Publications
An assessment of the operational utility of a GOES lightning mapping sensor
May 28, 2013
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report NOAA-18A
Summary
This report evaluates the incremental operational benefits of a proposed Lightning Mapping Sensor (LMS) for NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). If deployed, LMS would provide continuous, real-time surveillance of total lightning activity over large portions of the North and South American continents and surrounding oceans. In contrast to the current National Lightning Detection Network, LMS would monitor total lightning activity, including the dominant intracloud component which is estimated to occur with order of magnitude greater frequency than cloud-to-ground lightning and may occur ten minutes or more in advance of a storm's first ground flash.
Summary
This report evaluates the incremental operational benefits of a proposed Lightning Mapping Sensor (LMS) for NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). If deployed, LMS would provide continuous, real-time surveillance of total lightning activity over large portions of the North and South American continents and surrounding oceans. In contrast to the...
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Airport surface traffic management decision support - perspectives based on tower flight data manager prototype
May 20, 2013
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-398
Summary
This report describes accomplishments and insights gathererd during the development of decision support tools as part of the Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) program. This work was performed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory and sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The TFDM program integrated flight data, aircraft surveillance, information on weather and traffic flow constraints, and other data required to optimize airport conguration and arrival/departure management functions. The prototype has been evaluated in both human-in-the-loop simulations, and during operational tests at Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport. In parallel, the Laboratory estimated future national operational benefits for TFDM decision support functions, using analysis and performance data gathered from major airports in the US. This analysis indicated that the greatest potential operational benefits would come from decision support tools that facilitate: i) managing runway queues and sequences, ii) tactical management of flight routes and times, impacted by weather and traffic constraints, and iii) managing airport configuration changes. Evaluation of TFDM prototype decision support functions in each of these areas provided valuable insights relative to the maturity of current capabilities and research needed to close performance gaps.
Summary
This report describes accomplishments and insights gathererd during the development of decision support tools as part of the Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) program. This work was performed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory and sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The TFDM program integrated flight data, aircraft surveillance, information on...
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Wind information requirements for NextGen applications phase 1: 4D-trajectory based operations (4D-TBO)
February 20, 2013
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-399
Summary
Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework has been developed to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is described and then applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using simplified versions of the framework's elements to demonstrate its utility. Realistic ranges of wind information accuracy in terms of wind forecast and Flight Management System wind representation errors are studied. Their impacts on 4D-TBO performance in terms of Required Time of Arrival compliance and fuel burn are presented. Interpretations of the findings to give insights on wind information requirements are provided, together with an outline of the planned next phase of the study to further refine the outputs.
Summary
Accurate wind information is required to support some of the key applications envisioned for future air traffic concepts. A Wind Information Analysis Framework has been developed to assess wind information needs for different applications. The framework is described and then applied in a Four-Dimensional Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) application using...
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Convective initiation forecasts through the use of machine learning methods
January 9, 2013
Conference Paper
Published in:
11th Conf. on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences, 9 January 2013.
Summary
Storm initiation is a very challenging aspect of nowcasting. Rapidly forming storms that appear in areas of little to no pre-existing convection can pose a danger to aircraft, and have the potential to cause unforeseen delays in the national airspace system (NAS). As such, detection and prediction of the initial development of convective storms is critical to NAS operations and planning. The Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) currently provides deterministic 0-2 hour storm forecasts over the NAS, and represents the 0-2 hour portion of the 0-8 hour deterministic CoSPA storm forecasts. CIWS includes a convective initiation (CI) module, however this module has difficulty initiating convection in areas of little or no pre-existing convection. In this study, we seek to improve the capabilities of the CI module using machine learning methods to detect regions of imminent convection and enhance the storm initiation to the 0-2 hour forecast. Improvements to the current CI detection capabilities will prove to be a benefit in the short term, as well in the longer term plans of the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to improve the capabilities of the CI module in CIWS, data from a variety of sources are fused together to produce a forecast of CI. Data incorporated into the CI algorithm include: Satellite fields from NASA's Satellite Convective Analysis and Tracking (SATCAST), convective instability fields, and a collection of numerical models which includes NOAA's North America Rapid Refresh Ensemble Time Lag System (NARRE-TL), the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP), Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF), and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model forecasts. These fields are brought together in a machine learning framework to create a probabilistic model which is used to initiate new growth in the deterministic CIWS 0-2 hour forecast. A variety of machine learning classifiers, including logistic regression, neural networks, support vector machines, and random forests, are used to investigate which technique works best with the data available. The skill of this updated CI capability is being assessed over the summer of 2012 using multiple skill metrics including CSI, bias and fraction skill score.
Summary
Storm initiation is a very challenging aspect of nowcasting. Rapidly forming storms that appear in areas of little to no pre-existing convection can pose a danger to aircraft, and have the potential to cause unforeseen delays in the national airspace system (NAS). As such, detection and prediction of the initial...
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Tower Flight Data Manager benefits assessment: initial investment decision interim report
November 19, 2012
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-394
Topic:
R&D area:
R&D group:
Summary
This document provides an overview of MIT Lincoln Laboratory's activities in support of the interim stage of the Initial Investment Decision benefits assessment for the Tower Flight Data Manager. It outlines the rationale for the focus areas, and the background, methodology, and scope in the focus areas of departure metering, sequence optimization, airport configuration optimization, and safety assessment. Estimates of the potential benefits enabled by TFDM deployment are presented for each of these areas for a subset of airports and conditions considered within the scope of the analyses. These benefits are monetized where possible. Recommendations for follow-on work, for example, to support future benefits assessment efforts for TFDM, are also discussed.
Summary
This document provides an overview of MIT Lincoln Laboratory's activities in support of the interim stage of the Initial Investment Decision benefits assessment for the Tower Flight Data Manager. It outlines the rationale for the focus areas, and the background, methodology, and scope in the focus areas of departure metering...
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Multifunction Phased Array Radar wind shear experiment
November 5, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
26th Conf. on Sever Local Storms, 5-8 November 2012.
Summary
Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TDWRs) provide near-ground wind shear detection that is critical for aircraft safety at 46 airports across the United States. These systems are part of the larger network of 510 weather and aircraft surveillance radars owned and operated by government agencies in the continental United States. As the TDWR and other radar systems approach their engineering design life cycles, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Weather Service (NWS), and Department of Defense (DoD) are considering potential replacement systems (OFCM 2006; Weber et al. 2007). One option under consideration that would maintain the current airspace coverage is a replacement network of 334 Multifunction Phased Array Radars (MPARs) (Weber et al. 2007). The MPAR network described by Weber et al. (2007) would include two classes of systems: A high-resolution, full-scale version with an 8-m diameter antenna, and a lower-resolution terminal version with a 4-m diameter antenna, termed Terminal MPAR, or TMPAR. As the proposed TMPAR design has lower azimuthal beam resolution and less sensitivity than TDWRs, it is crucial to determine the impacts of that design on the detection of low-altitude wind shear. The design of the SPY-1A PAR, a research radar at the National Weather Radar Test Bed in Norman, Oklahoma (Zrnić et al. 2007), makes it a good proxy for examining the potential wind shear detection performance of the TMPAR. Therefore, in spring 2012, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Severe Storms Laboratory organized and executed the MPAR Wind Shear Experiment (WSE) in collaboration with the FAA, NOAA's NWS Radar Operations Center, the University of Oklahoma Advanced Radar Research Center (OU ARRC), and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL). The primary objective of the MPAR WSE was to collect low-altitude observations with the SPY-1A PAR (hereafter, PAR) for comparison with observations from the nearby Oklahoma City (OKC) TDWR. Of particular interest is comparison of MIT LL wind shear detection algorithm performance using data from these two radars; this analysis is reported in Cho et al. (2013). Data were also collected from other radars in central Oklahoma to facilitate basic research on microbursts and other wind-producing storms. This paper provides an overview of the MPAR WSE and observed wind shear events.
Summary
Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TDWRs) provide near-ground wind shear detection that is critical for aircraft safety at 46 airports across the United States. These systems are part of the larger network of 510 weather and aircraft surveillance radars owned and operated by government agencies in the continental United States. As...
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Shared information access services in SWIM segment 2: an architectural assessment
October 31, 2012
Project Report
Published in:
MIT Lincoln Laboratory Report ATC-383
Summary
The System Wide Information Management (SWIM) program is a foundational program for the Federal Aviation Administration?s (FAA) Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) initiative, with a goal of providing a common, scalable information management infrastructure. Though some benefits were realized in SWIM Segment 1 from the use of common software infrastructure components (i.e., the Progress FUSE software suite), the actual reuse of service interfaces was limited. The focus of SWIM Segment 2 is increasingly on shared services, with a goal of improved interoperability as well as increased software reuse. This report focuses on shared data access services, based on lessons learned in the SWIM Segment 1 Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) SWIM Implementing Program (SIP) activity, the NextGen Network-Enabled Weather (NNEW) program, and a number of other Laboratory net-centric programs. The applicability of other information sharing architectures, such as the Web and content delivery overlay networks, to SWIM is also assessed. Based on this assessment, a number of recommendations are suggested to facilitate the development of shared services that are flexible enough to respond quickly to evolving NextGen requirements, while at the same time minimizing the overall SWIM software "footprint."
Summary
The System Wide Information Management (SWIM) program is a foundational program for the Federal Aviation Administration?s (FAA) Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) initiative, with a goal of providing a common, scalable information management infrastructure. Though some benefits were realized in SWIM Segment 1 from the use of common software...
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Characterization of traffic and structure in the U.S. airport network
October 24, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
CIDU 2012: Conf. on Intelligent Data Understanding, 24-26 October, 2012.
Summary
In this paper we seek to characterize traffic in the U.S. air transportation system, and to subsequently develop improved models of traffic demand. We model the air traffic within the U.S. national airspace system as dynamic weighted network. We employ techniques advanced by work in complex networks over the past several years in characterizing the structure and dynamics of the U.S. airport network. We show that the airport network is more dynamic over successive days than has been previously reported. The network has some properties that appear stationary over time, while others exhibit a high degree of variation. We characterize the network and its dynamics using structural measures such as degree distributions and clustering coefficients. We employ spectral analysis to show that dominant eigenvectors of the network are nearly stationary with time. We use this observation to suggest how low dimensional models of traffic demand in the airport network can be fashioned.
Summary
In this paper we seek to characterize traffic in the U.S. air transportation system, and to subsequently develop improved models of traffic demand. We model the air traffic within the U.S. national airspace system as dynamic weighted network. We employ techniques advanced by work in complex networks over the past...
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Cognitive workload and visual attention analyses of the air traffic control Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) prototype demonstration
October 22, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
HFES 2012, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 56th Annual Mtg., 22-26 October 2012.
Summary
This paper presents two methods of analyzing air traffic controller activity: cognitive workload measurement through the novel comparison of controller-pilot verbal communications, and visual attention quantification through manual eye gaze analysis. These analyses were performed as part of an evaluation of the Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) prototype system. Cognitive workload analyses revealed that, when comparing participant controllers utilizing TFDM to a control group utilizing existing air traffic control (ATC) equipment, participants issued commands sooner than the control, and thus were perceived to have a lower workload. While visual attention data were not available for the control group, analyses of participant gaze data revealed 81.9% of time was spent in a head-down position, and 17.2% of time was spent head-up. Results are related back to system inefficiencies to find potential areas of improvement in design.
Summary
This paper presents two methods of analyzing air traffic controller activity: cognitive workload measurement through the novel comparison of controller-pilot verbal communications, and visual attention quantification through manual eye gaze analysis. These analyses were performed as part of an evaluation of the Tower Flight Data Manager (TFDM) prototype system. Cognitive...
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Estimating the monetizable safety benefits of prototype air traffic control technologies
October 22, 2012
Conference Paper
Published in:
HFES 2012, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 56th Annual Mtg., 22-26 October 2012.
Summary
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) utilizes a formal investment analysis process to support the development, procurement and deployment of new air traffic control technologies. It is often unclear how to estimate the impacts of a new technology on aviation safety, both in terms of the probability that incidents and accidents could be prevented and in terms of the potential financial savings associated with reduced aircraft damage and personal injuries. With this in mind, the focus of this paper is twofold: (1) demonstrating the application of a method for generating probabilistic estimates of safety benefits for a future air traffic control technology, and (2) monetizing and extrapolating safety impacts from historical data to provide a quantitative estimate of savings over the lifetime of a new technology. The technologies explored in this analysis involve electronic flight data, enhanced surveillance and decision support tools for the air traffic control tower environment. From this initial analysis, the estimated total monetizable safety benefit of deploying all of these capabilities in a new system with an expected 2015-2035 lifetime across a set of major airports in the US ranges from $155 million to $2.1 billion. Implications of key data assumptions driving the lower and upper-bound estimates are discussed.
Summary
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) utilizes a formal investment analysis process to support the development, procurement and deployment of new air traffic control technologies. It is often unclear how to estimate the impacts of a new technology on aviation safety, both in terms of the probability that incidents and accidents...
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