilistic programming

Author:
Published in:
Intl. Conf. on Probabilistic Programming, PROBPROG, 22 October 2020.

Summary

In probabilistic inference, credible intervals constructed from posterior samples provide ranges of likely values for continuous parameters of interest. Intuitively, an inference procedure is optimal if it produces the most precise posterior intervals that cover the true parameter value with the expected frequency in repeated experiments. We present theories and methods for automating posterior interval evaluation of inference performance in probabilistic programming using two metrics: 1.) truth coverage, and 2.) ratio of the empirical over the ideal interval widths. Demonstrating with inference on popular regression and state-space models, we show how the metrics provide effective comparisons between different inference procedures, and capture the effects of collinearity and model misspecification. Overall, we claim such automated interval evaluation can accelerate the robust design and comparison of probabilistic inference programs by directly diagnosing how accurately and precisely they can estimate parameters of interest.
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Summary

In probabilistic inference, credible intervals constructed from posterior samples provide ranges of likely values for continuous parameters of interest. Intuitively, an inference procedure is optimal if it produces the most precise posterior intervals that cover the true parameter value with the expected frequency in repeated experiments. We present theories and...

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Failure prediction by confidence estimation of uncertainty-aware Dirichlet networks

Published in:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09865

Summary

Reliably assessing model confidence in deep learning and predicting errors likely to be made are key elements in providing safety for model deployment, in particular for applications with dire consequences. In this paper, it is first shown that uncertainty-aware deep Dirichlet neural networks provide an improved separation between the confidence of correct and incorrect predictions in the true class probability (TCP) metric. Second, as the true class is unknown at test time, a new criterion is proposed for learning the true class probability by matching prediction confidence scores while taking imbalance and TCP constraints into account for correct predictions and failures. Experimental results show our method improves upon the maximum class probability (MCP) baseline and predicted TCP for standard networks on several image classification tasks with various network architectures.
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Summary

Reliably assessing model confidence in deep learning and predicting errors likely to be made are key elements in providing safety for model deployment, in particular for applications with dire consequences. In this paper, it is first shown that uncertainty-aware deep Dirichlet neural networks provide an improved separation between the confidence...

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A multi-task LSTM framework for improved early sepsis prediction

Published in:
Proc. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, AIME, 2020, pp. 49-58.

Summary

Early detection for sepsis, a high-mortality clinical condition, is important for improving patient outcomes. The performance of conventional deep learning methods degrades quickly as predictions are made several hours prior to the clinical definition. We adopt recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to improve early prediction of the onset of sepsis using times series of physiological measurements. Furthermore, physiological data is often missing and imputation is necessary. Absence of data might arise due to decisions made by clinical professionals which carries information. Using the missing data patterns into the learning process can further guide how much trust to place on imputed values. A new multi-task LSTM model is proposed that takes informative missingness into account during training that effectively attributes trust to temporal measurements. Experimental results demonstrate our method outperforms conventional CNN and LSTM models on the PhysioNet-2019 CiC early sepsis prediction challenge in terms of area under receiver-operating curve and precision-recall curve, and further improves upon calibration of prediction scores.
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Summary

Early detection for sepsis, a high-mortality clinical condition, is important for improving patient outcomes. The performance of conventional deep learning methods degrades quickly as predictions are made several hours prior to the clinical definition. We adopt recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to improve early prediction of the onset of sepsis using...

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Towards a distributed framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning research

Summary

Some of the most important publications in deep reinforcement learning over the last few years have been fueled by access to massive amounts of computation through large scale distributed systems. The success of these approaches in achieving human-expert level performance on several complex video-game environments has motivated further exploration into the limits of these approaches as computation increases. In this paper, we present a distributed RL training framework designed for super computing infrastructures such as the MIT SuperCloud. We review a collection of challenging learning environments—such as Google Research Football, StarCraft II, and Multi-Agent Mujoco— which are at the frontier of reinforcement learning research. We provide results on these environments that illustrate the current state of the field on these problems. Finally, we also quantify and discuss the computational requirements needed for performing RL research by enumerating all experiments performed on these environments.
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Summary

Some of the most important publications in deep reinforcement learning over the last few years have been fueled by access to massive amounts of computation through large scale distributed systems. The success of these approaches in achieving human-expert level performance on several complex video-game environments has motivated further exploration into...

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Fast training of deep neural networks robust to adversarial perturbations

Published in:
2020 IEEE High Performance Extreme Computing Conf., HPEC, 22-24 September 2020.

Summary

Deep neural networks are capable of training fast and generalizing well within many domains. Despite their promising performance, deep networks have shown sensitivities to perturbations of their inputs (e.g., adversarial examples) and their learned feature representations are often difficult to interpret, raising concerns about their true capability and trustworthiness. Recent work in adversarial training, a form of robust optimization in which the model is optimized against adversarial examples, demonstrates the ability to improve performance sensitivities to perturbations and yield feature representations that are more interpretable. Adversarial training, however, comes with an increased computational cost over that of standard (i.e., nonrobust) training, rendering it impractical for use in largescale problems. Recent work suggests that a fast approximation to adversarial training shows promise for reducing training time and maintaining robustness in the presence of perturbations bounded by the infinity norm. In this work, we demonstrate that this approach extends to the Euclidean norm and preserves the human-aligned feature representations that are common for robust models. Additionally, we show that using a distributed training scheme can further reduce the time to train robust deep networks. Fast adversarial training is a promising approach that will provide increased security and explainability in machine learning applications for which robust optimization was previously thought to be impractical.
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Summary

Deep neural networks are capable of training fast and generalizing well within many domains. Despite their promising performance, deep networks have shown sensitivities to perturbations of their inputs (e.g., adversarial examples) and their learned feature representations are often difficult to interpret, raising concerns about their true capability and trustworthiness. Recent...

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