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Aircraft collision avoidance using Monte Carlo real-time belief space search

Published in:
J. Intell. Robot. Syst., Vol. 64, No. 2, 2011, pp. 277-98.

Summary

The aircraft collision avoidance problem can be formulated using a decision-theoretic planning framework where the optimal behavior requires balancing the competing objectives of avoiding collision and adhering to a flight plan. Due to noise in the sensor measurements and the stochasticity of intruder state trajectories, a natural representation of the problem is as a partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP), where the underlying state of the system is Markovian and the observations depend probabilistically on the state. Many algorithms for finding approximate solutions to POMDPs exist in the literature, but they typically require discretization of the state and observation spaces. This paper investigates the introduction of a sample-based representation of state uncertainty to an existing algorithm called Real-Time Belief Space Search (RTBSS), which leverages branch-and-bound pruning to make searching the belief space for the optimal action more efficient. The resulting algorithm, called Monte Carlo Real-Time Belief Space Search (MC-RTBSS), is demonstrated on encounter scenarios in simulation using a beacon-based surveillance system and a probabilistic intruder model derived from recorded radar data.
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Summary

The aircraft collision avoidance problem can be formulated using a decision-theoretic planning framework where the optimal behavior requires balancing the competing objectives of avoiding collision and adhering to a flight plan. Due to noise in the sensor measurements and the stochasticity of intruder state trajectories, a natural representation of the...

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Robust airborne collision avoidance through dynamic programming

Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-371

Summary

The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) uses an on-board beacon radar to monitor the local air traffic and logic to determine when to alert pilots to potential conflict. The current TCAS logic was the result of many years of development and involved the careful engineering of many heuristic rules specified in pseudocode. Unfortunately, due to the complexity of the logic, it is difficult to revise the pseudocode to accommodate the evolution of the airspace and the introduction of new technologies and procedures. This report summarizes recent advances in computational techniques for automatically deriving the optimal logic with respect to a probabilistic model and a set of performance metrics. Simulations demonstrate how this new approach results in logic that significantly outperforms TCAS according to the standard safety and operational performance metrics.
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Summary

The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) uses an on-board beacon radar to monitor the local air traffic and logic to determine when to alert pilots to potential conflict. The current TCAS logic was the result of many years of development and involved the careful engineering of many heuristic...

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MIT Lincoln Laboratory TCAS surveillance performance

Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-370

Summary

The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) Version 7 surveillance requirements were developed in the mid-1990s with the use of limited radar data. Recently, a more comprehensive radar data source has become available, enabling a thorough analysis of TCAS surveillance performance throughouth the National Airspace System (NAS). This paper characterizes six high traffic terminal environments over three months. A busy one hour period was selected from each location for density and equipage measurements. This paper then describes the use of a high fidelity simulation to characterize TCAS surveillance performance in the isx locations. Transponder utilization due to TCAS and TCAS surveillance range are compared with the design requirements, including interference limiting specifications. The effect of TCAS surveillance activity on Air Traffic Control (ATC) ground radar performance is also investigated. Results indicate that the surveillance algorithms perform as intended and that TCAS has a minimal impact on ground radar. Areas of concern are noted for future investigation.
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Summary

The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) Version 7 surveillance requirements were developed in the mid-1990s with the use of limited radar data. Recently, a more comprehensive radar data source has become available, enabling a thorough analysis of TCAS surveillance performance throughouth the National Airspace System (NAS). This paper...

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Analysis of ground-based radar low-altitude wind-shear detection in OEP terminal airspace for NextGen

Author:
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-375

Summary

To support the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), the Reduce Weather Impact Sensor RightSizing program is identifying and analyzing gaps in the current sensor network coverage relative to the Four-Dimensional Weather Data Cube Single Authoritative Source performance requirements. In this study, we look for shortfalls in low-altitude wind-shear sensing by ground-based radars and lidar in the NextGen super-density operations (SDO) terminal airspace. Specifically, 2D gridded wind-shear visibility (an upper bound to detection probability) data are generated for microbursts and gust fronts separately for different sensors, namely the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar, Next Generation Weather Radar, Airport Surveillance Radar-9 with Weather Systems Processor, and Doppler lidar.
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Summary

To support the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), the Reduce Weather Impact Sensor RightSizing program is identifying and analyzing gaps in the current sensor network coverage relative to the Four-Dimensional Weather Data Cube Single Authoritative Source performance requirements. In this study, we look for shortfalls in low-altitude wind-shear sensing...

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Robustness of optimized collision avoidance logic to modeling errors

Published in:
29th Digital Avionics System Conf., 3-7 October 2010.

Summary

Collision avoidance systems, whether for manned or unmanned aircraft, must reliably prevent collision while minimizing alerts. Deciding what action to execute at a particular instant may be framed as a multiple-objective optimization problem that can be solved offline by computers. Prior work has explored methods of efficiently computing the optimal collision avoidance logic from a probabilistic model of aircraft behavior and a cost function. One potential concern with using a probabilistic model to construct the logic is that the model may not adequately represent the real world. Inaccuracies in the model could lead to vulnerabilities in the system when deployed. This paper evaluates the robustness of collision avoidance optimization to modeling errors.
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Summary

Collision avoidance systems, whether for manned or unmanned aircraft, must reliably prevent collision while minimizing alerts. Deciding what action to execute at a particular instant may be framed as a multiple-objective optimization problem that can be solved offline by computers. Prior work has explored methods of efficiently computing the optimal...

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A statistical learning approach to the modeling of aircraft taxi time

Published in:
29th Digital Avionics Systems Conf., 3 October 2010.

Summary

Modeling aircraft taxi operations is an important element in understanding current airport performance and where opportunities may lie for improvements. A statistical learning approach to modeling aircraft taxi time is presented in this paper. This approach allows efficient identification of relatively simple and easily interpretable models of aircraft taxi time, which are shown to yield remarkably accurate predictions when tested on actual data.
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Summary

Modeling aircraft taxi operations is an important element in understanding current airport performance and where opportunities may lie for improvements. A statistical learning approach to modeling aircraft taxi time is presented in this paper. This approach allows efficient identification of relatively simple and easily interpretable models of aircraft taxi time...

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Field & (data) stream: a method for functional evolution of the Air Traffic Management Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT)

Published in:
HFES 2010, Proc. of the 54th Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Mtg., 27 September 2010, pp. 104-108.

Summary

A method coupling field evaluation with operations data analysis is presented as an effective means to functionally evolve a decision support system. The case study used to illustrate this method is the evaluation of the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT), a decision support tool to improve departure efficiency in convective weather in New York air traffic facilities. It was only through a combination of quantitative performance data analysis and field observations to identify key elements of the decision making process that the designers were able to determine the most critical departure management decision requiring support, leading to significant improvements in departure efficiency.
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Summary

A method coupling field evaluation with operations data analysis is presented as an effective means to functionally evolve a decision support system. The case study used to illustrate this method is the evaluation of the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT), a decision support tool to improve departure efficiency in convective...

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A decision-theoretic approach to developing robust collision avoidance logic

Published in:
2010 13th Int. IEEE Annual Conf. on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 19-22 September 2010, pp. 1837-1842.

Summary

All large transport aircraft are required to be equipped with a collision avoidance system that instructs pilots how to maneuver to avoid collision with other aircraft. The uncertainty in the behavior of the intruding aircraft makes developing a robust collision avoidance logic challenging. This paper presents an automated approach for optimizing collision avoidance logic based on probabilistic models of aircraft behavior and a performance metric that balances the competing objectives of maximizing safety and minimizing alert rate. The approach involves framing the problem of collision avoidance as a Markov decision process that is solved using dynamic programming. Although this paper focuses on airborne collision avoidance for manned aircraft, the methods may be applied to collision avoidance for other categories of vehicles, both manned and unmanned.
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Summary

All large transport aircraft are required to be equipped with a collision avoidance system that instructs pilots how to maneuver to avoid collision with other aircraft. The uncertainty in the behavior of the intruding aircraft makes developing a robust collision avoidance logic challenging. This paper presents an automated approach for...

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Assessment and interpretation of en route Weather Avoidance Fields from the Convective Weather Avoidance Model

Published in:
ATIO 2010: 10th AIAA Aviation Technology Integration and Operations Conf., 13-15 September 2010.

Summary

This paper presents the results of a study to quantify the performance of Weather Avoidance Fields in predicting the operational impact of convective weather on en route airspace. The Convective Weather Avoidance Model identifies regions of convective weather that pilots are likely to avoid based upon an examination of the planned and actual flight trajectories in regions of weather impact. From this model and a forecast of convective weather from the Corridor Integrated Weather System a probabilistic Weather Avoidance Field can be provided to automated decision support systems of the future impact of weather on the air traffic control system. This paper will present three alternative spatial filters for the Convective Weather Avoidance Model, quantify their performance, address deficiencies in performance, and suggest potential improvements by looking at the ATC environment and common situational awareness between the cockpit and air traffic control.
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Summary

This paper presents the results of a study to quantify the performance of Weather Avoidance Fields in predicting the operational impact of convective weather on en route airspace. The Convective Weather Avoidance Model identifies regions of convective weather that pilots are likely to avoid based upon an examination of the...

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An algorithm to identify robust convective weather avoidance polygons in en route airspace

Published in:
ATIO 2010: 10th AIAA Aviation Technology Integration and Operations Conf., 13-15 September 2010.

Summary

The paper describes an algorithm for constructing convective weather avoidance polygons. The algorithm combines weather avoidance fields (WAF) from the en route convective weather avoidance model (CWAM) with edges automatically detected in the echo tops field, clustering, convex hull fitting and wind data to build weather avoidance polygons. Results for 2 case days with significantly different weather patterns were classified and studied.
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Summary

The paper describes an algorithm for constructing convective weather avoidance polygons. The algorithm combines weather avoidance fields (WAF) from the en route convective weather avoidance model (CWAM) with edges automatically detected in the echo tops field, clustering, convex hull fitting and wind data to build weather avoidance polygons. Results for...

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