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Information Aware max-norm Dirichlet networks for predictive uncertainty estimation

Published in:
Neural Netw., Vol. 135, 2021, pp. 105–114.

Summary

Precise estimation of uncertainty in predictions for AI systems is a critical factor in ensuring trust and safety. Deep neural networks trained with a conventional method are prone to over-confident predictions. In contrast to Bayesian neural networks that learn approximate distributions on weights to infer prediction confidence, we propose a novel method, Information Aware Dirichlet networks, that learn an explicit Dirichlet prior distribution on predictive distributions by minimizing a bound on the expected max norm of the prediction error and penalizing information associated with incorrect outcomes. Properties of the new cost function are derived to indicate how improved uncertainty estimation is achieved. Experiments using real datasets show that our technique outperforms, by a large margin, state-of-the-art neural networks for estimating within-distribution and out-of-distribution uncertainty, and detecting adversarial examples.
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Summary

Precise estimation of uncertainty in predictions for AI systems is a critical factor in ensuring trust and safety. Deep neural networks trained with a conventional method are prone to over-confident predictions. In contrast to Bayesian neural networks that learn approximate distributions on weights to infer prediction confidence, we propose a...

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A multi-task LSTM framework for improved early sepsis prediction

Published in:
Proc. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, AIME, 2020, pp. 49-58.

Summary

Early detection for sepsis, a high-mortality clinical condition, is important for improving patient outcomes. The performance of conventional deep learning methods degrades quickly as predictions are made several hours prior to the clinical definition. We adopt recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to improve early prediction of the onset of sepsis using times series of physiological measurements. Furthermore, physiological data is often missing and imputation is necessary. Absence of data might arise due to decisions made by clinical professionals which carries information. Using the missing data patterns into the learning process can further guide how much trust to place on imputed values. A new multi-task LSTM model is proposed that takes informative missingness into account during training that effectively attributes trust to temporal measurements. Experimental results demonstrate our method outperforms conventional CNN and LSTM models on the PhysioNet-2019 CiC early sepsis prediction challenge in terms of area under receiver-operating curve and precision-recall curve, and further improves upon calibration of prediction scores.
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Summary

Early detection for sepsis, a high-mortality clinical condition, is important for improving patient outcomes. The performance of conventional deep learning methods degrades quickly as predictions are made several hours prior to the clinical definition. We adopt recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to improve early prediction of the onset of sepsis using...

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GraphChallenge.org sparse deep neural network performance [e-print]

Summary

The MIT/IEEE/Amazon GraphChallenge.org encourages community approaches to developing new solutions for analyzing graphs and sparse data. Sparse AI analytics present unique scalability difficulties. The Sparse Deep Neural Network (DNN) Challenge draws upon prior challenges from machine learning, high performance computing, and visual analytics to create a challenge that is reflective of emerging sparse AI systems. The sparse DNN challenge is based on a mathematically well-defined DNN inference computation and can be implemented in any programming environment. In 2019 several sparse DNN challenge submissions were received from a wide range of authors and organizations. This paper presents a performance analysis of the best performers of these submissions. These submissions show that their state-of-the-art sparse DNN execution time, TDNN, is a strong function of the number of DNN operations performed, Nop. The sparse DNN challenge provides a clear picture of current sparse DNN systems and underscores the need for new innovations to achieve high performance on very large sparse DNNs.
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Summary

The MIT/IEEE/Amazon GraphChallenge.org encourages community approaches to developing new solutions for analyzing graphs and sparse data. Sparse AI analytics present unique scalability difficulties. The Sparse Deep Neural Network (DNN) Challenge draws upon prior challenges from machine learning, high performance computing, and visual analytics to create a challenge that is reflective...

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Toward an autonomous aerial survey and planning system for humanitarian aid and disaster response

Summary

In this paper we propose an integrated system concept for autonomously surveying and planning emergency response for areas impacted by natural disasters. Referred to as AASAPS-HADR, this system is composed of a network of ground stations and autonomous aerial vehicles interconnected by an ad hoc emergency communication network. The system objectives are three-fold: to provide situational awareness of the evolving disaster event, to generate dispatch and routing plans for emergency vehicles, and to provide continuous communication networks which augment pre-existing communication infrastructure that may have been damaged or destroyed. Lacking development in previous literature, we give particular emphasis to the situational awareness objective of disaster response by proposing an autonomous aerial survey that is tasked with assessing damage to existing road networks, detecting and locating human victims, and providing a cursory assessment of casualty types that can be used to inform medical response priorities. In this paper we provide a high-level system design concept, identify existing AI perception and planning algorithms that most closely suit our purposes as well as technology gaps within those algorithms, and provide initial experimental results for non-contact health monitoring using real-time pose recognition algorithms running on a Nvidia Jetson TX2 mounted on board a quadrotor UAV. Finally we provide technology development recommendations for future phases of the AASAPS-HADR system.
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Summary

In this paper we propose an integrated system concept for autonomously surveying and planning emergency response for areas impacted by natural disasters. Referred to as AASAPS-HADR, this system is composed of a network of ground stations and autonomous aerial vehicles interconnected by an ad hoc emergency communication network. The system...

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AI data wrangling with associative arrays [e-print]

Published in:
Submitted to Northeast Database Day, NEDB 2020, https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.06731

Summary

The AI revolution is data driven. AI "data wrangling" is the process by which unusable data is transformed to support AI algorithm development (training) and deployment (inference). Significant time is devoted to translating diverse data representations supporting the many query and analysis steps found in an AI pipeline. Rigorous mathematical representations of these data enables data translation and analysis optimization within and across steps. Associative array algebra provides a mathematical foundation that naturally describes the tabular structures and set mathematics that are the basis of databases. Likewise, the matrix operations and corresponding inference/training calculations used by neural networks are also well described by associative arrays. More surprisingly, a general denormalized form of hierarchical formats, such as XML and JSON, can be readily constructed. Finally, pivot tables, which are among the most widely used data analysis tools, naturally emerge from associative array constructors. A common foundation in associative arrays provides interoperability guarantees, proving that their operations are linear systems with rigorous mathematical properties, such as, associativity, commutativity, and distributivity that are critical to reordering optimizations.
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Summary

The AI revolution is data driven. AI "data wrangling" is the process by which unusable data is transformed to support AI algorithm development (training) and deployment (inference). Significant time is devoted to translating diverse data representations supporting the many query and analysis steps found in an AI pipeline. Rigorous mathematical...

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Graph matching via multi-scale heat diffusion

Author:
Published in:
IEEE Intl. Conf. on Big Data, 9-12 December 2019.

Summary

We propose a novel graph matching algorithm that uses ideas from graph signal processing to match vertices of graphs using alternative graph representations. Specifically, we consider a multi-scale heat diffusion on the graphs to create multiple weighted graph representations that incorporate both direct adjacencies as well as local structures induced from the heat diffusion. Then a multi-objective optimization method is used to match vertices across all pairs of graph representations simultaneously. We show that our proposed algorithm performs significantly better than the algorithm that only uses the adjacency matrices, especially when the number of known latent alignments between vertices (seeds) is small. We test the algorithm on a set of graphs and show that at the low seed level, the proposed algorithm performs at least 15–35% better than the traditional graph matching algorithm.
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Summary

We propose a novel graph matching algorithm that uses ideas from graph signal processing to match vertices of graphs using alternative graph representations. Specifically, we consider a multi-scale heat diffusion on the graphs to create multiple weighted graph representations that incorporate both direct adjacencies as well as local structures induced...

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AI enabling technologies: a survey

Summary

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the opportunity to revolutionize the way the United States Department of Defense (DoD) and Intelligence Community (IC) address the challenges of evolving threats, data deluge, and rapid courses of action. Developing an end-to-end artificial intelligence system involves parallel development of different pieces that must work together in order to provide capabilities that can be used by decision makers, warfighters and analysts. These pieces include data collection, data conditioning, algorithms, computing, robust artificial intelligence, and human-machine teaming. While much of the popular press today surrounds advances in algorithms and computing, most modern AI systems leverage advances across numerous different fields. Further, while certain components may not be as visible to end-users as others, our experience has shown that each of these interrelated components play a major role in the success or failure of an AI system. This article is meant to highlight many of these technologies that are involved in an end-to-end AI system. The goal of this article is to provide readers with an overview of terminology, technical details and recent highlights from academia, industry and government. Where possible, we indicate relevant resources that can be used for further reading and understanding.
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Summary

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the opportunity to revolutionize the way the United States Department of Defense (DoD) and Intelligence Community (IC) address the challenges of evolving threats, data deluge, and rapid courses of action. Developing an end-to-end artificial intelligence system involves parallel development of different pieces that must work together...

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Artificial intelligence: short history, present developments, and future outlook, final report

Summary

The Director's Office at MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL) requested a comprehensive study on artificial intelligence (AI) focusing on present applications and future science and technology (S&T) opportunities in the Cyber Security and Information Sciences Division (Division 5). This report elaborates on the main results from the study. Since the AI field is evolving so rapidly, the study scope was to look at the recent past and ongoing developments to lead to a set of findings and recommendations. It was important to begin with a short AI history and a lay-of-the-land on representative developments across the Department of Defense (DoD), intelligence communities (IC), and Homeland Security. These areas are addressed in more detail within the report. A main deliverable from the study was to formulate an end-to-end AI canonical architecture that was suitable for a range of applications. The AI canonical architecture, formulated in the study, serves as the guiding framework for all the sections in this report. Even though the study primarily focused on cyber security and information sciences, the enabling technologies are broadly applicable to many other areas. Therefore, we dedicate a full section on enabling technologies in Section 3. The discussion on enabling technologies helps the reader clarify the distinction among AI, machine learning algorithms, and specific techniques to make an end-to-end AI system viable. In order to understand what is the lay-of-the-land in AI, study participants performed a fairly wide reach within MIT LL and external to the Laboratory (government, commercial companies, defense industrial base, peers, academia, and AI centers). In addition to the study participants (shown in the next section under acknowledgements), we also assembled an internal review team (IRT). The IRT was extremely helpful in providing feedback and in helping with the formulation of the study briefings, as we transitioned from datagathering mode to the study synthesis. The format followed throughout the study was to highlight relevant content that substantiates the study findings, and identify a set of recommendations. An important finding is the significant AI investment by the so-called "big 6" commercial companies. These major commercial companies are Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, and IBM. They dominate in the AI ecosystem research and development (R&D) investments within the U.S. According to a recent McKinsey Global Institute report, cumulative R&D investment in AI amounts to about $30 billion per year. This amount is substantially higher than the R&D investment within the DoD, IC, and Homeland Security. Therefore, the DoD will need to be very strategic about investing where needed, while at the same time leveraging the technologies already developed and available from a wide range of commercial applications. As we will discuss in Section 1 as part of the AI history, MIT LL has been instrumental in developing advanced AI capabilities. For example, MIT LL has a long history in the development of human language technologies (HLT) by successfully applying machine learning algorithms to difficult problems in speech recognition, machine translation, and speech understanding. Section 4 elaborates on prior applications of these technologies, as well as newer applications in the context of multi-modalities (e.g., speech, text, images, and video). An end-to-end AI system is very well suited to enhancing the capabilities of human language analysis. Section 5 discusses AI's nascent role in cyber security. There have been cases where AI has already provided important benefits. However, much more research is needed in both the application of AI to cyber security and the associated vulnerability to the so-called adversarial AI. Adversarial AI is an area very critical to the DoD, IC, and Homeland Security, where malicious adversaries can disrupt AI systems and make them untrusted in operational environments. This report concludes with specific recommendations by formulating the way forward for Division 5 and a discussion of S&T challenges and opportunities. The S&T challenges and opportunities are centered on the key elements of the AI canonical architecture to strengthen the AI capabilities across the DoD, IC, and Homeland Security in support of national security.
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Summary

The Director's Office at MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL) requested a comprehensive study on artificial intelligence (AI) focusing on present applications and future science and technology (S&T) opportunities in the Cyber Security and Information Sciences Division (Division 5). This report elaborates on the main results from the study. Since the...

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Detection and characterization of human trafficking networks using unsupervised scalable text template matching

Summary

Human trafficking is a form of modern-day slavery affecting an estimated 40 million victims worldwide, primarily through the commercial sexual exploitation of women and children. In the last decade, the advertising of victims has moved from the streets to websites on the Internet, providing greater efficiency and anonymity for sex traffickers. This shift has allowed traffickers to list their victims in multiple geographic areas simultaneously, while also improving operational security by using multiple methods of electronic communication with buyers; complicating the ability of law enforcement to disrupt these illicit organizations. In this paper, we address this issue and present a novel unsupervised and scalable template matching algorithm for analyzing and detecting complex organizations operating on adult service websites. The algorithm uses only the advertisement content to uncover signature patterns in text that are indicative of organized activities and organizational structure. We apply this method to a large corpus of adult service advertisements retrieved from backpage.com, and show that the networks identified through the algorithm match well with surrogate truth data derived from phone number networks in the same corpus. Further exploration of the results show that the proposed method provides deeper insights into the complex structures of sex trafficking organizations, not possible through networks derived from phone numbers alone. This method provides a powerful new capability for law enforcement to more completely identify and gather evidence about trafficking networks and their operations.
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Summary

Human trafficking is a form of modern-day slavery affecting an estimated 40 million victims worldwide, primarily through the commercial sexual exploitation of women and children. In the last decade, the advertising of victims has moved from the streets to websites on the Internet, providing greater efficiency and anonymity for sex...

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Neural network topologies for sparse training

Published in:
https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.05242

Summary

The sizes of deep neural networks (DNNs) are rapidly outgrowing the capacity of hardware to store and train them. Research over the past few decades has explored the prospect of sparsifying DNNs before, during, and after training by pruning edges from the underlying topology. The resulting neural network is known as a sparse neural network. More recent work has demonstrated the remarkable result that certain sparse DNNs can train to the same precision as dense DNNs at lower runtime and storage cost. An intriguing class of these sparse DNNs is the X-Nets, which are initialized and trained upon a sparse topology with neither reference to a parent dense DNN nor subsequent pruning. We present an algorithm that deterministically generates sparse DNN topologies that, as a whole, are much more diverse than X-Net topologies, while preserving X-Nets' desired characteristics.
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Summary

The sizes of deep neural networks (DNNs) are rapidly outgrowing the capacity of hardware to store and train them. Research over the past few decades has explored the prospect of sparsifying DNNs before, during, and after training by pruning edges from the underlying topology. The resulting neural network is known...

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